Elevated crude oil prices, driven by ongoing geopolitical disruptions including closures and attacks affecting Strait of Hormuz transit, remain the dominant factor supporting U.S. retail gasoline averages near $4.10 per gallon in late August 2026. Crude oil typically accounts for roughly half of pump prices, with recent WTI and Brent levels in the $80–$95 per barrel range amplified by reduced global supply, elevated refining margins, and the more expensive summer gasoline blend. Inventory draws, steady domestic demand, and asymmetric price pass-through—where increases transmit faster than declines—have kept readings at August records, up about $1 year-over-year. With resolution only days away, any near-term easing in Middle East tensions, refinery output shifts, or EIA inventory data could influence final settlement levels, though seasonal demand tailwinds are fading.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated$10,037 Vol.
Aug 30, 2026
↑ $5.00
3%
↑ $4.75
2%
↑ $4.50
4%
↑ $4.25
12%
↓ $3.90
2%
↓ $3.70
4%
↓ $3.50
3%
↓ $3.25
1%
↓ $3.00
1%
↓ $2.50
1%
$10,037 Vol.
↑ $5.00
$2,369 Vol.
3%
↑ $4.75
$366 Vol.
2%
↑ $4.50
$2,289 Vol.
4%
↑ $4.25
$1,604 Vol.
12%
↓ $3.90
$587 Vol.
2%
↓ $3.70
$1,511 Vol.
4%
↓ $3.50
$276 Vol.
3%
↓ $3.25
$348 Vol.
1%
↓ $3.00
$299 Vol.
1%
↓ $2.50
$389 Vol.
1%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if on any day between market creation and August 31, 2026, the average US regular gas price is equal to or above the listed price. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No".
Only the first two decimal digits of the reported price will be considered (e.g., if the price is reported as $3.257, this market will use $3.25 as the price).
The resolution source for this market will be information from the American Automobile Association (AAA), presently found here: https://gasprices.aaa.com/. Specifically, the cell under "Regular" and for the row "Current Avg".This market will resolve to "Yes" if on any day between market creation and August 31, 2026, the average US regular gas price is equal to or below the listed price. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No".
Only the first two decimal digits of the reported price will be considered (e.g., if the price is reported as $3.257, this market will use $3.25 as the price).
The resolution source for this market will be information from the American Automobile Association (AAA), presently found here: https://gasprices.aaa.com/. Specifically, the cell under "Regular" and for the row "Current Avg".Elevated crude oil prices, driven by ongoing geopolitical disruptions including closures and attacks affecting Strait of Hormuz transit, remain the dominant factor supporting U.S. retail gasoline averages near $4.10 per gallon in late August 2026. Crude oil typically accounts for roughly half of pump prices, with recent WTI and Brent levels in the $80–$95 per barrel range amplified by reduced global supply, elevated refining margins, and the more expensive summer gasoline blend. Inventory draws, steady domestic demand, and asymmetric price pass-through—where increases transmit faster than declines—have kept readings at August records, up about $1 year-over-year. With resolution only days away, any near-term easing in Middle East tensions, refinery output shifts, or EIA inventory data could influence final settlement levels, though seasonal demand tailwinds are fading.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if on any day between market creation and August 31, 2026, the average US regular gas price is equal to or above the listed price. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No".
Only the first two decimal digits of the reported price will be considered (e.g., if the price is reported as $3.257, this market will use $3.25 as the price).
The resolution source for this market will be information from the American Automobile Association (AAA), presently found here: https://gasprices.aaa.com/. Specifically, the cell under "Regular" and for the row "Current Avg".
Only the first two decimal digits of the reported price will be considered (e.g., if the price is reported as $3.257, this market will use $3.25 as the price).
The resolution source for this market will be information from the American Automobile Association (AAA), presently found here: https://gasprices.aaa.com/. Specifically, the cell under "Regular" and for the row "Current Avg".
Market Opened: Jul 29, 2026, 3:23 PM ET
Volume
$10,037End Date
Aug 31, 2026Market Opened
Jul 29, 2026, 3:23 PM ETResolution Source
https://gasprices.aaa.com/Resolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if on any day between market creation and August 31, 2026, the average US regular gas price is equal to or above the listed price. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No".
Only the first two decimal digits of the reported price will be considered (e.g., if the price is reported as $3.257, this market will use $3.25 as the price).
The resolution source for this market will be information from the American Automobile Association (AAA), presently found here: https://gasprices.aaa.com/. Specifically, the cell under "Regular" and for the row "Current Avg".This market will resolve to "Yes" if on any day between market creation and August 31, 2026, the average US regular gas price is equal to or below the listed price. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No".
Only the first two decimal digits of the reported price will be considered (e.g., if the price is reported as $3.257, this market will use $3.25 as the price).
The resolution source for this market will be information from the American Automobile Association (AAA), presently found here: https://gasprices.aaa.com/. Specifically, the cell under "Regular" and for the row "Current Avg".Elevated crude oil prices, driven by ongoing geopolitical disruptions including closures and attacks affecting Strait of Hormuz transit, remain the dominant factor supporting U.S. retail gasoline averages near $4.10 per gallon in late August 2026. Crude oil typically accounts for roughly half of pump prices, with recent WTI and Brent levels in the $80–$95 per barrel range amplified by reduced global supply, elevated refining margins, and the more expensive summer gasoline blend. Inventory draws, steady domestic demand, and asymmetric price pass-through—where increases transmit faster than declines—have kept readings at August records, up about $1 year-over-year. With resolution only days away, any near-term easing in Middle East tensions, refinery output shifts, or EIA inventory data could influence final settlement levels, though seasonal demand tailwinds are fading.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if on any day between market creation and August 31, 2026, the average US regular gas price is equal to or above the listed price. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No".
Only the first two decimal digits of the reported price will be considered (e.g., if the price is reported as $3.257, this market will use $3.25 as the price).
The resolution source for this market will be information from the American Automobile Association (AAA), presently found here: https://gasprices.aaa.com/. Specifically, the cell under "Regular" and for the row "Current Avg".
Only the first two decimal digits of the reported price will be considered (e.g., if the price is reported as $3.257, this market will use $3.25 as the price).
The resolution source for this market will be information from the American Automobile Association (AAA), presently found here: https://gasprices.aaa.com/. Specifically, the cell under "Regular" and for the row "Current Avg".
Volume
$10,037End Date
Aug 31, 2026Market Opened
Jul 29, 2026, 3:23 PM ETResolution Source
https://gasprices.aaa.com/Resolver
0x65070BE91...Elevated crude oil prices, driven by ongoing geopolitical disruptions including closures and attacks affecting Strait of Hormuz transit, remain the dominant factor supporting U.S. retail gasoline averages near $4.10 per gallon in late August 2026. Crude oil typically accounts for roughly half of pump prices, with recent WTI and Brent levels in the $80–$95 per barrel range amplified by reduced global supply, elevated refining margins, and the more expensive summer gasoline blend. Inventory draws, steady domestic demand, and asymmetric price pass-through—where increases transmit faster than declines—have kept readings at August records, up about $1 year-over-year. With resolution only days away, any near-term easing in Middle East tensions, refinery output shifts, or EIA inventory data could influence final settlement levels, though seasonal demand tailwinds are fading.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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