Trader consensus around 4–5.5 million total ballots in Pennsylvania’s November gubernatorial contest stems from the lopsided matchup between incumbent Democrat Josh Shapiro and Republican Stacy Garrity. Polling averages show Shapiro ahead by roughly 15–20 points, a margin that historically dampens turnout in off-year races. Primary participation already signaled uneven enthusiasm, with Democrats casting about 1.1 million votes versus roughly 640,000 for Republicans. Mobilization efforts in Philadelphia suburbs, Pittsburgh metro areas, and central Pennsylvania rural counties, combined with standard registration levels and early-voting patterns, keep the most likely ranges tightly clustered. Any surge in independent or cross-party participation or shifts in campaign intensity could push totals higher or lower within the narrow band.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourÉlection du gouverneur de Pennsylvanie : participation
Élection du gouverneur de Pennsylvanie : participation
5M-5,5M 24%
4M-4,5M 19%
4,5M-5M 19%
6,5 M+ 13%
<4M
1%
4M-4,5M
19%
4,5M-5M
19%
5M-5,5M
23%
5,5M-6M
5%
6M-6,5M
13%
6,5 M+
13%
5M-5,5M 24%
4M-4,5M 19%
4,5M-5M 19%
6,5 M+ 13%
<4M
1%
4M-4,5M
19%
4,5M-5M
19%
5M-5,5M
23%
5,5M-6M
5%
6M-6,5M
13%
6,5 M+
13%
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the results of the specified election are not definitively known by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
All votes certified for candidates or non-candidate options in the specified election are included. Invalidated or blank votes are not included. In ranked-choice or preferential systems, the first-round vote total will be used.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 midterm election for Governor of Pennsylvania, as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Marché ouvert : Aug 18, 2026, 10:23 AM ET
Résolveur
0x69c47De9D...If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the results of the specified election are not definitively known by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
All votes certified for candidates or non-candidate options in the specified election are included. Invalidated or blank votes are not included. In ranked-choice or preferential systems, the first-round vote total will be used.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 midterm election for Governor of Pennsylvania, as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Résolveur
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus around 4–5.5 million total ballots in Pennsylvania’s November gubernatorial contest stems from the lopsided matchup between incumbent Democrat Josh Shapiro and Republican Stacy Garrity. Polling averages show Shapiro ahead by roughly 15–20 points, a margin that historically dampens turnout in off-year races. Primary participation already signaled uneven enthusiasm, with Democrats casting about 1.1 million votes versus roughly 640,000 for Republicans. Mobilization efforts in Philadelphia suburbs, Pittsburgh metro areas, and central Pennsylvania rural counties, combined with standard registration levels and early-voting patterns, keep the most likely ranges tightly clustered. Any surge in independent or cross-party participation or shifts in campaign intensity could push totals higher or lower within the narrow band.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourConnexes
Le nombre total de votes exprimés lors des élections de mi-mandat de 2026 pour le poste de gouverneur du Maryland sera-t-il inférieur à 1 550 000 ?
Le nombre total de votes exprimés lors de l'élection de mi-mandat 2026 pour le poste de gouverneur de Californie sera-t-il de 14 500 000 ou plus ?
Le nombre total de votes exprimés lors des élections de mi-mandat 2026 pour le poste de gouverneur de l'Arizona sera-t-il compris entre 2 450 000 et 2 600 000 ?
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