The stability of the current nine-member Supreme Court bench, with no announced retirements or reported health developments prompting departures, drives trader consensus toward no vacancy in 2026 at 65.5% implied probability. All justices remain active, including the oldest members Clarence Thomas and Samuel Alito, without public indications of strategic timing tied to Senate control, presidential transitions, or other political factors. Historical patterns show vacancies often align with electoral cycles or personal circumstances, yet the absence of recent catalysts such as confirmation hearings, medical disclosures, or institutional pressures supports the market's assessment of lower likelihood over the calendar year.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · ActualizadoSí
$18,746 Vol.
$18,746 Vol.
31 dic 2026
Sí
$18,746 Vol.
$18,746 Vol.
31 dic 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if at least one seat on the United States Supreme Court becomes vacant between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source for this market will be official announcements from the U.S. Government. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used. The stability of the current nine-member Supreme Court bench, with no announced retirements or reported health developments prompting departures, drives trader consensus toward no vacancy in 2026 at 65.5% implied probability. All justices remain active, including the oldest members Clarence Thomas and Samuel Alito, without public indications of strategic timing tied to Senate control, presidential transitions, or other political factors. Historical patterns show vacancies often align with electoral cycles or personal circumstances, yet the absence of recent catalysts such as confirmation hearings, medical disclosures, or institutional pressures supports the market's assessment of lower likelihood over the calendar year.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if at least one seat on the United States Supreme Court becomes vacant between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source for this market will be official announcements from the U.S. Government. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official announcements from the U.S. Government. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Mercado abierto: Dec 15, 2025, 7:18 PM ET
Volumen
$18,746Fecha de finalización
31 dic 2026Mercado abierto
Dec 15, 2025, 7:18 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if at least one seat on the United States Supreme Court becomes vacant between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source for this market will be official announcements from the U.S. Government. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used. The stability of the current nine-member Supreme Court bench, with no announced retirements or reported health developments prompting departures, drives trader consensus toward no vacancy in 2026 at 65.5% implied probability. All justices remain active, including the oldest members Clarence Thomas and Samuel Alito, without public indications of strategic timing tied to Senate control, presidential transitions, or other political factors. Historical patterns show vacancies often align with electoral cycles or personal circumstances, yet the absence of recent catalysts such as confirmation hearings, medical disclosures, or institutional pressures supports the market's assessment of lower likelihood over the calendar year.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if at least one seat on the United States Supreme Court becomes vacant between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source for this market will be official announcements from the U.S. Government. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official announcements from the U.S. Government. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volumen
$18,746Fecha de finalización
31 dic 2026Mercado abierto
Dec 15, 2025, 7:18 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...The stability of the current nine-member Supreme Court bench, with no announced retirements or reported health developments prompting departures, drives trader consensus toward no vacancy in 2026 at 65.5% implied probability. All justices remain active, including the oldest members Clarence Thomas and Samuel Alito, without public indications of strategic timing tied to Senate control, presidential transitions, or other political factors. Historical patterns show vacancies often align with electoral cycles or personal circumstances, yet the absence of recent catalysts such as confirmation hearings, medical disclosures, or institutional pressures supports the market's assessment of lower likelihood over the calendar year.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
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