Alphabet's roughly $4.2 trillion market capitalization as of mid-August 2026 substantially exceeds the combined private valuations of OpenAI ($852 billion post-March funding) and Anthropic (approximately $965 billion post-May Series H), creating a wide gap that underpins the 92% market-implied odds for Google. Traders price in Alphabet's diversified revenue streams from search, cloud, and advertising alongside its established public-market liquidity, while viewing the AI startups' rapid revenue growth—Anthropic pacing toward $100 billion annualized run rate—as insufficient to close the valuation differential by year-end. Potential IPOs for both OpenAI and Anthropic in the second half of 2026 introduce upside scenarios, yet even aggressive targets near $1–2 trillion each would likely leave the pair below Alphabet's capitalization given typical post-IPO trading dynamics and the remaining months until December 31. Market-implied odds reflect this structural lead, tempered by the possibility of outsized IPO multiples or accelerated growth that narrows the spread.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourOpenAI + Anthropic
8% chance
NOUVEAU
NOUVEAU
1 janv. 2027
OpenAI + Anthropic
8% chance
NOUVEAU
NOUVEAU
1 janv. 2027
This market will resolve to "OpenAI + Anthropic" if the combined private market valuation of Anthropic and OpenAI is larger than Google's market capitalization on December 31, 2026, or to "Google" if Google's market capitalization exceeds that combined valuation.
NPM Prices are published for trading days only and are updated once daily at 1:00 PM ET on the following calendar day.
If NPM has not published relevant data for the specified date by 1:00 PM ET on January 1, 2027, this market may remain open until 11:59 PM ET on January 4, 2027. If no further data is released by that time, the market will resolve according to the data available.
If NPM ceases publishing relevant data prior to the specified date, this market will resolve based on the NPM data published prior to the cessation of coverage, as well as applicable public market capitalization data following an IPO or direct listing.
If a private company completes an IPO or direct listing prior to the specified date, this market will resolve according to the company’s public market capitalization at the market close of the specified date or the most recent trading day.
Public market capitalization will be determined using the final official regular-hour trading price published for the company’s primary listed common equity on its primary exchange for the specified date or the most recent trading day, multiplied by the company’s total outstanding common shares at the relevant time.
If the listed company merges with or acquires another entity and remains the parent company, no change to resolution methodology applies.
If a listed company is acquired, merges into another entity and is no longer the surviving parent company, or otherwise ceases to exist as an independent entity prior to the end of the period, only the last NPM valuation and applicable public market capitalization achieved prior to completion of the transaction will be considered for resolution. No transaction, acquisition, or merger consideration will be considered for resolution.
The resolution source for this market is NPM data published here (https://fe.secondmarket.com/companies/company-30839e0b-2730-4495-839f-1bf638fa9cca/data?return_url=https://poly.havingsomuch.fun/finance/privates) and here (https://fe.secondmarket.com/companies/company-3e197763-4ff8-4d8c-bd1f-cc2792937757/data?return_url=https://poly.havingsomuch.fun/finance/privates). The resolution source for any period following an IPO, direct listing, or relevant corporate action, will be official exchange trading data and publicly reported share counts.
If Anthropic and OpenAI’s combined valuation is equal to Google’s public market capitalization at resolution, this market will resolve to 50-50.
Revisions to previously published NPM data made after their initial release will not be considered, unless made to correct clearly erroneous data.Alphabet's roughly $4.2 trillion market capitalization as of mid-August 2026 substantially exceeds the combined private valuations of OpenAI ($852 billion post-March funding) and Anthropic (approximately $965 billion post-May Series H), creating a wide gap that underpins the 92% market-implied odds for Google. Traders price in Alphabet's diversified revenue streams from search, cloud, and advertising alongside its established public-market liquidity, while viewing the AI startups' rapid revenue growth—Anthropic pacing toward $100 billion annualized run rate—as insufficient to close the valuation differential by year-end. Potential IPOs for both OpenAI and Anthropic in the second half of 2026 introduce upside scenarios, yet even aggressive targets near $1–2 trillion each would likely leave the pair below Alphabet's capitalization given typical post-IPO trading dynamics and the remaining months until December 31. Market-implied odds reflect this structural lead, tempered by the possibility of outsized IPO multiples or accelerated growth that narrows the spread.
This market will resolve to "OpenAI + Anthropic" if the combined private market valuation of Anthropic and OpenAI is larger than Google's market capitalization on December 31, 2026, or to "Google" if Google's market capitalization exceeds that combined valuation.
NPM Prices are published for trading days only and are updated once daily at 1:00 PM ET on the following calendar day.
If NPM has not published relevant data for the specified date by 1:00 PM ET on January 1, 2027, this market may remain open until 11:59 PM ET on January 4, 2027. If no further data is released by that time, the market will resolve according to the data available.
If NPM ceases publishing relevant data prior to the specified date, this market will resolve based on the NPM data published prior to the cessation of coverage, as well as applicable public market capitalization data following an IPO or direct listing.
If a private company completes an IPO or direct listing prior to the specified date, this market will resolve according to the company’s public market capitalization at the market close of the specified date or the most recent trading day.
Public market capitalization will be determined using the final official regular-hour trading price published for the company’s primary listed common equity on its primary exchange for the specified date or the most recent trading day, multiplied by the company’s total outstanding common shares at the relevant time.
If the listed company merges with or acquires another entity and remains the parent company, no change to resolution methodology applies.
If a listed company is acquired, merges into another entity and is no longer the surviving parent company, or otherwise ceases to exist as an independent entity prior to the end of the period, only the last NPM valuation and applicable public market capitalization achieved prior to completion of the transaction will be considered for resolution. No transaction, acquisition, or merger consideration will be considered for resolution.
The resolution source for this market is NPM data published here (https://fe.secondmarket.com/companies/company-30839e0b-2730-4495-839f-1bf638fa9cca/data?return_url=https://poly.havingsomuch.fun/finance/privates) and here (https://fe.secondmarket.com/companies/company-3e197763-4ff8-4d8c-bd1f-cc2792937757/data?return_url=https://poly.havingsomuch.fun/finance/privates). The resolution source for any period following an IPO, direct listing, or relevant corporate action, will be official exchange trading data and publicly reported share counts.
If Anthropic and OpenAI’s combined valuation is equal to Google’s public market capitalization at resolution, this market will resolve to 50-50.
Revisions to previously published NPM data made after their initial release will not be considered, unless made to correct clearly erroneous data.
NPM Prices are published for trading days only and are updated once daily at 1:00 PM ET on the following calendar day.
If NPM has not published relevant data for the specified date by 1:00 PM ET on January 1, 2027, this market may remain open until 11:59 PM ET on January 4, 2027. If no further data is released by that time, the market will resolve according to the data available.
If NPM ceases publishing relevant data prior to the specified date, this market will resolve based on the NPM data published prior to the cessation of coverage, as well as applicable public market capitalization data following an IPO or direct listing.
If a private company completes an IPO or direct listing prior to the specified date, this market will resolve according to the company’s public market capitalization at the market close of the specified date or the most recent trading day.
Public market capitalization will be determined using the final official regular-hour trading price published for the company’s primary listed common equity on its primary exchange for the specified date or the most recent trading day, multiplied by the company’s total outstanding common shares at the relevant time.
If the listed company merges with or acquires another entity and remains the parent company, no change to resolution methodology applies.
If a listed company is acquired, merges into another entity and is no longer the surviving parent company, or otherwise ceases to exist as an independent entity prior to the end of the period, only the last NPM valuation and applicable public market capitalization achieved prior to completion of the transaction will be considered for resolution. No transaction, acquisition, or merger consideration will be considered for resolution.
The resolution source for this market is NPM data published here (https://fe.secondmarket.com/companies/company-30839e0b-2730-4495-839f-1bf638fa9cca/data?return_url=https://poly.havingsomuch.fun/finance/privates) and here (https://fe.secondmarket.com/companies/company-3e197763-4ff8-4d8c-bd1f-cc2792937757/data?return_url=https://poly.havingsomuch.fun/finance/privates). The resolution source for any period following an IPO, direct listing, or relevant corporate action, will be official exchange trading data and publicly reported share counts.
If Anthropic and OpenAI’s combined valuation is equal to Google’s public market capitalization at resolution, this market will resolve to 50-50.
Revisions to previously published NPM data made after their initial release will not be considered, unless made to correct clearly erroneous data.
Marché ouvert : May 19, 2026, 4:27 PM ET
Volume
$2,080Date de fin
1 janv. 2027Marché ouvert
May 19, 2026, 4:27 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "OpenAI + Anthropic" if the combined private market valuation of Anthropic and OpenAI is larger than Google's market capitalization on December 31, 2026, or to "Google" if Google's market capitalization exceeds that combined valuation.
NPM Prices are published for trading days only and are updated once daily at 1:00 PM ET on the following calendar day.
If NPM has not published relevant data for the specified date by 1:00 PM ET on January 1, 2027, this market may remain open until 11:59 PM ET on January 4, 2027. If no further data is released by that time, the market will resolve according to the data available.
If NPM ceases publishing relevant data prior to the specified date, this market will resolve based on the NPM data published prior to the cessation of coverage, as well as applicable public market capitalization data following an IPO or direct listing.
If a private company completes an IPO or direct listing prior to the specified date, this market will resolve according to the company’s public market capitalization at the market close of the specified date or the most recent trading day.
Public market capitalization will be determined using the final official regular-hour trading price published for the company’s primary listed common equity on its primary exchange for the specified date or the most recent trading day, multiplied by the company’s total outstanding common shares at the relevant time.
If the listed company merges with or acquires another entity and remains the parent company, no change to resolution methodology applies.
If a listed company is acquired, merges into another entity and is no longer the surviving parent company, or otherwise ceases to exist as an independent entity prior to the end of the period, only the last NPM valuation and applicable public market capitalization achieved prior to completion of the transaction will be considered for resolution. No transaction, acquisition, or merger consideration will be considered for resolution.
The resolution source for this market is NPM data published here (https://fe.secondmarket.com/companies/company-30839e0b-2730-4495-839f-1bf638fa9cca/data?return_url=https://poly.havingsomuch.fun/finance/privates) and here (https://fe.secondmarket.com/companies/company-3e197763-4ff8-4d8c-bd1f-cc2792937757/data?return_url=https://poly.havingsomuch.fun/finance/privates). The resolution source for any period following an IPO, direct listing, or relevant corporate action, will be official exchange trading data and publicly reported share counts.
If Anthropic and OpenAI’s combined valuation is equal to Google’s public market capitalization at resolution, this market will resolve to 50-50.
Revisions to previously published NPM data made after their initial release will not be considered, unless made to correct clearly erroneous data.Alphabet's roughly $4.2 trillion market capitalization as of mid-August 2026 substantially exceeds the combined private valuations of OpenAI ($852 billion post-March funding) and Anthropic (approximately $965 billion post-May Series H), creating a wide gap that underpins the 92% market-implied odds for Google. Traders price in Alphabet's diversified revenue streams from search, cloud, and advertising alongside its established public-market liquidity, while viewing the AI startups' rapid revenue growth—Anthropic pacing toward $100 billion annualized run rate—as insufficient to close the valuation differential by year-end. Potential IPOs for both OpenAI and Anthropic in the second half of 2026 introduce upside scenarios, yet even aggressive targets near $1–2 trillion each would likely leave the pair below Alphabet's capitalization given typical post-IPO trading dynamics and the remaining months until December 31. Market-implied odds reflect this structural lead, tempered by the possibility of outsized IPO multiples or accelerated growth that narrows the spread.
This market will resolve to "OpenAI + Anthropic" if the combined private market valuation of Anthropic and OpenAI is larger than Google's market capitalization on December 31, 2026, or to "Google" if Google's market capitalization exceeds that combined valuation.
NPM Prices are published for trading days only and are updated once daily at 1:00 PM ET on the following calendar day.
If NPM has not published relevant data for the specified date by 1:00 PM ET on January 1, 2027, this market may remain open until 11:59 PM ET on January 4, 2027. If no further data is released by that time, the market will resolve according to the data available.
If NPM ceases publishing relevant data prior to the specified date, this market will resolve based on the NPM data published prior to the cessation of coverage, as well as applicable public market capitalization data following an IPO or direct listing.
If a private company completes an IPO or direct listing prior to the specified date, this market will resolve according to the company’s public market capitalization at the market close of the specified date or the most recent trading day.
Public market capitalization will be determined using the final official regular-hour trading price published for the company’s primary listed common equity on its primary exchange for the specified date or the most recent trading day, multiplied by the company’s total outstanding common shares at the relevant time.
If the listed company merges with or acquires another entity and remains the parent company, no change to resolution methodology applies.
If a listed company is acquired, merges into another entity and is no longer the surviving parent company, or otherwise ceases to exist as an independent entity prior to the end of the period, only the last NPM valuation and applicable public market capitalization achieved prior to completion of the transaction will be considered for resolution. No transaction, acquisition, or merger consideration will be considered for resolution.
The resolution source for this market is NPM data published here (https://fe.secondmarket.com/companies/company-30839e0b-2730-4495-839f-1bf638fa9cca/data?return_url=https://poly.havingsomuch.fun/finance/privates) and here (https://fe.secondmarket.com/companies/company-3e197763-4ff8-4d8c-bd1f-cc2792937757/data?return_url=https://poly.havingsomuch.fun/finance/privates). The resolution source for any period following an IPO, direct listing, or relevant corporate action, will be official exchange trading data and publicly reported share counts.
If Anthropic and OpenAI’s combined valuation is equal to Google’s public market capitalization at resolution, this market will resolve to 50-50.
Revisions to previously published NPM data made after their initial release will not be considered, unless made to correct clearly erroneous data.
NPM Prices are published for trading days only and are updated once daily at 1:00 PM ET on the following calendar day.
If NPM has not published relevant data for the specified date by 1:00 PM ET on January 1, 2027, this market may remain open until 11:59 PM ET on January 4, 2027. If no further data is released by that time, the market will resolve according to the data available.
If NPM ceases publishing relevant data prior to the specified date, this market will resolve based on the NPM data published prior to the cessation of coverage, as well as applicable public market capitalization data following an IPO or direct listing.
If a private company completes an IPO or direct listing prior to the specified date, this market will resolve according to the company’s public market capitalization at the market close of the specified date or the most recent trading day.
Public market capitalization will be determined using the final official regular-hour trading price published for the company’s primary listed common equity on its primary exchange for the specified date or the most recent trading day, multiplied by the company’s total outstanding common shares at the relevant time.
If the listed company merges with or acquires another entity and remains the parent company, no change to resolution methodology applies.
If a listed company is acquired, merges into another entity and is no longer the surviving parent company, or otherwise ceases to exist as an independent entity prior to the end of the period, only the last NPM valuation and applicable public market capitalization achieved prior to completion of the transaction will be considered for resolution. No transaction, acquisition, or merger consideration will be considered for resolution.
The resolution source for this market is NPM data published here (https://fe.secondmarket.com/companies/company-30839e0b-2730-4495-839f-1bf638fa9cca/data?return_url=https://poly.havingsomuch.fun/finance/privates) and here (https://fe.secondmarket.com/companies/company-3e197763-4ff8-4d8c-bd1f-cc2792937757/data?return_url=https://poly.havingsomuch.fun/finance/privates). The resolution source for any period following an IPO, direct listing, or relevant corporate action, will be official exchange trading data and publicly reported share counts.
If Anthropic and OpenAI’s combined valuation is equal to Google’s public market capitalization at resolution, this market will resolve to 50-50.
Revisions to previously published NPM data made after their initial release will not be considered, unless made to correct clearly erroneous data.
Volume
$2,080Date de fin
1 janv. 2027Marché ouvert
May 19, 2026, 4:27 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Alphabet's roughly $4.2 trillion market capitalization as of mid-August 2026 substantially exceeds the combined private valuations of OpenAI ($852 billion post-March funding) and Anthropic (approximately $965 billion post-May Series H), creating a wide gap that underpins the 92% market-implied odds for Google. Traders price in Alphabet's diversified revenue streams from search, cloud, and advertising alongside its established public-market liquidity, while viewing the AI startups' rapid revenue growth—Anthropic pacing toward $100 billion annualized run rate—as insufficient to close the valuation differential by year-end. Potential IPOs for both OpenAI and Anthropic in the second half of 2026 introduce upside scenarios, yet even aggressive targets near $1–2 trillion each would likely leave the pair below Alphabet's capitalization given typical post-IPO trading dynamics and the remaining months until December 31. Market-implied odds reflect this structural lead, tempered by the possibility of outsized IPO multiples or accelerated growth that narrows the spread.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
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