Trader consensus centers on Elon Musk's established posting rhythm, with recent trackers showing averages of roughly 20 tweets per day over the past week, positioning the 40-64 outcome as the clear leader for the three-day window. This range aligns with weekday patterns observed in 2025-2026 data, where daily volume often lands between 15 and 25 posts absent major disruptions. The Starship flight test scheduled for July 23 and accompanying Starlink missions on July 24 stand out as near-term catalysts that historically prompt heightened commentary and replies from the account. Markets assign lower weight to sub-40 or higher brackets because sustained extremes remain rare without coinciding product launches or political developments, underscoring how real-capital bets aggregate observable habits and calendar events into implied probabilities.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated40-64 51%
<40 31%
65-89 16%
90-114 2.9%
NEW
$34,633 Vol.
NEW
$34,633 Vol.
Jul 25, 2026
<40
31%
40-64
51%
65-89
16%
90-114
3%
115-139
1%
140-164
<1%
165-189
<1%
190-214
<1%
215-239
<1%
240+
<1%
40-64 51%
<40 31%
65-89 16%
90-114 2.9%
NEW
$34,633 Vol.
NEW
$34,633 Vol.
Jul 25, 2026
<40
$4,264 Vol.
31%
40-64
$3,921 Vol.
51%
65-89
$1,900 Vol.
16%
90-114
$5,474 Vol.
3%
115-139
$5,412 Vol.
1%
140-164
$1,347 Vol.
<1%
165-189
$6,238 Vol.
<1%
190-214
$1,856 Vol.
<1%
215-239
$2,336 Vol.
<1%
240+
$1,886 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from July 23 12:00 PM ET to July 25, 2026 12:00 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.poly.havingsomuch.fun. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.Trader consensus centers on Elon Musk's established posting rhythm, with recent trackers showing averages of roughly 20 tweets per day over the past week, positioning the 40-64 outcome as the clear leader for the three-day window. This range aligns with weekday patterns observed in 2025-2026 data, where daily volume often lands between 15 and 25 posts absent major disruptions. The Starship flight test scheduled for July 23 and accompanying Starlink missions on July 24 stand out as near-term catalysts that historically prompt heightened commentary and replies from the account. Markets assign lower weight to sub-40 or higher brackets because sustained extremes remain rare without coinciding product launches or political developments, underscoring how real-capital bets aggregate observable habits and calendar events into implied probabilities.
This market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from July 23 12:00 PM ET to July 25, 2026 12:00 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.poly.havingsomuch.fun. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.poly.havingsomuch.fun. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
Market Opened: Jul 20, 2026, 12:07 PM ET
Volume
$34,633End Date
Jul 25, 2026Market Opened
Jul 20, 2026, 12:07 PM ETResolution Source
https://x.com/elonmuskResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from July 23 12:00 PM ET to July 25, 2026 12:00 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.poly.havingsomuch.fun. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.Trader consensus centers on Elon Musk's established posting rhythm, with recent trackers showing averages of roughly 20 tweets per day over the past week, positioning the 40-64 outcome as the clear leader for the three-day window. This range aligns with weekday patterns observed in 2025-2026 data, where daily volume often lands between 15 and 25 posts absent major disruptions. The Starship flight test scheduled for July 23 and accompanying Starlink missions on July 24 stand out as near-term catalysts that historically prompt heightened commentary and replies from the account. Markets assign lower weight to sub-40 or higher brackets because sustained extremes remain rare without coinciding product launches or political developments, underscoring how real-capital bets aggregate observable habits and calendar events into implied probabilities.
This market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from July 23 12:00 PM ET to July 25, 2026 12:00 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.poly.havingsomuch.fun. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.poly.havingsomuch.fun. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
Volume
$34,633End Date
Jul 25, 2026Market Opened
Jul 20, 2026, 12:07 PM ETResolution Source
https://x.com/elonmuskResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus centers on Elon Musk's established posting rhythm, with recent trackers showing averages of roughly 20 tweets per day over the past week, positioning the 40-64 outcome as the clear leader for the three-day window. This range aligns with weekday patterns observed in 2025-2026 data, where daily volume often lands between 15 and 25 posts absent major disruptions. The Starship flight test scheduled for July 23 and accompanying Starlink missions on July 24 stand out as near-term catalysts that historically prompt heightened commentary and replies from the account. Markets assign lower weight to sub-40 or higher brackets because sustained extremes remain rare without coinciding product launches or political developments, underscoring how real-capital bets aggregate observable habits and calendar events into implied probabilities.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
Beware of external links.
Beware of external links.
Frequently Asked Questions