Recent polls indicate incumbent Ed Markey has widened his lead to double digits over Seth Moulton among likely Democratic primary voters ahead of the September 1 contest, reflecting stronger backing from progressives, liberals, and women on issues like healthcare and climate policy. Earlier surveys showed a tighter contest, but Moulton's focus on generational change and Markey's age has not shifted enough support among moderates or younger voters to close the gap. The final debate, early voting, and primary turnout dynamics remain key variables that could influence the ultimate margin, as low-information voters and base mobilization often determine outcomes in such races. Trader pricing reflects uncertainty around whether Markey consolidates further or Moulton narrows the deficit in the closing days.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourMassachusetts Démocratique Sénat Primaire Marge de Victoire
Massachusetts Démocratique Sénat Primaire Marge de Victoire
Markey 40 %+ 41%
Moulton <5 % 39%
Markey 15–20 % 36%
Markey 20–25 % 35%
NOUVEAU
NOUVEAU
1 sept. 2026
Markey 40 %+
41%
Markey 35–40 %
19%
Markey 30–35 %
26%
Markey 25–30 %
34%
Markey 20–25 %
35%
Markey 15–20 %
36%
Markey 10–15 %
26%
Markey 5–10 %
24%
Markey <5%
22%
Moulton <5 %
39%
Moulton 5 %+
5%
Markey 40 %+ 41%
Moulton <5 % 39%
Markey 15–20 % 36%
Markey 20–25 % 35%
NOUVEAU
NOUVEAU
1 sept. 2026
Markey 40 %+
$16 Vol.
41%
Markey 35–40 %
$16 Vol.
19%
Markey 30–35 %
$16 Vol.
26%
Markey 25–30 %
$23 Vol.
34%
Markey 20–25 %
$16 Vol.
35%
Markey 15–20 %
$16 Vol.
36%
Markey 10–15 %
$16 Vol.
26%
Markey 5–10 %
$16 Vol.
24%
Markey <5%
$16 Vol.
22%
Moulton <5 %
$16 Vol.
39%
Moulton 5 %+
$101 Vol.
5%
The Massachusetts state primary is scheduled to be held on September 1, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the Massachusetts Democratic Primary for U.S. Senator.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two candidates receive the exact same highest number of valid votes and both are listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for the tied candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically. If only one of the tied candidates is listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for that listed candidate. If neither tied candidate is listed, this market will resolve to “Other.”
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the Commonwealth of Massachusetts, such as official statewide results published by the Massachusetts Secretary of the Commonwealth (https://www.sec.state.ma.us/); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.Recent polls indicate incumbent Ed Markey has widened his lead to double digits over Seth Moulton among likely Democratic primary voters ahead of the September 1 contest, reflecting stronger backing from progressives, liberals, and women on issues like healthcare and climate policy. Earlier surveys showed a tighter contest, but Moulton's focus on generational change and Markey's age has not shifted enough support among moderates or younger voters to close the gap. The final debate, early voting, and primary turnout dynamics remain key variables that could influence the ultimate margin, as low-information voters and base mobilization often determine outcomes in such races. Trader pricing reflects uncertainty around whether Markey consolidates further or Moulton narrows the deficit in the closing days.
The Massachusetts state primary is scheduled to be held on September 1, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the Massachusetts Democratic Primary for U.S. Senator.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two candidates receive the exact same highest number of valid votes and both are listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for the tied candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically. If only one of the tied candidates is listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for that listed candidate. If neither tied candidate is listed, this market will resolve to “Other.”
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the Commonwealth of Massachusetts, such as official statewide results published by the Massachusetts Secretary of the Commonwealth (https://www.sec.state.ma.us/); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the Massachusetts Democratic Primary for U.S. Senator.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two candidates receive the exact same highest number of valid votes and both are listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for the tied candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically. If only one of the tied candidates is listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for that listed candidate. If neither tied candidate is listed, this market will resolve to “Other.”
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the Commonwealth of Massachusetts, such as official statewide results published by the Massachusetts Secretary of the Commonwealth (https://www.sec.state.ma.us/); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
Marché ouvert : Aug 20, 2026, 5:36 PM ET
Volume
$268Date de fin
1 sept. 2026Marché ouvert
Aug 20, 2026, 5:36 PM ETSource de résolution
https://www.sec.state.ma.us/Resolver
0x69c47De9D...The Massachusetts state primary is scheduled to be held on September 1, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the Massachusetts Democratic Primary for U.S. Senator.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two candidates receive the exact same highest number of valid votes and both are listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for the tied candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically. If only one of the tied candidates is listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for that listed candidate. If neither tied candidate is listed, this market will resolve to “Other.”
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the Commonwealth of Massachusetts, such as official statewide results published by the Massachusetts Secretary of the Commonwealth (https://www.sec.state.ma.us/); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.Recent polls indicate incumbent Ed Markey has widened his lead to double digits over Seth Moulton among likely Democratic primary voters ahead of the September 1 contest, reflecting stronger backing from progressives, liberals, and women on issues like healthcare and climate policy. Earlier surveys showed a tighter contest, but Moulton's focus on generational change and Markey's age has not shifted enough support among moderates or younger voters to close the gap. The final debate, early voting, and primary turnout dynamics remain key variables that could influence the ultimate margin, as low-information voters and base mobilization often determine outcomes in such races. Trader pricing reflects uncertainty around whether Markey consolidates further or Moulton narrows the deficit in the closing days.
The Massachusetts state primary is scheduled to be held on September 1, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the Massachusetts Democratic Primary for U.S. Senator.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two candidates receive the exact same highest number of valid votes and both are listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for the tied candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically. If only one of the tied candidates is listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for that listed candidate. If neither tied candidate is listed, this market will resolve to “Other.”
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the Commonwealth of Massachusetts, such as official statewide results published by the Massachusetts Secretary of the Commonwealth (https://www.sec.state.ma.us/); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the Massachusetts Democratic Primary for U.S. Senator.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two candidates receive the exact same highest number of valid votes and both are listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for the tied candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically. If only one of the tied candidates is listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for that listed candidate. If neither tied candidate is listed, this market will resolve to “Other.”
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the Commonwealth of Massachusetts, such as official statewide results published by the Massachusetts Secretary of the Commonwealth (https://www.sec.state.ma.us/); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
Volume
$268Date de fin
1 sept. 2026Marché ouvert
Aug 20, 2026, 5:36 PM ETSource de résolution
https://www.sec.state.ma.us/Resolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent polls indicate incumbent Ed Markey has widened his lead to double digits over Seth Moulton among likely Democratic primary voters ahead of the September 1 contest, reflecting stronger backing from progressives, liberals, and women on issues like healthcare and climate policy. Earlier surveys showed a tighter contest, but Moulton's focus on generational change and Markey's age has not shifted enough support among moderates or younger voters to close the gap. The final debate, early voting, and primary turnout dynamics remain key variables that could influence the ultimate margin, as low-information voters and base mobilization often determine outcomes in such races. Trader pricing reflects uncertainty around whether Markey consolidates further or Moulton narrows the deficit in the closing days.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourConnexes
Le candidat du Parti démocrate remportera-t-il l'élection sénatoriale du Massachusetts de 2026 avec une avance de 35 à 40 % ?
20%
Oui
Est-ce qu'Abdul El-Sayed gagnera la primaire démocrate au Sénat du Michigan avec moins de 5 % d'avance ?
100%
Oui
Le candidat du Parti démocrate remportera-t-il l’élection du gouverneur du Massachusetts en 2026 avec 25 à 30 % d’avance ?
21%
Oui
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