Lacy and Marlon launched their continuous gaming gauntlet on September 1, clearing Fortnite and Warzone in roughly 25 hours before shifting to the higher-variance Hardcore Minecraft leg. Trader consensus now centers on completion by September 14 at an 87% implied probability, driven by the duo’s established endurance from their 2025 Minecraft marathon finished in four days and a 2026 Chained Together run completed in 22 hours. Key factors include duo coordination, death management, stamina demands, and limited recent Hardcore practice, which introduce execution risk in the Nether, Blaze, and Ender Dragon phases. Official Twitch broadcasts determine resolution, with earlier dates carrying sharply lower probabilities amid ongoing progress.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated$373,666 Vol.
September 4 (11:59 PM)
<1%
September 5 (11:59 PM)
6%
September 6 (11:59 PM)
30%
September 7 (11:59 PM)
54%
September 10 (11:59 PM)
69%
September 14 (11:59 PM)
77%
$373,666 Vol.
September 4 (11:59 PM)
<1%
September 5 (11:59 PM)
6%
September 6 (11:59 PM)
30%
September 7 (11:59 PM)
54%
September 10 (11:59 PM)
69%
September 14 (11:59 PM)
77%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Lacy and Marlon complete all three aforementioned objectives of the challenge live on stream by the specified date and time (ET).
An objective must be achieved on stream and accepted by Lacy and Marlon as complete, regardless of any rule changes made during the challenge. An objective will not be treated as completed if they void and continue pursuing it.
Only events occurring while at least one of the two players is broadcasting the challenge live will count. Footage of off-stream or previously recorded attempts will not qualify.
If the challenge is cancelled by, abandoned before completion by, or not completed by the specified date and time, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market will be the official broadcasts of Lacy and Marlon.
Market Opened: Sep 1, 2026, 5:34 PM ET
Resolution Source
https://www.twitch.tv/lacyResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Lacy and Marlon complete all three aforementioned objectives of the challenge live on stream by the specified date and time (ET).
An objective must be achieved on stream and accepted by Lacy and Marlon as complete, regardless of any rule changes made during the challenge. An objective will not be treated as completed if they void and continue pursuing it.
Only events occurring while at least one of the two players is broadcasting the challenge live will count. Footage of off-stream or previously recorded attempts will not qualify.
If the challenge is cancelled by, abandoned before completion by, or not completed by the specified date and time, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market will be the official broadcasts of Lacy and Marlon.
Resolution Source
https://www.twitch.tv/lacyResolver
0x65070BE91...Lacy and Marlon launched their continuous gaming gauntlet on September 1, clearing Fortnite and Warzone in roughly 25 hours before shifting to the higher-variance Hardcore Minecraft leg. Trader consensus now centers on completion by September 14 at an 87% implied probability, driven by the duo’s established endurance from their 2025 Minecraft marathon finished in four days and a 2026 Chained Together run completed in 22 hours. Key factors include duo coordination, death management, stamina demands, and limited recent Hardcore practice, which introduce execution risk in the Nether, Blaze, and Ender Dragon phases. Official Twitch broadcasts determine resolution, with earlier dates carrying sharply lower probabilities amid ongoing progress.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated

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