The 50-50 market on whether the ungraded price of the Ascended Heroes Pikachu ex Special Illustration Rare clears $1,059.87 by September 30 reflects a tug-of-war between recent downward corrections in Japanese Pikachu singles and anticipation around the September 16 release of the 30th-anniversary Pikachu ex “FUR” promo. Trader sentiment is balanced because multiple flagship Japanese Pikachu cards have already fallen nearly 50% over the past month amid broader cooling, yet the new promo’s exclusive artwork and limited distribution could spark short-term collector demand that spills over to premium English illustrations. The next decisive catalysts are post-release sales data from Pokémon Center Japan, any immediate secondary-market pricing for the FUR variant, and whether broader promo hype lifts or further pressures existing high-end Pikachu ex inventory before month-end.