Latest ensemble forecasts from European and global models indicate peak temperatures in Milan on August 12 likely reaching 34–35°C under persistent high pressure and warm southerly flow, driving the near-even market-implied odds of 39.5% for 34°C and 42.5% for 35°C. Subtle differences in model timing of maximum heating, boundary-layer mixing, and localized urban effects create the tight spread, with lower-probability outcomes reflecting ensemble members that incorporate modest cloud cover or earlier sea-breeze influences. Official short-range guidance from agencies such as ECMWF continues to evolve with each cycle, and traders weigh these incremental updates against Milan’s historical August maxima near 30°C. Resolution hinges on the verified daily high from local meteorological stations.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourLa température la plus élevée à Milan le 12 août ?
La température la plus élevée à Milan le 12 août ?
35°C 44%
34°C 39%
36°C 10%
33°C 8%
NOUVEAU
NOUVEAU
12 août 2026
29°C or below
<1%
30°C
<1%
31°C
1%
32°C
2%
33°C
8%
34°C
39%
35°C
44%
36°C
10%
37°C
2%
38°C
1%
39°C or higher
<1%
35°C 44%
34°C 39%
36°C 10%
33°C 8%
NOUVEAU
NOUVEAU
12 août 2026
29°C or below
$258 Vol.
<1%
30°C
$204 Vol.
<1%
31°C
$163 Vol.
1%
32°C
$203 Vol.
2%
33°C
$1,495 Vol.
8%
34°C
$845 Vol.
39%
35°C
$1,610 Vol.
44%
36°C
$591 Vol.
10%
37°C
$185 Vol.
2%
38°C
$154 Vol.
1%
39°C or higher
$399 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Malpensa Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 12 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Malpensa Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/it/milan/LIMC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Latest ensemble forecasts from European and global models indicate peak temperatures in Milan on August 12 likely reaching 34–35°C under persistent high pressure and warm southerly flow, driving the near-even market-implied odds of 39.5% for 34°C and 42.5% for 35°C. Subtle differences in model timing of maximum heating, boundary-layer mixing, and localized urban effects create the tight spread, with lower-probability outcomes reflecting ensemble members that incorporate modest cloud cover or earlier sea-breeze influences. Official short-range guidance from agencies such as ECMWF continues to evolve with each cycle, and traders weigh these incremental updates against Milan’s historical August maxima near 30°C. Resolution hinges on the verified daily high from local meteorological stations.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Malpensa Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 12 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Malpensa Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/it/milan/LIMC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Malpensa Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 12 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Malpensa Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/it/milan/LIMC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Marché ouvert : Aug 10, 2026, 12:04 AM ET
Volume
$6,105Date de fin
12 août 2026Marché ouvert
Aug 10, 2026, 12:04 AM ETSource de résolution
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/it/milan/LIMCResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Malpensa Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 12 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Malpensa Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/it/milan/LIMC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Latest ensemble forecasts from European and global models indicate peak temperatures in Milan on August 12 likely reaching 34–35°C under persistent high pressure and warm southerly flow, driving the near-even market-implied odds of 39.5% for 34°C and 42.5% for 35°C. Subtle differences in model timing of maximum heating, boundary-layer mixing, and localized urban effects create the tight spread, with lower-probability outcomes reflecting ensemble members that incorporate modest cloud cover or earlier sea-breeze influences. Official short-range guidance from agencies such as ECMWF continues to evolve with each cycle, and traders weigh these incremental updates against Milan’s historical August maxima near 30°C. Resolution hinges on the verified daily high from local meteorological stations.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Malpensa Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 12 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Malpensa Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/it/milan/LIMC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Malpensa Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 12 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Malpensa Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/it/milan/LIMC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$6,105Date de fin
12 août 2026Marché ouvert
Aug 10, 2026, 12:04 AM ETSource de résolution
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/it/milan/LIMCResolver
0x69c47De9D...Latest ensemble forecasts from European and global models indicate peak temperatures in Milan on August 12 likely reaching 34–35°C under persistent high pressure and warm southerly flow, driving the near-even market-implied odds of 39.5% for 34°C and 42.5% for 35°C. Subtle differences in model timing of maximum heating, boundary-layer mixing, and localized urban effects create the tight spread, with lower-probability outcomes reflecting ensemble members that incorporate modest cloud cover or earlier sea-breeze influences. Official short-range guidance from agencies such as ECMWF continues to evolve with each cycle, and traders weigh these incremental updates against Milan’s historical August maxima near 30°C. Resolution hinges on the verified daily high from local meteorological stations.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
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