Recent US Drought Monitor data valid September 8 shows 1.5% of the contiguous US in D4 exceptional drought amid ongoing flash drought degradations in the South-Central region and heat-driven expansions along the northern Plains border. A strengthening El Niño, with greater than 90% odds of a very strong event this fall, typically shifts the jet stream to favor drier conditions across the northern tier while delivering relief farther south, creating uncertainty over whether D4 persists or contracts in key states before the mid-September map. Mixed short-term precipitation forecasts and soil moisture trends will determine if the number of affected states stays low or edges higher on resolution.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado¿Cuántos estados estarán en D4 (sequía excepcional) — semana del 15 de septiembre de 2026?
¿Cuántos estados estarán en D4 (sequía excepcional) — semana del 15 de septiembre de 2026?
1-2 estados 50%
3-4 estados 50%
5-6 estados 50%
7-9 estados 50%
NUEVO
NUEVO
17 sep 2026
0 estados
25%
1-2 estados
50%
3-4 estados
50%
5-6 estados
50%
7-9 estados
50%
10 o más estados
50%
1-2 estados 50%
3-4 estados 50%
5-6 estados 50%
7-9 estados 50%
NUEVO
NUEVO
17 sep 2026
0 estados
$8 Vol.
25%
1-2 estados
$0 Vol.
50%
3-4 estados
$0 Vol.
50%
5-6 estados
$0 Vol.
50%
7-9 estados
$0 Vol.
50%
10 o más estados
$0 Vol.
50%
This market will resolve to the bracket containing the number of coterminous US states (out of 48) with D4 percent area of 0.05% or more in the US Drought Monitor release for the week of September 15, 2026.
Brackets: 0 / 1-2 / 3-4 / 5-6 / 7-9 / 10+. Exactly one bracket resolves "Yes".
The count ranges over all 48 coterminous states — the 48 states excluding Alaska and Hawaii. The District of Columbia and U.S. territories are not considered.
Each USDM release covers the seven-day period ending Tuesday at 8:00 AM ET and is published the following Thursday.
Resolution is based on the first published US Drought Monitor release for the listed week. Subsequent revisions will not be considered; the first published release is final.
If the US Drought Monitor has not been published by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the scheduled publication date, this market will resolve to the "0 states" bracket.
The resolution source for this market is the US Drought Monitor at droughtmonitor.unl.edu.Recent US Drought Monitor data valid September 8 shows 1.5% of the contiguous US in D4 exceptional drought amid ongoing flash drought degradations in the South-Central region and heat-driven expansions along the northern Plains border. A strengthening El Niño, with greater than 90% odds of a very strong event this fall, typically shifts the jet stream to favor drier conditions across the northern tier while delivering relief farther south, creating uncertainty over whether D4 persists or contracts in key states before the mid-September map. Mixed short-term precipitation forecasts and soil moisture trends will determine if the number of affected states stays low or edges higher on resolution.
This market will resolve to the bracket containing the number of coterminous US states (out of 48) with D4 percent area of 0.05% or more in the US Drought Monitor release for the week of September 15, 2026.
Brackets: 0 / 1-2 / 3-4 / 5-6 / 7-9 / 10+. Exactly one bracket resolves "Yes".
The count ranges over all 48 coterminous states — the 48 states excluding Alaska and Hawaii. The District of Columbia and U.S. territories are not considered.
Each USDM release covers the seven-day period ending Tuesday at 8:00 AM ET and is published the following Thursday.
Resolution is based on the first published US Drought Monitor release for the listed week. Subsequent revisions will not be considered; the first published release is final.
If the US Drought Monitor has not been published by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the scheduled publication date, this market will resolve to the "0 states" bracket.
The resolution source for this market is the US Drought Monitor at droughtmonitor.unl.edu.
Brackets: 0 / 1-2 / 3-4 / 5-6 / 7-9 / 10+. Exactly one bracket resolves "Yes".
The count ranges over all 48 coterminous states — the 48 states excluding Alaska and Hawaii. The District of Columbia and U.S. territories are not considered.
Each USDM release covers the seven-day period ending Tuesday at 8:00 AM ET and is published the following Thursday.
Resolution is based on the first published US Drought Monitor release for the listed week. Subsequent revisions will not be considered; the first published release is final.
If the US Drought Monitor has not been published by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the scheduled publication date, this market will resolve to the "0 states" bracket.
The resolution source for this market is the US Drought Monitor at droughtmonitor.unl.edu.
Mercado abierto: Sep 10, 2026, 9:00 AM ET
Volumen
$8Fecha de finalización
17 sep 2026Mercado abierto
Sep 10, 2026, 9:00 AM ETFuente de resolución
https://droughtmonitor.unl.edu/DmData/DataTables.aspxResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the bracket containing the number of coterminous US states (out of 48) with D4 percent area of 0.05% or more in the US Drought Monitor release for the week of September 15, 2026.
Brackets: 0 / 1-2 / 3-4 / 5-6 / 7-9 / 10+. Exactly one bracket resolves "Yes".
The count ranges over all 48 coterminous states — the 48 states excluding Alaska and Hawaii. The District of Columbia and U.S. territories are not considered.
Each USDM release covers the seven-day period ending Tuesday at 8:00 AM ET and is published the following Thursday.
Resolution is based on the first published US Drought Monitor release for the listed week. Subsequent revisions will not be considered; the first published release is final.
If the US Drought Monitor has not been published by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the scheduled publication date, this market will resolve to the "0 states" bracket.
The resolution source for this market is the US Drought Monitor at droughtmonitor.unl.edu.Recent US Drought Monitor data valid September 8 shows 1.5% of the contiguous US in D4 exceptional drought amid ongoing flash drought degradations in the South-Central region and heat-driven expansions along the northern Plains border. A strengthening El Niño, with greater than 90% odds of a very strong event this fall, typically shifts the jet stream to favor drier conditions across the northern tier while delivering relief farther south, creating uncertainty over whether D4 persists or contracts in key states before the mid-September map. Mixed short-term precipitation forecasts and soil moisture trends will determine if the number of affected states stays low or edges higher on resolution.
This market will resolve to the bracket containing the number of coterminous US states (out of 48) with D4 percent area of 0.05% or more in the US Drought Monitor release for the week of September 15, 2026.
Brackets: 0 / 1-2 / 3-4 / 5-6 / 7-9 / 10+. Exactly one bracket resolves "Yes".
The count ranges over all 48 coterminous states — the 48 states excluding Alaska and Hawaii. The District of Columbia and U.S. territories are not considered.
Each USDM release covers the seven-day period ending Tuesday at 8:00 AM ET and is published the following Thursday.
Resolution is based on the first published US Drought Monitor release for the listed week. Subsequent revisions will not be considered; the first published release is final.
If the US Drought Monitor has not been published by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the scheduled publication date, this market will resolve to the "0 states" bracket.
The resolution source for this market is the US Drought Monitor at droughtmonitor.unl.edu.
Brackets: 0 / 1-2 / 3-4 / 5-6 / 7-9 / 10+. Exactly one bracket resolves "Yes".
The count ranges over all 48 coterminous states — the 48 states excluding Alaska and Hawaii. The District of Columbia and U.S. territories are not considered.
Each USDM release covers the seven-day period ending Tuesday at 8:00 AM ET and is published the following Thursday.
Resolution is based on the first published US Drought Monitor release for the listed week. Subsequent revisions will not be considered; the first published release is final.
If the US Drought Monitor has not been published by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the scheduled publication date, this market will resolve to the "0 states" bracket.
The resolution source for this market is the US Drought Monitor at droughtmonitor.unl.edu.
Volumen
$8Fecha de finalización
17 sep 2026Mercado abierto
Sep 10, 2026, 9:00 AM ETFuente de resolución
https://droughtmonitor.unl.edu/DmData/DataTables.aspxResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent US Drought Monitor data valid September 8 shows 1.5% of the contiguous US in D4 exceptional drought amid ongoing flash drought degradations in the South-Central region and heat-driven expansions along the northern Plains border. A strengthening El Niño, with greater than 90% odds of a very strong event this fall, typically shifts the jet stream to favor drier conditions across the northern tier while delivering relief farther south, creating uncertainty over whether D4 persists or contracts in key states before the mid-September map. Mixed short-term precipitation forecasts and soil moisture trends will determine if the number of affected states stays low or edges higher on resolution.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
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