Democratic incumbent Jeff Merkley holds a commanding position in the 2026 Oregon U.S. Senate race, reflected in trader consensus favoring the Democratic nominee at 97 percent. Oregon's partisan lean, consistent Democratic performance in statewide contests, and Merkley's established record as a three-term senator contribute to this outlook. The May 2026 primaries reinforced the matchup, with Merkley securing the Democratic nomination by a wide margin and Republican state senator David Brock Smith emerging from a fragmented GOP field. Historical results show Republicans have not won an Oregon Senate seat since 2002. Potential shifts could stem from major unforeseen developments such as candidate health events, scandals, or an unusually strong national Republican surge, though structural factors limit realistic pathways for the Republican nominee.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourNOUVEAU
NOUVEAU
3 nov. 2026
Démocrate
97%
Républicain
3%
NOUVEAU
NOUVEAU
3 nov. 2026
Démocrate
$3,632 Vol.
97%
Républicain
$2,946 Vol.
3%
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Oregon U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.Democratic incumbent Jeff Merkley holds a commanding position in the 2026 Oregon U.S. Senate race, reflected in trader consensus favoring the Democratic nominee at 97 percent. Oregon's partisan lean, consistent Democratic performance in statewide contests, and Merkley's established record as a three-term senator contribute to this outlook. The May 2026 primaries reinforced the matchup, with Merkley securing the Democratic nomination by a wide margin and Republican state senator David Brock Smith emerging from a fragmented GOP field. Historical results show Republicans have not won an Oregon Senate seat since 2002. Potential shifts could stem from major unforeseen developments such as candidate health events, scandals, or an unusually strong national Republican surge, though structural factors limit realistic pathways for the Republican nominee.
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Oregon U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
Marché ouvert : Oct 13, 2025, 5:04 PM ET
Volume
$6,578Date de fin
3 nov. 2026Marché ouvert
Oct 13, 2025, 5:04 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Oregon U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.Democratic incumbent Jeff Merkley holds a commanding position in the 2026 Oregon U.S. Senate race, reflected in trader consensus favoring the Democratic nominee at 97 percent. Oregon's partisan lean, consistent Democratic performance in statewide contests, and Merkley's established record as a three-term senator contribute to this outlook. The May 2026 primaries reinforced the matchup, with Merkley securing the Democratic nomination by a wide margin and Republican state senator David Brock Smith emerging from a fragmented GOP field. Historical results show Republicans have not won an Oregon Senate seat since 2002. Potential shifts could stem from major unforeseen developments such as candidate health events, scandals, or an unusually strong national Republican surge, though structural factors limit realistic pathways for the Republican nominee.
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Oregon U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
Volume
$6,578Date de fin
3 nov. 2026Marché ouvert
Oct 13, 2025, 5:04 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Democratic incumbent Jeff Merkley holds a commanding position in the 2026 Oregon U.S. Senate race, reflected in trader consensus favoring the Democratic nominee at 97 percent. Oregon's partisan lean, consistent Democratic performance in statewide contests, and Merkley's established record as a three-term senator contribute to this outlook. The May 2026 primaries reinforced the matchup, with Merkley securing the Democratic nomination by a wide margin and Republican state senator David Brock Smith emerging from a fragmented GOP field. Historical results show Republicans have not won an Oregon Senate seat since 2002. Potential shifts could stem from major unforeseen developments such as candidate health events, scandals, or an unusually strong national Republican surge, though structural factors limit realistic pathways for the Republican nominee.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
Méfiez-vous des liens externes.
Méfiez-vous des liens externes.
Questions fréquentes