This market will resolve to "Yes" if Anthropic's Claude 5 model is made available to the general public by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
For this market to resolve to "Yes," Claude 5 must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be clearly defined and publicly announced by Anthropic as being accessible to the general public.
Claude 5 refers to a product explicitly named Claude 5 (e.g. Claude 5.0 would count), or one that is recognized as a successor to Claude 4, similar to the progression from Claude 2 to Claude 3. Products labeled as Claude 4.5 or similar will not count for this market's resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Anthropic, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.This market will resolve to "Yes" if Anthropic's Claude 5 model is made available to the general public by September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
For this market to resolve to "Yes," Claude 5 must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be clearly defined and publicly announced by Anthropic as being accessible to the general public.
Claude 5 refers to a product explicitly named Claude 5 (e.g. Claude 5.0 would count), or one that is recognized as a successor to Claude 4, similar to the progression from Claude 2 to Claude 3. Products labeled as Claude 4.5 or similar will not count for this market's resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Anthropic, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.This market will resolve to "Yes" if Anthropic's Claude 5 model is made available to the general public by February 6, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
For this market to resolve to "Yes," Claude 5 must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be clearly defined and publicly announced by Anthropic as being accessible to the general public.
Claude 5 refers to a product explicitly named Claude 5 (e.g. Claude 5.0 would count), or one that is recognized as a successor to Claude 4, similar to the progression from Claude 2 to Claude 3. Products labeled as Claude 4.5 or similar will not count for this market's resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Anthropic, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.This market will resolve to "Yes" if Anthropic's Claude 5 model is made available to the general public by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
For this market to resolve to "Yes," Claude 5 must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be clearly defined and publicly announced by Anthropic as being accessible to the general public.
Claude 5 refers to a product explicitly named Claude 5 (e.g. Claude 5.0 would count), or one that is recognized as a successor to Claude 4, similar to the progression from Claude 2 to Claude 3. Products labeled as Claude 4.5 or similar will not count for this market's resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Anthropic, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.This market will resolve to "Yes" if Anthropic's Claude 5 model is made available to the general public by February 14, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
For this market to resolve to "Yes," Claude 5 must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be clearly defined and publicly announced by Anthropic as being accessible to the general public.
Claude 5 refers to a product explicitly named Claude 5 (e.g. Claude 5.0 would count), or one that is recognized as a successor to Claude 4, similar to the progression from Claude 2 to Claude 3. Products labeled as Claude 4.5 or similar will not count for this market's resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Anthropic, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.This market will resolve to "Yes" if Anthropic's Claude 5 model is made available to the general public by February 28, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
For this market to resolve to "Yes," Claude 5 must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be clearly defined and publicly announced by Anthropic as being accessible to the general public.
Claude 5 refers to a product explicitly named Claude 5 (e.g. Claude 5.0 would count), or one that is recognized as a successor to Claude 4, similar to the progression from Claude 2 to Claude 3. Products labeled as Claude 4.5 or similar will not count for this market's resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Anthropic, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.This market will resolve to "Yes" if Anthropic's Claude 5 model is made available to the general public by March 15, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
For this market to resolve to "Yes," Claude 5 must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be clearly defined and publicly announced by Anthropic as being accessible to the general public.
Claude 5 refers to a product explicitly named Claude 5 (e.g. Claude 5.0 would count), or one that is recognized as a successor to Claude 4, similar to the progression from Claude 2 to Claude 3. Products labeled as Claude 4.5 or similar will not count for this market's resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Anthropic, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.This market will resolve to "Yes" if Anthropic's Claude 5 model is made available to the general public by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
For this market to resolve to "Yes," Claude 5 must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be clearly defined and publicly announced by Anthropic as being accessible to the general public.
Claude 5 refers to a product explicitly named Claude 5 (e.g. Claude 5.0 would count), or one that is recognized as a successor to Claude 4, similar to the progression from Claude 2 to Claude 3. Products labeled as Claude 4.5 or similar will not count for this market's resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Anthropic, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.This market will resolve to "Yes" if Anthropic's Claude 5 model is made available to the general public by April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
For this market to resolve to "Yes," Claude 5 must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be clearly defined and publicly announced by Anthropic as being accessible to the general public.
Claude 5 refers to a product explicitly named Claude 5 (e.g. Claude 5.0 would count), or one that is recognized as a successor to Claude 4, similar to the progression from Claude 2 to Claude 3. Products labeled as Claude 4.5 or similar will not count for this market's resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Anthropic, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.This market will resolve to "Yes" if Anthropic's Claude 5 model is made available to the general public by May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
For this market to resolve to "Yes," Claude 5 must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be clearly defined and publicly announced by Anthropic as being accessible to the general public.
Claude 5 refers to a product explicitly named Claude 5 (e.g. Claude 5.0 would count), or one that is recognized as a successor to Claude 4, similar to the progression from Claude 2 to Claude 3. Products labeled as Claude 4.5 or similar will not count for this market's resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Anthropic, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.Anthropic continues rapid iteration on its Claude family with the May 28, 2026 launch of Opus 4.8, which introduced gains in honesty, tool use, and agentic performance including an 84% score on the Online-Mind2Web benchmark. No official Claude 5 model has shipped as of early June, though leaks reference an internal codename “Fennec” for a potential Sonnet 5 variant and point to a Q2–Q3 2026 window for broader releases. Trader sentiment reflects Anthropic’s pattern of frequent 4.x updates alongside competitive pressure from rival labs, with uncertainty centered on whether the next-generation architecture will meet internal safety thresholds or slip due to extended testing. Key near-term catalysts include any developer conference appearances or partnership announcements that could signal readiness.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Anthropic's Claude 5 model is made available to the general public by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
For this market to resolve to "Yes," Claude 5 must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be clearly defined and publicly announced by Anthropic as being accessible to the general public.
Claude 5 refers to a product explicitly named Claude 5 (e.g. Claude 5.0 would count), or one that is recognized as a successor to Claude 4, similar to the progression from Claude 2 to Claude 3. Products labeled as Claude 4.5 or similar will not count for this market's resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Anthropic, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Anthropic's Claude 5 model is made available to the general public by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
For this market to resolve to "Yes," Claude 5 must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be clearly defined and publicly announced by Anthropic as being accessible to the general public.
Claude 5 refers to a product explicitly named Claude 5 (e.g. Claude 5.0 would count), or one that is recognized as a successor to Claude 4, similar to the progression from Claude 2 to Claude 3. Products labeled as Claude 4.5 or similar will not count for this market's resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Anthropic, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
Anthropic continues rapid iteration on its Claude family with the May 28, 2026 launch of Opus 4.8, which introduced gains in honesty, tool use, and agentic performance including an 84% score on the Online-Mind2Web benchmark. No official Claude 5 model has shipped as of early June, though leaks reference an internal codename “Fennec” for a potential Sonnet 5 variant and point to a Q2–Q3 2026 window for broader releases. Trader sentiment reflects Anthropic’s pattern of frequent 4.x updates alongside competitive pressure from rival labs, with uncertainty centered on whether the next-generation architecture will meet internal safety thresholds or slip due to extended testing. Key near-term catalysts include any developer conference appearances or partnership announcements that could signal readiness.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
Jun 5 2026
Anthropic's Claude platform suffers service disruption raising concerns
September 30, 2026 jumps to 69%7%
A significant service disruption affected multiple Claude models and services, raising concerns about infrastructure resilience and potential data exposure. This incident did not indicate a Claude 5 public release but may have influenced market sentiment negatively.
Jun 2 2026
Anthropic expands Project Glasswing and confirms Mythos-class models will roll out publicly soon
Anthropic announced expansion of its cybersecurity Project Glasswing and reiterated that Mythos-class models, which are more powerful than current public models, will be made available to all customers in a matter of weeks. This indicates imminent public access to advanced models but no explicit Claude 5 branding yet.
Jun 1 2026
Anthropic confidentially files for IPO, signaling growth and future plans
Anthropic filed paperwork for an IPO, highlighting company growth and investor confidence but did not announce Claude 5 release, maintaining market uncertainty about the model's public availability.
Jun 1 2026
Anthropic files confidential IPO paperwork with SEC
September 30, 2026 drops to 62%6%
Anthropic filed confidential paperwork for an IPO, signaling corporate growth and funding but unrelated directly to Claude 5 public release timing.
Jun 1 2026
Anthropic files confidential IPO paperwork with US regulators
Anthropic filed confidential paperwork for an IPO, indicating strong business growth and market confidence in the company, but this event does not directly confirm Claude 5 public release.
Jun 1 2026
Anthropic confidentially files for IPO, signaling corporate growth
Anthropic filed confidential paperwork with the SEC for an initial public offering, indicating growth and increased funding. While significant for the company, this event did not directly affect the Claude 5 public release timeline or market resolution.
May 28 2026
Anthropic confirms plans to release Mythos-class models to the public soon
September 30, 2026 surges to 94%43%
Anthropic confirmed in late May 2026 that it plans to bring Mythos-class models to the general public after delaying rollout due to security concerns. The company expects to make these models available in the coming weeks, but no public release had occurred by June 7, 2026, so the market remained uncertain about a Claude 5 public launch by end of 2025.
May 28 2026
Anthropic announces plans to release Mythos-class models to all customers in coming weeks
September 30, 2026 jumps to 70%5%
Anthropic confirmed that Mythos-class models, including the advanced capabilities previewed in Claude Mythos, will be made available to all customers soon, though no exact date was given. This announcement increased market optimism about a near-term public release.
May 28 2026
Anthropic releases Claude Opus 4.8 with improved capabilities
Anthropic launched Claude Opus 4.8, an upgrade over Opus 4.7 with better reasoning, coding, and agentic workflows. The release included a commitment to roll out Mythos-class models to all customers in the coming weeks, but no explicit Claude 5 branding or public release occurred yet.
May 28 2026
Anthropic Releases Claude Opus 4.8 with Dynamic Workflows
June 30, 2026 dips to 16%2%
Anthropic released Claude Opus 4.8, improving speed and capability over Opus 4.7 but still without a public Claude 5 release. This led to a market reassessment and price declines for the June 30, 2026 outcome as the deadline neared.
May 24 2026
Anthropic reports over 10,000 critical vulnerabilities found using Mythos Preview
September 30, 2026 dips to 64%4%
Anthropic's Project Glasswing revealed over 10,000 critical vulnerabilities found with Mythos Preview, highlighting the model's power but also the security risks delaying its public release.
May 22 2026
Anthropic reports over 10,000 critical vulnerabilities found using Claude Mythos Preview
September 30, 2026 jumps to 72%13%
Anthropic's Project Glasswing published results showing extensive vulnerability detection using Claude Mythos Preview, reinforcing the model's advanced capabilities but also highlighting the need for further safeguards before public release. Market reacted with cautious optimism.
May 22 2026
Anthropic expands Project Glasswing and Claude Mythos Preview access
September 30, 2026 jumps to 69%10%
Anthropic extended access to Claude Mythos Preview to about 150 organizations and launched Claude Security in public beta for enterprise customers. The company reiterated that Mythos-class models would be made publicly available only after further safety work, delaying any Claude 5 public release.
May 22 2026
Anthropic launches Claude Security public beta for Enterprise customers
September 30, 2026 jumps to 68%11%
Anthropic launched Claude Security in public beta for Enterprise customers, powered by Claude Opus 4.7, while Mythos Preview remains restricted. This shows progress in advanced model deployment but no public Claude 5 release yet.
May 6 2026
Claude Opus 4.8 released with Mythos-level alignment and speed improvements
September 30, 2026 surges to 94%43%
Anthropic released Claude Opus 4.8, a faster and more aligned model with performance comparable to the restricted Claude Mythos Preview, signaling readiness for broader rollout of advanced AI capabilities. This boosted market confidence significantly.
May 6 2026
Anthropic releases Claude Opus 4.7 and launches Claude Design product
September 30, 2026 surges to 94%43%
Anthropic released Claude Opus 4.7 and introduced Claude Design, enhancing collaboration features but did not announce Claude 5. This release caused a spike in market confidence about imminent new models but no confirmation of Claude 5 availability.
May 4 2026
Anthropic launches Claude Security public beta for Enterprise customers
September 30, 2026 jumps to 70%7%
Anthropic launched Claude Security, a public beta product using Opus 4.7 for code vulnerability scanning, signaling focus on specialized models rather than a public Claude 5 release.
Apr 30 2026
Anthropic launches Claude Security public beta for Enterprise customers
June 30, 2026 jumps to 28%9%
Anthropic moved Claude Security, powered by Claude Opus 4.7, into public beta for Enterprise customers, demonstrating progress in deploying advanced AI capabilities but not a full public release of Claude 5. This event helped stabilize market expectations.
Apr 17 2026
Anthropic launches Claude Opus 4.7 and Claude Design product
September 30, 2026 surges to 94%43%
Anthropic released Claude Opus 4.7 and a new product, Claude Design, enhancing capabilities but not announcing Claude 5. This reinforced the view that Claude 5 was not imminent.
Apr 16 2026
Anthropic releases Claude Opus 4.7, the most capable public model to date
September 30, 2026 surges to 94%43%
Anthropic launched Claude Opus 4.7 with improvements in software engineering, vision, and long-running agentic tasks. It is less capable than Claude Mythos Preview but publicly available, reinforcing the pattern of iterative Claude 4 updates rather than a new Claude 5 release.
Apr 16 2026
Anthropic launches Claude Opus 4.7, latest model in Claude 4 family
September 30, 2026 surges to 94%43%
Anthropic released Claude Opus 4.7, an improved model within the Claude 4 generation, available across all Claude products and major cloud platforms. This update indicated continued development within the Claude 4 line rather than a new Claude 5 release, influencing market sentiment towards a delayed Claude 5 launch.
Apr 7 2026
Anthropic announces Claude Mythos Preview with restricted access
June 30, 2026 plunges to 34%36%
Anthropic announced the Claude Mythos Preview model, a more powerful successor to Opus 4.7, but access is limited to select partners due to cybersecurity risks, indicating no broad public release yet.
Apr 7 2026
Anthropic announces Project Glasswing and Claude Mythos Preview
September 30, 2026 surges to 72%22%
Anthropic revealed Project Glasswing and a powerful internal model called Claude Mythos Preview, limited to select partners for cybersecurity applications. The announcement confirmed the existence of a more advanced model beyond Opus 4.7 but clarified it was not yet publicly released, impacting market expectations for Claude 5.
Apr 7 2026
Anthropic announces Project Glasswing and Claude Mythos Preview
June 30, 2026 dips to 19%1%
Anthropic announced Project Glasswing and the restricted Claude Mythos Preview model, which is more capable than Opus 4.7 but only available to select partners for cybersecurity tasks. This model is not publicly accessible, thus not fulfilling the criteria for a public Claude 5 release by end of 2025.
Mar 31 2026
Anthropic ships Claude Opus 4.6 and Sonnet 4.6 but no official Claude 5 release
June 30, 2026 jumps to 56%6%
Anthropic publicly released Claude Opus 4.6 and Sonnet 4.6 models but has not announced any model officially named Claude 5, maintaining uncertainty about the next major release. This contributed to initial market price fluctuations as anticipation for Claude 5 remained speculative.
Mar 27 2026
No public Claude 5 release announced; Anthropic shipping Claude 4.6 models
As of late March 2026, Anthropic had publicly released Claude Opus 4.6 and Sonnet 4.6 but had not announced any model named Claude 5. This absence of a public release contributed to market uncertainty about Claude 5 availability by the end of 2025.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Anthropic's Claude 5 model is made available to the general public by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
For this market to resolve to "Yes," Claude 5 must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be clearly defined and publicly announced by Anthropic as being accessible to the general public.
Claude 5 refers to a product explicitly named Claude 5 (e.g. Claude 5.0 would count), or one that is recognized as a successor to Claude 4, similar to the progression from Claude 2 to Claude 3. Products labeled as Claude 4.5 or similar will not count for this market's resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Anthropic, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.This market will resolve to "Yes" if Anthropic's Claude 5 model is made available to the general public by September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
For this market to resolve to "Yes," Claude 5 must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be clearly defined and publicly announced by Anthropic as being accessible to the general public.
Claude 5 refers to a product explicitly named Claude 5 (e.g. Claude 5.0 would count), or one that is recognized as a successor to Claude 4, similar to the progression from Claude 2 to Claude 3. Products labeled as Claude 4.5 or similar will not count for this market's resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Anthropic, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.This market will resolve to "Yes" if Anthropic's Claude 5 model is made available to the general public by February 6, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
For this market to resolve to "Yes," Claude 5 must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be clearly defined and publicly announced by Anthropic as being accessible to the general public.
Claude 5 refers to a product explicitly named Claude 5 (e.g. Claude 5.0 would count), or one that is recognized as a successor to Claude 4, similar to the progression from Claude 2 to Claude 3. Products labeled as Claude 4.5 or similar will not count for this market's resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Anthropic, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.This market will resolve to "Yes" if Anthropic's Claude 5 model is made available to the general public by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
For this market to resolve to "Yes," Claude 5 must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be clearly defined and publicly announced by Anthropic as being accessible to the general public.
Claude 5 refers to a product explicitly named Claude 5 (e.g. Claude 5.0 would count), or one that is recognized as a successor to Claude 4, similar to the progression from Claude 2 to Claude 3. Products labeled as Claude 4.5 or similar will not count for this market's resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Anthropic, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.This market will resolve to "Yes" if Anthropic's Claude 5 model is made available to the general public by February 14, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
For this market to resolve to "Yes," Claude 5 must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be clearly defined and publicly announced by Anthropic as being accessible to the general public.
Claude 5 refers to a product explicitly named Claude 5 (e.g. Claude 5.0 would count), or one that is recognized as a successor to Claude 4, similar to the progression from Claude 2 to Claude 3. Products labeled as Claude 4.5 or similar will not count for this market's resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Anthropic, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.This market will resolve to "Yes" if Anthropic's Claude 5 model is made available to the general public by February 28, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
For this market to resolve to "Yes," Claude 5 must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be clearly defined and publicly announced by Anthropic as being accessible to the general public.
Claude 5 refers to a product explicitly named Claude 5 (e.g. Claude 5.0 would count), or one that is recognized as a successor to Claude 4, similar to the progression from Claude 2 to Claude 3. Products labeled as Claude 4.5 or similar will not count for this market's resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Anthropic, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.This market will resolve to "Yes" if Anthropic's Claude 5 model is made available to the general public by March 15, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
For this market to resolve to "Yes," Claude 5 must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be clearly defined and publicly announced by Anthropic as being accessible to the general public.
Claude 5 refers to a product explicitly named Claude 5 (e.g. Claude 5.0 would count), or one that is recognized as a successor to Claude 4, similar to the progression from Claude 2 to Claude 3. Products labeled as Claude 4.5 or similar will not count for this market's resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Anthropic, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.This market will resolve to "Yes" if Anthropic's Claude 5 model is made available to the general public by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
For this market to resolve to "Yes," Claude 5 must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be clearly defined and publicly announced by Anthropic as being accessible to the general public.
Claude 5 refers to a product explicitly named Claude 5 (e.g. Claude 5.0 would count), or one that is recognized as a successor to Claude 4, similar to the progression from Claude 2 to Claude 3. Products labeled as Claude 4.5 or similar will not count for this market's resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Anthropic, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.This market will resolve to "Yes" if Anthropic's Claude 5 model is made available to the general public by April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
For this market to resolve to "Yes," Claude 5 must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be clearly defined and publicly announced by Anthropic as being accessible to the general public.
Claude 5 refers to a product explicitly named Claude 5 (e.g. Claude 5.0 would count), or one that is recognized as a successor to Claude 4, similar to the progression from Claude 2 to Claude 3. Products labeled as Claude 4.5 or similar will not count for this market's resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Anthropic, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.This market will resolve to "Yes" if Anthropic's Claude 5 model is made available to the general public by May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
For this market to resolve to "Yes," Claude 5 must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be clearly defined and publicly announced by Anthropic as being accessible to the general public.
Claude 5 refers to a product explicitly named Claude 5 (e.g. Claude 5.0 would count), or one that is recognized as a successor to Claude 4, similar to the progression from Claude 2 to Claude 3. Products labeled as Claude 4.5 or similar will not count for this market's resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Anthropic, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.Anthropic continues rapid iteration on its Claude family with the May 28, 2026 launch of Opus 4.8, which introduced gains in honesty, tool use, and agentic performance including an 84% score on the Online-Mind2Web benchmark. No official Claude 5 model has shipped as of early June, though leaks reference an internal codename “Fennec” for a potential Sonnet 5 variant and point to a Q2–Q3 2026 window for broader releases. Trader sentiment reflects Anthropic’s pattern of frequent 4.x updates alongside competitive pressure from rival labs, with uncertainty centered on whether the next-generation architecture will meet internal safety thresholds or slip due to extended testing. Key near-term catalysts include any developer conference appearances or partnership announcements that could signal readiness.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Anthropic's Claude 5 model is made available to the general public by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
For this market to resolve to "Yes," Claude 5 must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be clearly defined and publicly announced by Anthropic as being accessible to the general public.
Claude 5 refers to a product explicitly named Claude 5 (e.g. Claude 5.0 would count), or one that is recognized as a successor to Claude 4, similar to the progression from Claude 2 to Claude 3. Products labeled as Claude 4.5 or similar will not count for this market's resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Anthropic, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Anthropic's Claude 5 model is made available to the general public by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
For this market to resolve to "Yes," Claude 5 must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be clearly defined and publicly announced by Anthropic as being accessible to the general public.
Claude 5 refers to a product explicitly named Claude 5 (e.g. Claude 5.0 would count), or one that is recognized as a successor to Claude 4, similar to the progression from Claude 2 to Claude 3. Products labeled as Claude 4.5 or similar will not count for this market's resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Anthropic, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
Anthropic continues rapid iteration on its Claude family with the May 28, 2026 launch of Opus 4.8, which introduced gains in honesty, tool use, and agentic performance including an 84% score on the Online-Mind2Web benchmark. No official Claude 5 model has shipped as of early June, though leaks reference an internal codename “Fennec” for a potential Sonnet 5 variant and point to a Q2–Q3 2026 window for broader releases. Trader sentiment reflects Anthropic’s pattern of frequent 4.x updates alongside competitive pressure from rival labs, with uncertainty centered on whether the next-generation architecture will meet internal safety thresholds or slip due to extended testing. Key near-term catalysts include any developer conference appearances or partnership announcements that could signal readiness.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
Jun 5 2026
Anthropic's Claude platform suffers service disruption raising concerns
September 30, 2026 jumps to 69%7%
A significant service disruption affected multiple Claude models and services, raising concerns about infrastructure resilience and potential data exposure. This incident did not indicate a Claude 5 public release but may have influenced market sentiment negatively.
Jun 2 2026
Anthropic expands Project Glasswing and confirms Mythos-class models will roll out publicly soon
Anthropic announced expansion of its cybersecurity Project Glasswing and reiterated that Mythos-class models, which are more powerful than current public models, will be made available to all customers in a matter of weeks. This indicates imminent public access to advanced models but no explicit Claude 5 branding yet.
Jun 1 2026
Anthropic confidentially files for IPO, signaling growth and future plans
Anthropic filed paperwork for an IPO, highlighting company growth and investor confidence but did not announce Claude 5 release, maintaining market uncertainty about the model's public availability.
Jun 1 2026
Anthropic files confidential IPO paperwork with SEC
September 30, 2026 drops to 62%6%
Anthropic filed confidential paperwork for an IPO, signaling corporate growth and funding but unrelated directly to Claude 5 public release timing.
Jun 1 2026
Anthropic files confidential IPO paperwork with US regulators
Anthropic filed confidential paperwork for an IPO, indicating strong business growth and market confidence in the company, but this event does not directly confirm Claude 5 public release.
Jun 1 2026
Anthropic confidentially files for IPO, signaling corporate growth
Anthropic filed confidential paperwork with the SEC for an initial public offering, indicating growth and increased funding. While significant for the company, this event did not directly affect the Claude 5 public release timeline or market resolution.
May 28 2026
Anthropic confirms plans to release Mythos-class models to the public soon
September 30, 2026 surges to 94%43%
Anthropic confirmed in late May 2026 that it plans to bring Mythos-class models to the general public after delaying rollout due to security concerns. The company expects to make these models available in the coming weeks, but no public release had occurred by June 7, 2026, so the market remained uncertain about a Claude 5 public launch by end of 2025.
May 28 2026
Anthropic announces plans to release Mythos-class models to all customers in coming weeks
September 30, 2026 jumps to 70%5%
Anthropic confirmed that Mythos-class models, including the advanced capabilities previewed in Claude Mythos, will be made available to all customers soon, though no exact date was given. This announcement increased market optimism about a near-term public release.
May 28 2026
Anthropic releases Claude Opus 4.8 with improved capabilities
Anthropic launched Claude Opus 4.8, an upgrade over Opus 4.7 with better reasoning, coding, and agentic workflows. The release included a commitment to roll out Mythos-class models to all customers in the coming weeks, but no explicit Claude 5 branding or public release occurred yet.
May 28 2026
Anthropic Releases Claude Opus 4.8 with Dynamic Workflows
June 30, 2026 dips to 16%2%
Anthropic released Claude Opus 4.8, improving speed and capability over Opus 4.7 but still without a public Claude 5 release. This led to a market reassessment and price declines for the June 30, 2026 outcome as the deadline neared.
May 24 2026
Anthropic reports over 10,000 critical vulnerabilities found using Mythos Preview
September 30, 2026 dips to 64%4%
Anthropic's Project Glasswing revealed over 10,000 critical vulnerabilities found with Mythos Preview, highlighting the model's power but also the security risks delaying its public release.
May 22 2026
Anthropic reports over 10,000 critical vulnerabilities found using Claude Mythos Preview
September 30, 2026 jumps to 72%13%
Anthropic's Project Glasswing published results showing extensive vulnerability detection using Claude Mythos Preview, reinforcing the model's advanced capabilities but also highlighting the need for further safeguards before public release. Market reacted with cautious optimism.
May 22 2026
Anthropic expands Project Glasswing and Claude Mythos Preview access
September 30, 2026 jumps to 69%10%
Anthropic extended access to Claude Mythos Preview to about 150 organizations and launched Claude Security in public beta for enterprise customers. The company reiterated that Mythos-class models would be made publicly available only after further safety work, delaying any Claude 5 public release.
May 22 2026
Anthropic launches Claude Security public beta for Enterprise customers
September 30, 2026 jumps to 68%11%
Anthropic launched Claude Security in public beta for Enterprise customers, powered by Claude Opus 4.7, while Mythos Preview remains restricted. This shows progress in advanced model deployment but no public Claude 5 release yet.
May 6 2026
Claude Opus 4.8 released with Mythos-level alignment and speed improvements
September 30, 2026 surges to 94%43%
Anthropic released Claude Opus 4.8, a faster and more aligned model with performance comparable to the restricted Claude Mythos Preview, signaling readiness for broader rollout of advanced AI capabilities. This boosted market confidence significantly.
May 6 2026
Anthropic releases Claude Opus 4.7 and launches Claude Design product
September 30, 2026 surges to 94%43%
Anthropic released Claude Opus 4.7 and introduced Claude Design, enhancing collaboration features but did not announce Claude 5. This release caused a spike in market confidence about imminent new models but no confirmation of Claude 5 availability.
May 4 2026
Anthropic launches Claude Security public beta for Enterprise customers
September 30, 2026 jumps to 70%7%
Anthropic launched Claude Security, a public beta product using Opus 4.7 for code vulnerability scanning, signaling focus on specialized models rather than a public Claude 5 release.
Apr 30 2026
Anthropic launches Claude Security public beta for Enterprise customers
June 30, 2026 jumps to 28%9%
Anthropic moved Claude Security, powered by Claude Opus 4.7, into public beta for Enterprise customers, demonstrating progress in deploying advanced AI capabilities but not a full public release of Claude 5. This event helped stabilize market expectations.
Apr 17 2026
Anthropic launches Claude Opus 4.7 and Claude Design product
September 30, 2026 surges to 94%43%
Anthropic released Claude Opus 4.7 and a new product, Claude Design, enhancing capabilities but not announcing Claude 5. This reinforced the view that Claude 5 was not imminent.
Apr 16 2026
Anthropic releases Claude Opus 4.7, the most capable public model to date
September 30, 2026 surges to 94%43%
Anthropic launched Claude Opus 4.7 with improvements in software engineering, vision, and long-running agentic tasks. It is less capable than Claude Mythos Preview but publicly available, reinforcing the pattern of iterative Claude 4 updates rather than a new Claude 5 release.
Apr 16 2026
Anthropic launches Claude Opus 4.7, latest model in Claude 4 family
September 30, 2026 surges to 94%43%
Anthropic released Claude Opus 4.7, an improved model within the Claude 4 generation, available across all Claude products and major cloud platforms. This update indicated continued development within the Claude 4 line rather than a new Claude 5 release, influencing market sentiment towards a delayed Claude 5 launch.
Apr 7 2026
Anthropic announces Claude Mythos Preview with restricted access
June 30, 2026 plunges to 34%36%
Anthropic announced the Claude Mythos Preview model, a more powerful successor to Opus 4.7, but access is limited to select partners due to cybersecurity risks, indicating no broad public release yet.
Apr 7 2026
Anthropic announces Project Glasswing and Claude Mythos Preview
September 30, 2026 surges to 72%22%
Anthropic revealed Project Glasswing and a powerful internal model called Claude Mythos Preview, limited to select partners for cybersecurity applications. The announcement confirmed the existence of a more advanced model beyond Opus 4.7 but clarified it was not yet publicly released, impacting market expectations for Claude 5.
Apr 7 2026
Anthropic announces Project Glasswing and Claude Mythos Preview
June 30, 2026 dips to 19%1%
Anthropic announced Project Glasswing and the restricted Claude Mythos Preview model, which is more capable than Opus 4.7 but only available to select partners for cybersecurity tasks. This model is not publicly accessible, thus not fulfilling the criteria for a public Claude 5 release by end of 2025.
Mar 31 2026
Anthropic ships Claude Opus 4.6 and Sonnet 4.6 but no official Claude 5 release
June 30, 2026 jumps to 56%6%
Anthropic publicly released Claude Opus 4.6 and Sonnet 4.6 models but has not announced any model officially named Claude 5, maintaining uncertainty about the next major release. This contributed to initial market price fluctuations as anticipation for Claude 5 remained speculative.
Mar 27 2026
No public Claude 5 release announced; Anthropic shipping Claude 4.6 models
As of late March 2026, Anthropic had publicly released Claude Opus 4.6 and Sonnet 4.6 but had not announced any model named Claude 5. This absence of a public release contributed to market uncertainty about Claude 5 availability by the end of 2025.
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« Claude 5 libéré par… ? » est un marché de prédiction sur Polymarket avec 10 résultats possibles où les traders achètent et vendent des parts selon ce qu'ils pensent qu'il se passera. Le résultat en tête actuel est « 30 septembre 2026 » à 69%, suivi de « 30 juin 2026 » à 37%. Les prix reflètent des probabilités en temps réel de la communauté. Par exemple, une part cotée à 69¢ implique que le marché attribue collectivement une probabilité de 69% à ce résultat. Ces cotes changent en permanence. Les parts du résultat correct sont échangeables contre $1 chacune lors de la résolution du marché.
À ce jour, « Claude 5 libéré par… ? » a généré $4.1 million en volume total de trading depuis le lancement du marché le Aug 7, 2025. Ce niveau d'activité reflète un fort engagement de la communauté Polymarket et garantit que les cotes actuelles sont alimentées par un large bassin de participants. Vous pouvez suivre les mouvements de prix en direct et trader sur n'importe quel résultat directement sur cette page.
Pour trader sur « Claude 5 libéré par… ? », parcourez les 10 résultats disponibles sur cette page. Chaque résultat affiche un prix actuel représentant la probabilité implicite du marché. Pour prendre position, sélectionnez le résultat que vous estimez le plus probable, choisissez « Oui » pour trader en sa faveur ou « Non » pour trader contre, entrez votre montant et cliquez sur « Trader ». Si votre résultat choisi est correct lors de la résolution, vos parts « Oui » rapportent $1 chacune. S'il est incorrect, elles rapportent $0. Vous pouvez également vendre vos parts avant la résolution.
Le favori actuel pour « Claude 5 libéré par… ? » est « 30 septembre 2026 » à 69%, ce qui signifie que le marché attribue une probabilité de 69% à ce résultat. Le résultat le plus proche ensuite est « 30 juin 2026 » à 37%. Ces cotes sont mises à jour en temps réel à mesure que les traders achètent et vendent des parts. Revenez fréquemment ou ajoutez cette page à vos favoris.
Les règles de résolution de « Claude 5 libéré par… ? » définissent exactement ce qui doit se produire pour que chaque résultat soit déclaré gagnant, y compris les sources de données officielles utilisées pour déterminer le résultat. Vous pouvez consulter les critères de résolution complets dans la section « Règles » sur cette page au-dessus des commentaires. Nous recommandons de lire attentivement les règles avant de trader, car elles précisent les conditions exactes, les cas particuliers et les sources.
Oui. Vous n'avez pas besoin de trader pour rester informé. Cette page sert de suivi en direct pour « Claude 5 libéré par… ? ». Les probabilités des résultats sont mises à jour en temps réel à mesure que de nouvelles transactions arrivent. Vous pouvez ajouter cette page à vos favoris et consulter la section commentaires pour voir ce que disent les autres traders. Vous pouvez également utiliser les filtres de plage temporelle sur le graphique pour voir comment les cotes ont évolué au fil du temps.
Les cotes de Polymarket sont fixées par de vrais traders qui mettent de l'argent réel derrière leurs convictions, ce qui tend à produire des prédictions précises. Avec $4.1 million échangés sur « Claude 5 libéré par… ? », ces prix agrègent les connaissances collectives et la conviction de milliers de participants — surpassant souvent les sondages, les prévisions d’experts et les enquêtes traditionnelles. Les marchés de prédiction comme Polymarket ont un solide historique de précision, surtout à mesure que les événements approchent de leur date de résolution. Par exemple, Polymarket a un score de précision sur un mois de 94%. Pour les dernières statistiques sur la précision des prédictions de Polymarket, visitez la page de précision sur Polymarket.
Pour placer votre première transaction sur « Claude 5 libéré par… ? », inscrivez-vous pour un compte Polymarket gratuit et approvisionnez-le en utilisant des cryptomonnaies, une carte de crédit ou débit, ou un virement bancaire. Une fois votre compte approvisionné, revenez sur cette page, sélectionnez le résultat sur lequel vous souhaitez trader, entrez votre montant et cliquez sur « Trader ». Si vous êtes nouveau dans les marchés de prédiction, cliquez sur le lien « Comment ça marche » en haut de n'importe quelle page Polymarket pour un guide étape par étape.
Sur Polymarket, le prix de chaque résultat représente la probabilité implicite du marché. Un prix de 69¢ pour « 30 septembre 2026 » sur le marché « Claude 5 libéré par… ? » signifie que les traders estiment collectivement qu'il y a environ une probabilité de 69% que « 30 septembre 2026 » sera le résultat correct. Si vous achetez des parts « Oui » à 69¢ et que le résultat est correct, vous recevez $1,00 par part — un gain de 31¢ par part. S'il est incorrect, ces parts valent $0.
La date de fin prévue du marché « Claude 5 libéré par… ? » est passée, mais le marché n'a pas encore été officiellement résolu. La date de fin indique quand l'événement sous-jacent est censé se produire ou devenir connaissable. Le marché reste ouvert au trading jusqu'à ce que le résultat soit formellement résolu. Consultez le statut de résolution et la section « Règles » sur cette page pour les mises à jour.
Le marché « Claude 5 libéré par… ? » a une communauté active de 209 commentaires où les traders partagent leurs analyses, débattent des résultats et discutent des derniers développements. Faites défiler jusqu'à la section commentaires ci-dessous pour lire ce que pensent les autres participants. Vous pouvez également filtrer par « Principaux détenteurs » ou consulter l'onglet « Activité » pour un flux en temps réel des transactions.
Polymarket est le plus grand marché de prédiction au monde, où vous pouvez rester informé et profiter de vos connaissances sur les événements du monde réel. Les traders achètent et vendent des parts sur des résultats allant de la politique et des élections aux cryptomonnaies, finances, sports, technologie et culture, y compris des marchés comme « Claude 5 libéré par… ? ». Les prix reflètent des probabilités en temps réel soutenues par une conviction financière, fournissant souvent des signaux plus rapides et plus précis que les sondages, les commentateurs ou les enquêtes traditionnelles.
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