Recent polls show a fragmented field for Berlin's September 20 state election, with Linke, CDU, Grüne, AfD, and SPD clustered between roughly 15-21 percent amid local concerns over rents, housing, security, and transport. The CDU's replacement of top candidate Kai Wegner with Stefan Evers after his withdrawal has contributed to uncertainty without shifting the overall balance. This tight distribution among five or more parties sustains competitive implied probabilities for fourth place, as small swings in turnout or late campaign focus on key issues could reorder the mid-tier results. Traders appear to weigh the absence of a dominant frontrunner and ongoing volatility in summer surveys when assessing separation among contenders.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourLes Verts 45%
AfD 18%
Linke 17%
CDU 10%
NOUVEAU
NOUVEAU
20 sept. 2026
Les Verts
45%
AfD
18%
Linke
17%
CDU
14%
SPD
7%
FDP
5%
BSW
4%
FW
3%
Les Verts 45%
AfD 18%
Linke 17%
CDU 10%
NOUVEAU
NOUVEAU
20 sept. 2026
Les Verts
$2,724 Vol.
45%
AfD
$36 Vol.
18%
Linke
$183 Vol.
17%
CDU
$56 Vol.
14%
SPD
$36 Vol.
7%
FDP
$99 Vol.
5%
BSW
$51 Vol.
4%
FW
$84 Vol.
3%
Parliamentary elections to elect the Abgeordnetehaus of Berlin are scheduled to take place in Berlin on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve to the political party that wins the fourth-greatest number of seats in the formal deliberative assembly of Berlin (Abgeordnetenhaus) as a result of this election.
If voting in the Berlin election for the Abgeordnetenhaus does not occur by December 31, 2026, this market will resolve to "Other".
The named parties or coalitions will be primarily ranked by the number of seats won in the specified election. If two or more parties are tied on seats, ties will be broken by the total number of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) received, with higher vote totals ranking higher. If parties remain tied, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the listed party names/abbreviations. This market will resolve to the party that occupies the fourth finishing position after applying this ranking.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition.
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/)
Recent polls show a fragmented field for Berlin's September 20 state election, with Linke, CDU, Grüne, AfD, and SPD clustered between roughly 15-21 percent amid local concerns over rents, housing, security, and transport. The CDU's replacement of top candidate Kai Wegner with Stefan Evers after his withdrawal has contributed to uncertainty without shifting the overall balance. This tight distribution among five or more parties sustains competitive implied probabilities for fourth place, as small swings in turnout or late campaign focus on key issues could reorder the mid-tier results. Traders appear to weigh the absence of a dominant frontrunner and ongoing volatility in summer surveys when assessing separation among contenders.
Parliamentary elections to elect the Abgeordnetehaus of Berlin are scheduled to take place in Berlin on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve to the political party that wins the fourth-greatest number of seats in the formal deliberative assembly of Berlin (Abgeordnetenhaus) as a result of this election.
If voting in the Berlin election for the Abgeordnetenhaus does not occur by December 31, 2026, this market will resolve to "Other".
The named parties or coalitions will be primarily ranked by the number of seats won in the specified election. If two or more parties are tied on seats, ties will be broken by the total number of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) received, with higher vote totals ranking higher. If parties remain tied, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the listed party names/abbreviations. This market will resolve to the party that occupies the fourth finishing position after applying this ranking.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition.
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/)
This market will resolve to the political party that wins the fourth-greatest number of seats in the formal deliberative assembly of Berlin (Abgeordnetenhaus) as a result of this election.
If voting in the Berlin election for the Abgeordnetenhaus does not occur by December 31, 2026, this market will resolve to "Other".
The named parties or coalitions will be primarily ranked by the number of seats won in the specified election. If two or more parties are tied on seats, ties will be broken by the total number of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) received, with higher vote totals ranking higher. If parties remain tied, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the listed party names/abbreviations. This market will resolve to the party that occupies the fourth finishing position after applying this ranking.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition.
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/)
Marché ouvert : Aug 20, 2026, 2:14 PM ET
Volume
$3,267Date de fin
20 sept. 2026Marché ouvert
Aug 20, 2026, 2:14 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Parliamentary elections to elect the Abgeordnetehaus of Berlin are scheduled to take place in Berlin on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve to the political party that wins the fourth-greatest number of seats in the formal deliberative assembly of Berlin (Abgeordnetenhaus) as a result of this election.
If voting in the Berlin election for the Abgeordnetenhaus does not occur by December 31, 2026, this market will resolve to "Other".
The named parties or coalitions will be primarily ranked by the number of seats won in the specified election. If two or more parties are tied on seats, ties will be broken by the total number of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) received, with higher vote totals ranking higher. If parties remain tied, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the listed party names/abbreviations. This market will resolve to the party that occupies the fourth finishing position after applying this ranking.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition.
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/)
Recent polls show a fragmented field for Berlin's September 20 state election, with Linke, CDU, Grüne, AfD, and SPD clustered between roughly 15-21 percent amid local concerns over rents, housing, security, and transport. The CDU's replacement of top candidate Kai Wegner with Stefan Evers after his withdrawal has contributed to uncertainty without shifting the overall balance. This tight distribution among five or more parties sustains competitive implied probabilities for fourth place, as small swings in turnout or late campaign focus on key issues could reorder the mid-tier results. Traders appear to weigh the absence of a dominant frontrunner and ongoing volatility in summer surveys when assessing separation among contenders.
Parliamentary elections to elect the Abgeordnetehaus of Berlin are scheduled to take place in Berlin on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve to the political party that wins the fourth-greatest number of seats in the formal deliberative assembly of Berlin (Abgeordnetenhaus) as a result of this election.
If voting in the Berlin election for the Abgeordnetenhaus does not occur by December 31, 2026, this market will resolve to "Other".
The named parties or coalitions will be primarily ranked by the number of seats won in the specified election. If two or more parties are tied on seats, ties will be broken by the total number of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) received, with higher vote totals ranking higher. If parties remain tied, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the listed party names/abbreviations. This market will resolve to the party that occupies the fourth finishing position after applying this ranking.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition.
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/)
This market will resolve to the political party that wins the fourth-greatest number of seats in the formal deliberative assembly of Berlin (Abgeordnetenhaus) as a result of this election.
If voting in the Berlin election for the Abgeordnetenhaus does not occur by December 31, 2026, this market will resolve to "Other".
The named parties or coalitions will be primarily ranked by the number of seats won in the specified election. If two or more parties are tied on seats, ties will be broken by the total number of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) received, with higher vote totals ranking higher. If parties remain tied, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the listed party names/abbreviations. This market will resolve to the party that occupies the fourth finishing position after applying this ranking.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition.
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/)
Volume
$3,267Date de fin
20 sept. 2026Marché ouvert
Aug 20, 2026, 2:14 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent polls show a fragmented field for Berlin's September 20 state election, with Linke, CDU, Grüne, AfD, and SPD clustered between roughly 15-21 percent amid local concerns over rents, housing, security, and transport. The CDU's replacement of top candidate Kai Wegner with Stefan Evers after his withdrawal has contributed to uncertainty without shifting the overall balance. This tight distribution among five or more parties sustains competitive implied probabilities for fourth place, as small swings in turnout or late campaign focus on key issues could reorder the mid-tier results. Traders appear to weigh the absence of a dominant frontrunner and ongoing volatility in summer surveys when assessing separation among contenders.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
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