Recent mistrial in Harvey Weinstein’s New York retrial has sharply elevated the market-implied odds of no additional prison time to 78.5%. The May 2026 hung jury on the remaining charge, following a partial conviction and acquittal in the prior proceeding, limits further state-level sentencing exposure while Weinstein, now 74 and in poor health, continues serving his 16-year California term. Traders appear to price in sustained appeals of the Los Angeles conviction and the practical barriers to stacking consecutive time, given his age, medical conditions, and ongoing legal challenges. Upcoming appellate rulings and any potential plea discussions remain the key near-term catalysts that could still shift these probabilities.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHarvey Weinstein's third New York trial ends in mistrial due to jury deadlock
No Prison Time surges to 79%70%
The jury failed to reach a unanimous verdict on the rape charge involving Jessica Mann, leading to a mistrial declaration and increasing the likelihood of no additional prison time from this case.
Harvey Weinstein rape retrial ends in mistrial after jury deadlock
No Prison Time drops to 79%8%
The jury was unable to reach a unanimous verdict on the rape charge, leading the judge to declare a mistrial. This outcome increased market confidence in the "No Prison Time" option as the case remains unresolved.
Harvey Weinstein's third New York trial ends in mistrial due to deadlocked jury
No Prison Time surges to 84%54%
The jury was unable to reach a unanimous verdict on the rape charge, leading the judge to declare a mistrial. This outcome strongly increased the market's confidence in "No Prison Time" as the retrial did not conclude with a prison sentence.
Judge Farber postpones verdict in Weinstein retrial
No Prison Time drops to 84%9%
Following the closing arguments, Judge Farber announced a delayed verdict, keeping the outcome uncertain and causing a brief drop in the “No Prison Time” price before the market rebounded later in May.
Harvey Weinstein's New York rape retrial ends in mistrial after jury deadlock
No Prison Time dips to 79%2%
The jury deadlocked again on the rape charge involving Jessica Mann, leading to a mistrial and reinforcing market confidence in the 'No Prison Time' outcome for this retrial.
Prosecutors deliver closing arguments urging jury to convict Harvey Weinstein
No Prison Time surges to 89%19%
Prosecutors emphasized the power dynamics and strength of accusers, urging the jury to hold Weinstein accountable, which temporarily affected market prices but did not decisively shift outcome probabilities.
Harvey Weinstein's third New York rape retrial ends in mistrial after jury deadlock
No Prison Time surges to 80%55%
The third New York rape retrial of Harvey Weinstein ended in a mistrial after the jury was hopelessly deadlocked, with nine jurors reportedly favoring acquittal. This repeated failure to reach a verdict on the rape charge has reinforced market expectations that Weinstein will not receive additional prison time from this New York retrial.
Judge declares mistrial in Harvey Weinstein's New York rape retrial after jury deadlock
No Prison Time drops to 80%7%
On May 15, 2026, the judge declared a mistrial after the jury was hopelessly deadlocked on the rape charge involving Jessica Mann, marking the third time a jury failed to reach a verdict on this charge. This event significantly increased market confidence in the "No Prison Time" outcome for this retrial.
Prosecutors deliver closing arguments in Weinstein’s New York retrial
Prosecutors emphasized the accusers' credibility and urged the jury to hold Weinstein accountable, reinforcing the possibility of prison time but with ongoing uncertainty.
Harvey Weinstein retrial prosecution urges jury to 'let him know the rules apply to him'
Prosecutors delivered closing arguments emphasizing accountability, reinforcing the seriousness of charges and affecting market sentiment.
Harvey Weinstein convicted of sexual assault but acquitted on another in New York retrial
The jury found Weinstein guilty of sexually assaulting Miriam Haley but acquitted him of assaulting Kaja Sokola, with no verdict on the Jessica Mann rape charge, increasing uncertainty and market volatility.
Prosecutors urge jury to convict Harvey Weinstein in New York sex crimes retrial
Prosecutors delivered closing arguments emphasizing Weinstein's abuse of power and urging conviction, intensifying the trial's climax and impacting market expectations on prison time.
Harvey Weinstein reports chest pains during jury deliberations
No Prison Time surges to 87%34%
During jury deliberations in May 2026, Weinstein experienced chest pains and was briefly taken out of court, causing a temporary pause in deliberations. This health incident added uncertainty to the trial's outcome and affected market sentiment.
Harvey Weinstein retrial closing arguments conclude with prosecution urging conviction
No Prison Time drops to 40%6%
Prosecutors delivered closing arguments emphasizing the accusers' strength and the need to hold Weinstein accountable, reinforcing the possibility of prison time but also highlighting the contested nature of the case.
Harvey Weinstein Retrial Jury Declared Mistrial After Deadlock
No Prison Time surges to 79%72%
The jury was hopelessly deadlocked on the rape charge involving Jessica Mann, leading to a mistrial and significantly increasing market confidence in the "No Prison Time" outcome due to uncertainty about further sentencing.
Jury Deliberations Begin in Harvey Weinstein's Third Rape Trial
No Prison Time surges to 79%51%
After a monthlong trial, the jury began deliberating on the single count of third-degree rape involving Jessica Mann.
Harvey Weinstein reports chest pains during jury deliberations in rape retrial
During jury deliberations in Weinstein's 2026 New York rape retrial, he reported chest pains, causing the court to end deliberations early for the day. This health issue highlighted Weinstein's deteriorating condition but did not directly affect the trial outcome. The jury later resumed deliberations but ultimately deadlocked.
Harvey Weinstein's defense seeks acquittal as rape retrial nears closing
Weinstein's defense urged jurors to acquit him in the retrial focusing on the Jessica Mann rape charge, highlighting the ongoing contest over the case's outcome and influencing market sentiment.
Harvey Weinstein defense seeks acquittal as rape retrial nears conclusion
Defense attorneys urged jurors to acquit Weinstein, arguing the allegations were false, marking a critical moment in the trial that affected market expectations about sentencing.
Harvey Weinstein defense seeks acquittal as rape retrial nears closing
No Prison Time drops to 28%8%
Defense closing arguments urged jurors to acquit Weinstein, challenging the accuser's narrative and emphasizing complexities in their relationship. This development affected market expectations by highlighting the defense's confidence and potential for no prison time.
Harvey Weinstein's defense seeks acquittal as rape retrial comes to close
Closing arguments began with Weinstein's defense urging acquittal, emphasizing the complexity of the relationship with the accuser. This led to increased market uncertainty and a temporary dip in the no-prison-time probability.
Weinstein's defense seeks acquittal as rape retrial nears conclusion
Defense closing arguments emphasized the lack of proof for non-consensual sex, influencing market sentiment about the likelihood of conviction and sentencing.
Weinstein defense urges acquittal as retrial nears close
No Prison Time surges to 93%68%
Weinstein’s defense made a high‑profile closing‑argument appeal for acquittal, intensifying media coverage and pushing the market’s “No Prison Time” price sharply higher as a conviction seemed less likely.
Harvey Weinstein's defense seeks acquittal as rape retrial comes to close
No Prison Time jumps to 46%6%
Weinstein's defense made closing arguments urging acquittal, emphasizing consent and challenging accusers' credibility. This influenced market sentiment by raising the possibility of no prison time or a lighter sentence.
Prosecutors Urge Jury to Hold Weinstein Accountable in Retrial Closing Arguments
Prosecutors delivered closing arguments emphasizing the power dynamics and urging the jury to convict Weinstein, while defense argued accusers were motivated by money and fame, intensifying market speculation on sentencing.
Harvey Weinstein’s rape retrial opens in New York, third trial for same charge
Opening statements emphasized the power dynamics and consent issues central to the case, with prosecutors and defense presenting contrasting narratives. This event reinforced the trial's significance and influenced market pricing on sentencing outcomes.
Harvey Weinstein's Third New York Rape Trial Opens with Opening Statements
10-20 years drops to 13%13%
The third Manhattan sex-crimes trial officially opened, focusing on the remaining third-degree rape charge involving Jessica Mann.
Harvey Weinstein’s third New York rape retrial opens with opening statements
Opening statements in the third retrial emphasized power and consent issues, with prosecutors and defense presenting contrasting narratives, impacting market sentiment on conviction and sentencing likelihood.
Harvey Weinstein faces third New York rape retrial focusing on Jessica Mann charge
No Prison Time drops to 28%10%
A new retrial was scheduled focusing solely on the rape charge involving Jessica Mann, with jury selection beginning. This renewed trial phase caused market fluctuations as the case's outcome remained uncertain.
Harvey Weinstein's third New York rape retrial begins
No Prison Time surges to 27%20%
The third retrial of Harvey Weinstein on the rape charge involving Jessica Mann began in April 2026, focusing solely on this single charge after previous trials included multiple accusers and charges. This event marked a renewed legal effort and influenced market activity as the trial progressed.
Harvey Weinstein's Third New York Rape Trial Begins with Jury Selection
Jury selection started for Weinstein's third New York rape retrial focusing on the 2013 rape allegation by Jessica Mann. This retrial was a continuation of the unresolved legal process, impacting market sentiment with ongoing uncertainty about conviction and sentencing.
Harvey Weinstein to face third New York retrial on rape charge
A new retrial was scheduled focusing on a single charge involving Jessica Mann, renewing market attention and speculation on the potential sentence outcome.
Harvey Weinstein to face retrial on New York rape charge involving Jessica Mann
Jury selection began for Weinstein's latest retrial focusing solely on the rape charge involving Jessica Mann, narrowing the case and renewing market focus on this single charge's outcome.
Harvey Weinstein to face retrial on New York rape charge
ABC reported the scheduling of a new retrial for the remaining third‑degree rape charge, reviving the possibility of a lengthy prison sentence and shifting market interest away from “No Prison Time.”
Harvey Weinstein faces third New York rape retrial focusing on Jessica Mann charge
A new retrial began focusing solely on the rape charge involving Jessica Mann, narrowing the case and affecting market expectations about the likelihood of prison time outcomes.
Harvey Weinstein Replaces Legal Team with High-Profile Defense Attorneys Ahead of Third Trial
<5 years surges to 56%53%
Weinstein shook up his legal representation by hiring Jacob Kaplan and Marc Agnifilo, known for representing high-profile clients, to defend him in his upcoming third New York rape trial.
Judge Denies Harvey Weinstein's Motion for New Trial on Miriam Haley Conviction
No Prison Time surges to 25%18%
Judge Curtis Farber rejected Weinstein's bid to set aside his June 2025 conviction, solidifying the conviction and paving the way for a retrial on the deadlocked rape charge.
Prosecutors say they will review next steps after Weinstein‑mistrial
No Prison Time plunges to 9%32%
A New York appellate decision upheld the mistrial and announced that prosecutors would consider a fourth trial, reviving speculation of a future sentence and causing the market’s “No Prison Time” price to dip.
Weinstein sentenced to 16 years in California for rape and sexual assault
In December 2022, Weinstein was convicted in Los Angeles on three counts of rape and sexual assault and sentenced to 16 years in prison. This sentence is separate from the New York case and contributes to his overall prison time, making it likely he will spend the rest of his life incarcerated regardless of New York retrial outcomes.
Harvey Weinstein convicted of sexually abusing Miriam Haley in New York retrial
A jury convicted Weinstein of sexually abusing Haley, but acquitted him of assaulting Kaja Sokola and deadlocked on the rape charge involving Jessica Mann, leading to a mistrial on that count. This mixed verdict maintained uncertainty about sentencing.
New charges filed against Harvey Weinstein in New York
A New York grand jury indicted Weinstein on new charges in September 2024, which prosecutors sought to consolidate into his retrial. This development extended the legal proceedings and contributed to the complexity and length of the retrial process.
Jury deadlocks on rape charge in Weinstein retrial, mistrial declared
No Prison Time dips to 4%3%
The jury could not reach a unanimous verdict on the rape charge involving Jessica Mann, leading to a mistrial. This increased uncertainty about sentencing and influenced market prices toward "No Prison Time."
Jury deadlocks in Weinstein retrial on rape charge, mistrial declared
No Prison Time dips to 5%2%
The jury failed to reach a verdict on the rape charge involving Jessica Mann, leading to a mistrial and increasing uncertainty about a conviction in this retrial, impacting market prices toward 'No Prison Time'.
Harvey Weinstein's rape retrial ends in mistrial on Jessica Mann charge
No Prison Time rises to 9%3%
The jury failed to reach a unanimous verdict on the rape charge involving Jessica Mann, leading Judge Curtis Farber to declare a mistrial. This outcome introduced uncertainty about further prosecution and potential prison time.
Mistrial declared in Harvey Weinstein's New York rape retrial due to deadlocked jury
No Prison Time rises to 9%2%
The jury failed to reach a unanimous verdict on the rape charge involving Jessica Mann, leading the judge to declare a mistrial. This increased uncertainty about a prison sentence from this retrial, pushing market prices toward "No Prison Time."
Harvey Weinstein rape retrial ends in mistrial after jury deadlock
The mistrial confirmed the New York rape charge remained unresolved after three trials, reinforcing the 'No Prison Time' outcome.
Harvey Weinstein convicted of sexually assaulting Miriam Haley but acquitted on another charge
5-10 years jumps to 15%8%
The jury found Weinstein guilty of sexually assaulting Miriam Haley but acquitted him of assaulting Kaja Sokola. The jury could not reach a verdict on the rape charge involving Jessica Mann, leading to mixed market reactions with some increase in conviction probabilities.
Harvey Weinstein's Rape Retrial Ends in Mistrial on Jessica Mann Charge
No Prison Time plunges to 25%25%
The jury deadlocked on the rape charge involving Jessica Mann, leading Judge Curtis Farber to declare a mistrial. This outcome increased market expectations for "No Prison Time" from the New York retrial due to unresolved charges and ongoing legal uncertainty.
Judge Declares Mistrial on Jessica Mann Rape Charge After Jury Foreman Reports Intimidation
No Prison Time rises to 17%3%
The judge declared a mistrial on the remaining third-degree rape charge involving Jessica Mann after the jury foreman refused to continue, alleging bullying by other jurors.
Weinstein convicted of sexual assault but mistrial declared on rape charge in New York retrial
No Prison Time dips to 4%3%
In the 2025 retrial, Weinstein was convicted of forcing oral sex on Miriam Haley but acquitted on another charge. The jury deadlocked on the rape charge involving Jessica Mann, leading to a mistrial. This mixed verdict caused market uncertainty and volatility, with some increase in probabilities for moderate prison terms but also for no prison time on the unresolved charge.
Harvey Weinstein convicted of sexual assault but jury deadlocks on rape charge
No Prison Time plunges to 35%15%
In June 2025, Weinstein was convicted of sexually assaulting Miriam Haley but the jury failed to reach a verdict on the rape charge involving Jessica Mann, resulting in a mistrial on that count. This mixed verdict influenced market prices by reducing confidence in long prison sentences for the Mann charge.
Harvey Weinstein Convicted of Sexually Abusing Miriam Haley but Jury Deadlocks on Rape Charge
No Prison Time surges to 41%27%
Weinstein was found guilty of a first-degree criminal sexual act against Miriam Haley, but the jury deadlocked on the third-degree rape charge involving Jessica Mann, leading to a partial verdict and a mistrial on that count.
Harvey Weinstein Convicted of Sexual Assault in New York Retrial; Jury Deadlocks on Rape Charge
5-10 years plunges to 15%35%
Weinstein was convicted of sexually assaulting Miriam Haley but acquitted of assaulting Kaja Sokola. The jury could not reach a verdict on the rape charge involving Jessica Mann, leading to a mistrial on that count. This mixed verdict affected market probabilities, increasing chances of some prison time but uncertainty remained.
Weinstein convicted on one count and acquitted on another in New York retrial; mistrial declared on rape charge
In the 2025 New York retrial, Weinstein was convicted of a criminal sexual act and acquitted on another charge, but the jury deadlocked on the rape charge involving Jessica Mann, leading to a mistrial. This mixed verdict created uncertainty in the market about his final prison sentence from the New York case.
Harvey Weinstein Convicted of Criminal Sexual Act in New York Retrial Mixed Verdict
10-20 years drops to 26%7%
A Manhattan jury found Weinstein guilty of a criminal sexual act against Miriam Haley but acquitted him of assaulting Kaja Sokola, while deadlocking on the rape charge involving Jessica Mann.
Harvey Weinstein convicted of sexually assaulting Miriam Haley but acquitted of assaulting Kaja Sokola
<5 years surges to 35%29%
The jury found Weinstein guilty of sexually assaulting Haley but acquitted him on the charge involving Sokola. The jury deadlocked on the rape charge involving Jessica Mann, leading to ongoing uncertainty about sentencing and prison time.
Harvey Weinstein convicted of sexually assaulting Miriam Haley but acquitted of assaulting Kaja Sokola
The jury found Weinstein guilty of one count of criminal sexual act but acquitted him on another, with no verdict on the third-degree rape charge involving Jessica Mann. This partial verdict created uncertainty, impacting market prices for different prison time outcomes.
Harvey Weinstein convicted of sexually abusing Miriam Haley but acquitted of assaulting Kaja Sokola
5-10 years jumps to 13%11%
The jury found Weinstein guilty of sexually assaulting Miriam Haley but acquitted him on the charge involving Kaja Sokola, with no verdict reached on the rape charge involving Jessica Mann. This partial verdict caused market shifts reflecting mixed expectations for prison time.
Harvey Weinstein's rape retrial ends in mistrial after jury deadlock
A majority-male jury could not reach a unanimous decision on the rape charge, resulting in a mistrial and leaving the New York conviction in limbo.
Harvey Weinstein replaces legal team ahead of New York retrial
Weinstein hired new attorneys, including lawyers associated with Sean 'Diddy' Combs, signaling a strategic shift in his defense as the retrial approached, which influenced market perceptions of trial outcomes.
Harvey Weinstein’s New York rape retrial ends in a mistrial
No Prison Time drops to 7%7%
Weinstein appeared in court for jury deliberations, but the jury dead‑locked on the third‑degree rape charge, leading to a mistrial. The lack of a conviction drove the market sharply toward “No Prison Time.”
Harvey Weinstein replaces legal team as New York retrial looms
Weinstein hired new attorneys, including lawyers associated with Sean 'Diddy' Combs, signaling a strategic shift in his defense ahead of the retrial. This change influenced market perceptions of his defense strength and trial outcome probabilities.
Harvey Weinstein Convicted of Sexual Assault but Jury Deadlocks on Rape Charge
<5 years dips to 6%1%
Weinstein was convicted of sexually assaulting Miriam Haley but acquitted on another charge and the jury could not reach a verdict on the rape charge involving Jessica Mann, leading to a partial verdict and ongoing uncertainty about sentencing.
Harvey Weinstein replaces legal team ahead of New York retrial
Weinstein hired new attorneys, including lawyers associated with Sean 'Diddy' Combs, signaling a strategic shift in his defense approach. This change affected market perceptions of his trial prospects and potential sentencing.
Harvey Weinstein replaces legal team ahead of New York retrial
Weinstein hired new attorneys, including lawyers associated with Sean 'Diddy' Combs, signaling a strategic shift in his defense as the retrial approached. This change influenced market perceptions of his defense strength and trial outcome probabilities.
Harvey Weinstein's New York retrial begins with opening statements and new accuser
The retrial started with prosecutors presenting their case and a new accuser testifying, renewing focus on Weinstein's alleged sexual crimes. This event marked the formal restart of the legal process after his 2020 conviction was overturned, impacting market expectations about potential prison time.
Harvey Weinstein's New York retrial begins with opening statements and new accuser
No Prison Time plunges to 14%36%
The retrial started with prosecutors presenting their case and a new accuser, Kaja Sokola, coming forward. This renewed legal challenge increased uncertainty about Weinstein's potential prison sentence, initially lowering the market's confidence in 'No Prison Time'.
Harvey Weinstein New York retrial begins with opening statements
No Prison Time surges to 80%30%
The retrial commenced after the 2020 conviction was overturned, with prosecutors presenting their case and the defense making initial arguments, increasing uncertainty about a prison sentence.
Harvey Weinstein’s New York retrial begins with opening statements
No Prison Time plunges to 14%36%
Weinstein’s New York retrial opened with opening statements, marking the first hearing since his 2020 conviction was overturned. The start of the trial created uncertainty about a possible sentence, pushing the market toward the “No Prison Time” outcome.
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