Global seismic monitoring by the USGS shows no active precursors or elevated strain accumulation on major subduction zones capable of producing a magnitude 8+ event in the next three weeks. Megaquakes remain statistically rare, with historical recurrence intervals spanning decades to centuries along high-risk faults, and current worldwide catalogs record only background seismicity well below threshold levels. Traders assign 89.5% implied probability to “No” because short-term forecasts lack the clustered aftershocks, slow-slip events, or GPS-detected crustal deformation that would elevate near-term odds. Updated USGS weekly reports and real-time seismic networks continue to show normal activity patterns, reinforcing the low likelihood of resolution by June 30.