Recent U.S. inflation data, including a hotter-than-expected August core CPI and 0.4% rise in producer prices, have driven sharp repricing of Federal Reserve policy, with markets now assigning 70-90% odds of a 25-basis-point rate hike at the September 15-16 FOMC meeting. This has lifted the 5-year Treasury yield to 4.79% as of September 11, up from around 4.5% earlier in the month, alongside the 10-year yield approaching 5% and the 2-year yield at multi-month highs. Hawkish signals from Chair Kevin Warsh at Jackson Hole, persistent energy price pressures, and elevated PCE readings near 3.7% have reinforced trader expectations for tighter policy through year-end, with the 5-year segment particularly sensitive to revised medium-term rate paths. The imminent FOMC decision and follow-on labor and retail sales data represent the key near-term catalysts that could extend or moderate the recent yield advance.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated$18,779 Vol.
Sep 30, 2026
4.90%
41%
4.83%
62%
$18,779 Vol.
4.90%
$1,659 Vol.
41%
4.83%
$4,534 Vol.
62%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 5-year yield reaches or is higher than the listed value for any date between September 3, 2026 and September 30, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve as soon as the Treasury 5-year yield reaches or is higher than the listed value, or once data is available for September 30, 2026. If no qualifying value is published and data is not available for September 30, 2026 by October 14, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specifically the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "5 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2026).Recent U.S. inflation data, including a hotter-than-expected August core CPI and 0.4% rise in producer prices, have driven sharp repricing of Federal Reserve policy, with markets now assigning 70-90% odds of a 25-basis-point rate hike at the September 15-16 FOMC meeting. This has lifted the 5-year Treasury yield to 4.79% as of September 11, up from around 4.5% earlier in the month, alongside the 10-year yield approaching 5% and the 2-year yield at multi-month highs. Hawkish signals from Chair Kevin Warsh at Jackson Hole, persistent energy price pressures, and elevated PCE readings near 3.7% have reinforced trader expectations for tighter policy through year-end, with the 5-year segment particularly sensitive to revised medium-term rate paths. The imminent FOMC decision and follow-on labor and retail sales data represent the key near-term catalysts that could extend or moderate the recent yield advance.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 5-year yield reaches or is higher than the listed value for any date between September 3, 2026 and September 30, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve as soon as the Treasury 5-year yield reaches or is higher than the listed value, or once data is available for September 30, 2026. If no qualifying value is published and data is not available for September 30, 2026 by October 14, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specifically the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "5 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2026).
This market will resolve as soon as the Treasury 5-year yield reaches or is higher than the listed value, or once data is available for September 30, 2026. If no qualifying value is published and data is not available for September 30, 2026 by October 14, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specifically the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "5 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2026).
Market Opened: Sep 2, 2026, 9:06 PM ET
Volume
$18,779End Date
Sep 30, 2026Market Opened
Sep 2, 2026, 9:06 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 5-year yield reaches or is higher than the listed value for any date between September 3, 2026 and September 30, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve as soon as the Treasury 5-year yield reaches or is higher than the listed value, or once data is available for September 30, 2026. If no qualifying value is published and data is not available for September 30, 2026 by October 14, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specifically the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "5 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2026).Recent U.S. inflation data, including a hotter-than-expected August core CPI and 0.4% rise in producer prices, have driven sharp repricing of Federal Reserve policy, with markets now assigning 70-90% odds of a 25-basis-point rate hike at the September 15-16 FOMC meeting. This has lifted the 5-year Treasury yield to 4.79% as of September 11, up from around 4.5% earlier in the month, alongside the 10-year yield approaching 5% and the 2-year yield at multi-month highs. Hawkish signals from Chair Kevin Warsh at Jackson Hole, persistent energy price pressures, and elevated PCE readings near 3.7% have reinforced trader expectations for tighter policy through year-end, with the 5-year segment particularly sensitive to revised medium-term rate paths. The imminent FOMC decision and follow-on labor and retail sales data represent the key near-term catalysts that could extend or moderate the recent yield advance.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 5-year yield reaches or is higher than the listed value for any date between September 3, 2026 and September 30, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve as soon as the Treasury 5-year yield reaches or is higher than the listed value, or once data is available for September 30, 2026. If no qualifying value is published and data is not available for September 30, 2026 by October 14, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specifically the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "5 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2026).
This market will resolve as soon as the Treasury 5-year yield reaches or is higher than the listed value, or once data is available for September 30, 2026. If no qualifying value is published and data is not available for September 30, 2026 by October 14, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specifically the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "5 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2026).
Volume
$18,779End Date
Sep 30, 2026Market Opened
Sep 2, 2026, 9:06 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Recent U.S. inflation data, including a hotter-than-expected August core CPI and 0.4% rise in producer prices, have driven sharp repricing of Federal Reserve policy, with markets now assigning 70-90% odds of a 25-basis-point rate hike at the September 15-16 FOMC meeting. This has lifted the 5-year Treasury yield to 4.79% as of September 11, up from around 4.5% earlier in the month, alongside the 10-year yield approaching 5% and the 2-year yield at multi-month highs. Hawkish signals from Chair Kevin Warsh at Jackson Hole, persistent energy price pressures, and elevated PCE readings near 3.7% have reinforced trader expectations for tighter policy through year-end, with the 5-year segment particularly sensitive to revised medium-term rate paths. The imminent FOMC decision and follow-on labor and retail sales data represent the key near-term catalysts that could extend or moderate the recent yield advance.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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