Cleveland Cavaliers hold overwhelming market consensus at 95.2% for James Harden’s next team due to repeated reporting that the veteran guard declined his $42.3 million player option after a February 2026 midseason trade from the Clippers and is actively negotiating a shorter multiyear extension to remain in Cleveland. The move helped the Cavs reach the Eastern Conference finals, where Harden’s playmaking alongside Donovan Mitchell and Evan Mobley earned strong internal support. Recent updates indicate the sides are finalizing a deal capped at roughly two guaranteed years to manage second-apron restrictions while retaining roster flexibility. Scenarios that could shift probabilities include an unexpected pivot to another suitor offering more guaranteed money or a sudden change in Cleveland’s front-office plans, though current developments show no such movement.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedNBA Free Agency: James Harden Next Team
NBA Free Agency: James Harden Next Team
Cleveland Cavaliers 95.2%
Detroit Pistons 2.9%
Golden State Warriors 2.5%
Toronto Raptors 1.9%
$1,289,130 Vol.
$1,289,130 Vol.
Cleveland Cavaliers
95%
Detroit Pistons
3%
Golden State Warriors
3%
Toronto Raptors
2%
Houston Rockets
1%
Boston Celtics
1%
Phoenix Suns
1%
San Antonio Spurs
1%
Atlanta Hawks
1%
Memphis Grizzlies
<1%
Portland Trail Blazers
<1%
Washington Wizards
<1%
Indiana Pacers
<1%
Philadelphia 76ers
<1%
Chicago Bulls
<1%
LA Clippers
<1%
New York Knicks
<1%
Oklahoma City Thunder
<1%
Utah Jazz
<1%
Dallas Mavericks
<1%
Brooklyn Nets
<1%
Denver Nuggets
<1%
Miami Heat
<1%
Milwaukee Bucks
<1%
Minnesota Timberwolves
<1%
Sacramento Kings
<1%
Charlotte Hornets
<1%
Los Angeles Lakers
<1%
New Orleans Pelicans
<1%
Orlando Magic
<1%
Cleveland Cavaliers 95.2%
Detroit Pistons 2.9%
Golden State Warriors 2.5%
Toronto Raptors 1.9%
$1,289,130 Vol.
$1,289,130 Vol.
Cleveland Cavaliers
95%
Detroit Pistons
3%
Golden State Warriors
3%
Toronto Raptors
2%
Houston Rockets
1%
Boston Celtics
1%
Phoenix Suns
1%
San Antonio Spurs
1%
Atlanta Hawks
1%
Memphis Grizzlies
<1%
Portland Trail Blazers
<1%
Washington Wizards
<1%
Indiana Pacers
<1%
Philadelphia 76ers
<1%
Chicago Bulls
<1%
LA Clippers
<1%
New York Knicks
<1%
Oklahoma City Thunder
<1%
Utah Jazz
<1%
Dallas Mavericks
<1%
Brooklyn Nets
<1%
Denver Nuggets
<1%
Miami Heat
<1%
Milwaukee Bucks
<1%
Minnesota Timberwolves
<1%
Sacramento Kings
<1%
Charlotte Hornets
<1%
Los Angeles Lakers
<1%
New Orleans Pelicans
<1%
Orlando Magic
<1%
If James Harden does not officially join a new team by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
If James Harden joins a team that is not listed, this market will resolve to "Other".
If James Harden is released, retires, or is not under contract with any professional team by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
An official signing announcement prior to the market's close date will immediately resolve this market to the corresponding option.
The primary resolution sources for this market will be official announcements from the NBA and/or the acquiring team. A consensus of credible media reporting may also be used to resolve the market.
Market Opened: Jun 22, 2026, 8:02 PM ET
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...If James Harden does not officially join a new team by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
If James Harden joins a team that is not listed, this market will resolve to "Other".
If James Harden is released, retires, or is not under contract with any professional team by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
An official signing announcement prior to the market's close date will immediately resolve this market to the corresponding option.
The primary resolution sources for this market will be official announcements from the NBA and/or the acquiring team. A consensus of credible media reporting may also be used to resolve the market.
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...Cleveland Cavaliers hold overwhelming market consensus at 95.2% for James Harden’s next team due to repeated reporting that the veteran guard declined his $42.3 million player option after a February 2026 midseason trade from the Clippers and is actively negotiating a shorter multiyear extension to remain in Cleveland. The move helped the Cavs reach the Eastern Conference finals, where Harden’s playmaking alongside Donovan Mitchell and Evan Mobley earned strong internal support. Recent updates indicate the sides are finalizing a deal capped at roughly two guaranteed years to manage second-apron restrictions while retaining roster flexibility. Scenarios that could shift probabilities include an unexpected pivot to another suitor offering more guaranteed money or a sudden change in Cleveland’s front-office plans, though current developments show no such movement.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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