The ongoing Senate impeachment trial of Vice President Sara Duterte, which opened on July 6, 2026, after House approval of four articles alleging misuse of confidential funds, unexplained wealth, graft, and threats against President Marcos, has created a closely balanced contest around the two-thirds conviction threshold of 16 votes. Shifting Senate leadership, including the June 2026 election of Sherwin Gatchalian as president following earlier Duterte-allied influence, combined with bloc divisions and procedural challenges upheld or left intact by Supreme Court rulings, has left trader consensus near even on acquittal. Key variables that could shift probabilities include the pace and strength of prosecution evidence versus defense presentations over the extended hearing schedule into 2027, any changes in senator alignments amid ongoing political rivalries between the Marcos and Duterte camps, or developments affecting senator participation.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · ActualizadoWill the Philippine Senate convict Sara Duterte?
Will the Philippine Senate convict Sara Duterte?
51% probabilidad
$12,170 Vol.
$12,170 Vol.
30 dic 2026
51% probabilidad
$12,170 Vol.
$12,170 Vol.
30 dic 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Senate of the Philippines convicts Sara Duterte of any of the articles of impeachment passed by the House of Representatives of the Philippines in May, 2026 by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may resolve early in favor of "No" if the Senate rejects, remands, or otherwise disposes of all of the relevant articles of impeachment without convicting Duterte.
The primary resolution source is the Senate of the Philippines and other official information from the government of the Philippines, however other credible reporting may be used.The ongoing Senate impeachment trial of Vice President Sara Duterte, which opened on July 6, 2026, after House approval of four articles alleging misuse of confidential funds, unexplained wealth, graft, and threats against President Marcos, has created a closely balanced contest around the two-thirds conviction threshold of 16 votes. Shifting Senate leadership, including the June 2026 election of Sherwin Gatchalian as president following earlier Duterte-allied influence, combined with bloc divisions and procedural challenges upheld or left intact by Supreme Court rulings, has left trader consensus near even on acquittal. Key variables that could shift probabilities include the pace and strength of prosecution evidence versus defense presentations over the extended hearing schedule into 2027, any changes in senator alignments amid ongoing political rivalries between the Marcos and Duterte camps, or developments affecting senator participation.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Senate of the Philippines convicts Sara Duterte of any of the articles of impeachment passed by the House of Representatives of the Philippines in May, 2026 by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may resolve early in favor of "No" if the Senate rejects, remands, or otherwise disposes of all of the relevant articles of impeachment without convicting Duterte.
The primary resolution source is the Senate of the Philippines and other official information from the government of the Philippines, however other credible reporting may be used.
This market may resolve early in favor of "No" if the Senate rejects, remands, or otherwise disposes of all of the relevant articles of impeachment without convicting Duterte.
The primary resolution source is the Senate of the Philippines and other official information from the government of the Philippines, however other credible reporting may be used.
Mercado abierto: May 21, 2026, 1:37 PM ET
Volumen
$12,170Fecha de finalización
31 dic 2026Mercado abierto
May 21, 2026, 1:37 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Senate of the Philippines convicts Sara Duterte of any of the articles of impeachment passed by the House of Representatives of the Philippines in May, 2026 by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may resolve early in favor of "No" if the Senate rejects, remands, or otherwise disposes of all of the relevant articles of impeachment without convicting Duterte.
The primary resolution source is the Senate of the Philippines and other official information from the government of the Philippines, however other credible reporting may be used.The ongoing Senate impeachment trial of Vice President Sara Duterte, which opened on July 6, 2026, after House approval of four articles alleging misuse of confidential funds, unexplained wealth, graft, and threats against President Marcos, has created a closely balanced contest around the two-thirds conviction threshold of 16 votes. Shifting Senate leadership, including the June 2026 election of Sherwin Gatchalian as president following earlier Duterte-allied influence, combined with bloc divisions and procedural challenges upheld or left intact by Supreme Court rulings, has left trader consensus near even on acquittal. Key variables that could shift probabilities include the pace and strength of prosecution evidence versus defense presentations over the extended hearing schedule into 2027, any changes in senator alignments amid ongoing political rivalries between the Marcos and Duterte camps, or developments affecting senator participation.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Senate of the Philippines convicts Sara Duterte of any of the articles of impeachment passed by the House of Representatives of the Philippines in May, 2026 by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may resolve early in favor of "No" if the Senate rejects, remands, or otherwise disposes of all of the relevant articles of impeachment without convicting Duterte.
The primary resolution source is the Senate of the Philippines and other official information from the government of the Philippines, however other credible reporting may be used.
This market may resolve early in favor of "No" if the Senate rejects, remands, or otherwise disposes of all of the relevant articles of impeachment without convicting Duterte.
The primary resolution source is the Senate of the Philippines and other official information from the government of the Philippines, however other credible reporting may be used.
Volumen
$12,170Fecha de finalización
31 dic 2026Mercado abierto
May 21, 2026, 1:37 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...The ongoing Senate impeachment trial of Vice President Sara Duterte, which opened on July 6, 2026, after House approval of four articles alleging misuse of confidential funds, unexplained wealth, graft, and threats against President Marcos, has created a closely balanced contest around the two-thirds conviction threshold of 16 votes. Shifting Senate leadership, including the June 2026 election of Sherwin Gatchalian as president following earlier Duterte-allied influence, combined with bloc divisions and procedural challenges upheld or left intact by Supreme Court rulings, has left trader consensus near even on acquittal. Key variables that could shift probabilities include the pace and strength of prosecution evidence versus defense presentations over the extended hearing schedule into 2027, any changes in senator alignments amid ongoing political rivalries between the Marcos and Duterte camps, or developments affecting senator participation.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
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