Trump's public threats to invoke the Insurrection Act have centered on immigration enforcement operations and resulting protests, notably after an ICE shooting sparked unrest in Minnesota in January 2026. Internal administration debates, including advocacy by senior aides for deployment against demonstrators and a staff memo highlighting litigation risks, have shaped expectations. Court rulings restricting federalization of National Guard units under other statutes have narrowed alternatives, yet no invocation has occurred despite prior flashpoints in cities such as Los Angeles and Chicago. Midterm elections in November 2026 and ongoing deportation surges remain potential catalysts, while congressional reform efforts and institutional caution continue to weigh against action. These factors underpin the market's modest implied probability for invocation by December 31.