Florida's 2026 special Senate election features Republican incumbent Ashley Moody, appointed to complete Marco Rubio’s term after his 2025 confirmation as Secretary of State. Moody holds a consistent polling edge of 7–10 points against either Democratic primary contender—Alex Vindman or Angie Nixon—heading into the August 18 primary and November general. Florida’s recent federal election results, including strong Republican performance in statewide contests, underpin trader pricing. Moody benefits from incumbency visibility and fundraising momentum, while Democratic candidates face structural headwinds in a state that has not elected a Democratic senator since 2012. Limited recent movement in surveys or major campaign developments has kept the implied probability for a Republican win near 87 percent.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour$67,151 Vol.
$67,151 Vol.
Républicain
87%
Démocrate
13%
$67,151 Vol.
$67,151 Vol.
Républicain
$37,551 Vol.
87%
Démocrate
$29,600 Vol.
13%
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 Florida U.S. Senate election special election currently scheduled for November 3, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.Florida's 2026 special Senate election features Republican incumbent Ashley Moody, appointed to complete Marco Rubio’s term after his 2025 confirmation as Secretary of State. Moody holds a consistent polling edge of 7–10 points against either Democratic primary contender—Alex Vindman or Angie Nixon—heading into the August 18 primary and November general. Florida’s recent federal election results, including strong Republican performance in statewide contests, underpin trader pricing. Moody benefits from incumbency visibility and fundraising momentum, while Democratic candidates face structural headwinds in a state that has not elected a Democratic senator since 2012. Limited recent movement in surveys or major campaign developments has kept the implied probability for a Republican win near 87 percent.
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 Florida U.S. Senate election special election currently scheduled for November 3, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
Marché ouvert : Oct 13, 2025, 4:41 PM ET
Volume
$67,151Marché ouvert
Oct 13, 2025, 4:41 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 Florida U.S. Senate election special election currently scheduled for November 3, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.Florida's 2026 special Senate election features Republican incumbent Ashley Moody, appointed to complete Marco Rubio’s term after his 2025 confirmation as Secretary of State. Moody holds a consistent polling edge of 7–10 points against either Democratic primary contender—Alex Vindman or Angie Nixon—heading into the August 18 primary and November general. Florida’s recent federal election results, including strong Republican performance in statewide contests, underpin trader pricing. Moody benefits from incumbency visibility and fundraising momentum, while Democratic candidates face structural headwinds in a state that has not elected a Democratic senator since 2012. Limited recent movement in surveys or major campaign developments has kept the implied probability for a Republican win near 87 percent.
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 Florida U.S. Senate election special election currently scheduled for November 3, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
Volume
$67,151Marché ouvert
Oct 13, 2025, 4:41 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Florida's 2026 special Senate election features Republican incumbent Ashley Moody, appointed to complete Marco Rubio’s term after his 2025 confirmation as Secretary of State. Moody holds a consistent polling edge of 7–10 points against either Democratic primary contender—Alex Vindman or Angie Nixon—heading into the August 18 primary and November general. Florida’s recent federal election results, including strong Republican performance in statewide contests, underpin trader pricing. Moody benefits from incumbency visibility and fundraising momentum, while Democratic candidates face structural headwinds in a state that has not elected a Democratic senator since 2012. Limited recent movement in surveys or major campaign developments has kept the implied probability for a Republican win near 87 percent.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
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