The Supreme Court’s June 2026 decision to grant certiorari in consolidated challenges to assault-weapons bans in Cook County, Illinois, and Connecticut has become the central driver of trader views on whether the justices will invalidate AR-15 restrictions. With oral arguments expected in the fall term and a ruling possible by mid-2027, the 6-3 conservative majority’s post-Bruen expansion of Second Amendment protections, plus prior statements from Justices Kavanaugh, Thomas, Alito, and Gorsuch questioning such bans, supports a narrow trader consensus favoring invalidation at 55.5%. Lower courts upheld the laws under historical-tradition review, but the Court’s recent gun-rights rulings and the rifles’ widespread lawful use create competing pressures that keep the outcome closely contested.