**Strong second-weekend hold and limited August competition anchor trader expectations for Spider-Man: Brand New Day’s third frame in the mid-to-high $60 million range.** After a record $360 million opening and a solid $144 million second weekend that pushed domestic totals past $690 million, the Tom Holland-led Marvel title faces a typical 50-60% drop typical for summer tentpoles with strong word-of-mouth but fading newness. Industry trackers project $57–77 million, with most clustering near $65–72 million given the film’s legs and lack of direct rivals. The market’s tight clustering around 66–70 million reflects uncertainty over exact hold percentage versus historical MCU precedents, while the sub-3% odds on 72 million-plus underscore how rare sustained three-peats remain at this scale. Next week’s actuals and any surprise breakout competition will be the key swing factors.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated"Spider-Man: Brand New Day" 3rd Weekend Box Office (Lower Strikes)
"Spider-Man: Brand New Day" 3rd Weekend Box Office (Lower Strikes)
<66m 58%
66-68m 32%
68-70m 32%
70-72m 32%
NEW
NEW
Aug 16, 2026
<66m
58%
66-68m
32%
68-70m
32%
70-72m
32%
72m+
3%
<66m 58%
66-68m 32%
68-70m 32%
70-72m 32%
NEW
NEW
Aug 16, 2026
<66m
$0 Vol.
58%
66-68m
$0 Vol.
32%
68-70m
$0 Vol.
32%
70-72m
$0 Vol.
32%
72m+
$0 Vol.
3%
This market will resolve according to how much "Spider-Man: Brand New Day" Weekend Box Office will gross domestically on its third weekend. The "Daily Box Office Performance" figures found on the “Box Office” tab on this movie's The Numbers (https://www.the-numbers.com/) page will be used to resolve this market once the values for the 3-day weekend (August 14 - August 16) are final (i.e., not studio estimates).
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Please note, this market will resolve according to the The Numbers figures provided under Weekend Box Office Performance for the 3-day weekend (which typically includes Thursday's previews), regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc.
If there is ambiguity as to whether the resolution source's figures are final, this market will remain open until both https://www.boxofficemojo.com/ and https://www.the-numbers.com/ have confirmed their finalized figures.
If there is no final data available by August 21, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.**Strong second-weekend hold and limited August competition anchor trader expectations for Spider-Man: Brand New Day’s third frame in the mid-to-high $60 million range.** After a record $360 million opening and a solid $144 million second weekend that pushed domestic totals past $690 million, the Tom Holland-led Marvel title faces a typical 50-60% drop typical for summer tentpoles with strong word-of-mouth but fading newness. Industry trackers project $57–77 million, with most clustering near $65–72 million given the film’s legs and lack of direct rivals. The market’s tight clustering around 66–70 million reflects uncertainty over exact hold percentage versus historical MCU precedents, while the sub-3% odds on 72 million-plus underscore how rare sustained three-peats remain at this scale. Next week’s actuals and any surprise breakout competition will be the key swing factors.
This market will resolve according to how much "Spider-Man: Brand New Day" Weekend Box Office will gross domestically on its third weekend. The "Daily Box Office Performance" figures found on the “Box Office” tab on this movie's The Numbers (https://www.the-numbers.com/) page will be used to resolve this market once the values for the 3-day weekend (August 14 - August 16) are final (i.e., not studio estimates).
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Please note, this market will resolve according to the The Numbers figures provided under Weekend Box Office Performance for the 3-day weekend (which typically includes Thursday's previews), regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc.
If there is ambiguity as to whether the resolution source's figures are final, this market will remain open until both https://www.boxofficemojo.com/ and https://www.the-numbers.com/ have confirmed their finalized figures.
If there is no final data available by August 21, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Please note, this market will resolve according to the The Numbers figures provided under Weekend Box Office Performance for the 3-day weekend (which typically includes Thursday's previews), regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc.
If there is ambiguity as to whether the resolution source's figures are final, this market will remain open until both https://www.boxofficemojo.com/ and https://www.the-numbers.com/ have confirmed their finalized figures.
If there is no final data available by August 21, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
Market Opened: Aug 13, 2026, 7:10 PM ET
Volume
$0End Date
Aug 16, 2026Market Opened
Aug 13, 2026, 7:10 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to how much "Spider-Man: Brand New Day" Weekend Box Office will gross domestically on its third weekend. The "Daily Box Office Performance" figures found on the “Box Office” tab on this movie's The Numbers (https://www.the-numbers.com/) page will be used to resolve this market once the values for the 3-day weekend (August 14 - August 16) are final (i.e., not studio estimates).
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Please note, this market will resolve according to the The Numbers figures provided under Weekend Box Office Performance for the 3-day weekend (which typically includes Thursday's previews), regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc.
If there is ambiguity as to whether the resolution source's figures are final, this market will remain open until both https://www.boxofficemojo.com/ and https://www.the-numbers.com/ have confirmed their finalized figures.
If there is no final data available by August 21, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.**Strong second-weekend hold and limited August competition anchor trader expectations for Spider-Man: Brand New Day’s third frame in the mid-to-high $60 million range.** After a record $360 million opening and a solid $144 million second weekend that pushed domestic totals past $690 million, the Tom Holland-led Marvel title faces a typical 50-60% drop typical for summer tentpoles with strong word-of-mouth but fading newness. Industry trackers project $57–77 million, with most clustering near $65–72 million given the film’s legs and lack of direct rivals. The market’s tight clustering around 66–70 million reflects uncertainty over exact hold percentage versus historical MCU precedents, while the sub-3% odds on 72 million-plus underscore how rare sustained three-peats remain at this scale. Next week’s actuals and any surprise breakout competition will be the key swing factors.
This market will resolve according to how much "Spider-Man: Brand New Day" Weekend Box Office will gross domestically on its third weekend. The "Daily Box Office Performance" figures found on the “Box Office” tab on this movie's The Numbers (https://www.the-numbers.com/) page will be used to resolve this market once the values for the 3-day weekend (August 14 - August 16) are final (i.e., not studio estimates).
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Please note, this market will resolve according to the The Numbers figures provided under Weekend Box Office Performance for the 3-day weekend (which typically includes Thursday's previews), regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc.
If there is ambiguity as to whether the resolution source's figures are final, this market will remain open until both https://www.boxofficemojo.com/ and https://www.the-numbers.com/ have confirmed their finalized figures.
If there is no final data available by August 21, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Please note, this market will resolve according to the The Numbers figures provided under Weekend Box Office Performance for the 3-day weekend (which typically includes Thursday's previews), regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc.
If there is ambiguity as to whether the resolution source's figures are final, this market will remain open until both https://www.boxofficemojo.com/ and https://www.the-numbers.com/ have confirmed their finalized figures.
If there is no final data available by August 21, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
Volume
$0End Date
Aug 16, 2026Market Opened
Aug 13, 2026, 7:10 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...**Strong second-weekend hold and limited August competition anchor trader expectations for Spider-Man: Brand New Day’s third frame in the mid-to-high $60 million range.** After a record $360 million opening and a solid $144 million second weekend that pushed domestic totals past $690 million, the Tom Holland-led Marvel title faces a typical 50-60% drop typical for summer tentpoles with strong word-of-mouth but fading newness. Industry trackers project $57–77 million, with most clustering near $65–72 million given the film’s legs and lack of direct rivals. The market’s tight clustering around 66–70 million reflects uncertainty over exact hold percentage versus historical MCU precedents, while the sub-3% odds on 72 million-plus underscore how rare sustained three-peats remain at this scale. Next week’s actuals and any surprise breakout competition will be the key swing factors.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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