OPEC maintains active operations through 2026 with regular ministerial meetings, production adjustments by core members including Saudi Arabia, Russia, Iraq, Kuwait, and others, and the release of its World Oil Outlook projecting long-term demand. The UAE's withdrawal in May 2026 reduced membership to 11 countries but prompted no broader exits or structural breakdown, as the group continues coordinating output cuts and market stabilization efforts. Traders assign a 95.5% implied probability against dissolution by year-end due to this ongoing institutional cohesion and historical resilience. Even with near-certain consensus, major escalations in conflicts involving key producers or coordinated withdrawals exceeding half the remaining members could theoretically trigger resolution to Yes, though no such developments have materialized in recent months.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado¿La OPEP se disuelve en 2026?
¿La OPEP se disuelve en 2026?
Sí
5% probabilidad
$32,435 Vol.
$32,435 Vol.
30 dic 2026
Sí
5% probabilidad
$32,435 Vol.
$32,435 Vol.
30 dic 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) dissolves by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
OPEC will be considered dissolved if any of the following conditions are met:
- More than half of the OPEC member states, as of market creation and excluding the United Arab Emirates, officially withdraw from OPEC.
- An official agreement amongst the OPEC member states is adopted which dissolves, disbands, terminates, or otherwise formally ends OPEC.
- OPEC otherwise ceases to exist as an intergovernmental organization or legal entity.
An OPEC member state will be considered to have withdrawn once it officially announces its withdrawal from OPEC, or otherwise formally initiates withdrawal under applicable OPEC procedure, regardless of whether the withdrawal takes effect after this market’s timeframe. Withdrawals from OPEC+ will not alone be considered withdrawals from OPEC.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OPEC and OPEC member states; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
OPEC maintains active operations through 2026 with regular ministerial meetings, production adjustments by core members including Saudi Arabia, Russia, Iraq, Kuwait, and others, and the release of its World Oil Outlook projecting long-term demand. The UAE's withdrawal in May 2026 reduced membership to 11 countries but prompted no broader exits or structural breakdown, as the group continues coordinating output cuts and market stabilization efforts. Traders assign a 95.5% implied probability against dissolution by year-end due to this ongoing institutional cohesion and historical resilience. Even with near-certain consensus, major escalations in conflicts involving key producers or coordinated withdrawals exceeding half the remaining members could theoretically trigger resolution to Yes, though no such developments have materialized in recent months.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) dissolves by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
OPEC will be considered dissolved if any of the following conditions are met:
- More than half of the OPEC member states, as of market creation and excluding the United Arab Emirates, officially withdraw from OPEC.
- An official agreement amongst the OPEC member states is adopted which dissolves, disbands, terminates, or otherwise formally ends OPEC.
- OPEC otherwise ceases to exist as an intergovernmental organization or legal entity.
An OPEC member state will be considered to have withdrawn once it officially announces its withdrawal from OPEC, or otherwise formally initiates withdrawal under applicable OPEC procedure, regardless of whether the withdrawal takes effect after this market’s timeframe. Withdrawals from OPEC+ will not alone be considered withdrawals from OPEC.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OPEC and OPEC member states; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
OPEC will be considered dissolved if any of the following conditions are met:
- More than half of the OPEC member states, as of market creation and excluding the United Arab Emirates, officially withdraw from OPEC.
- An official agreement amongst the OPEC member states is adopted which dissolves, disbands, terminates, or otherwise formally ends OPEC.
- OPEC otherwise ceases to exist as an intergovernmental organization or legal entity.
An OPEC member state will be considered to have withdrawn once it officially announces its withdrawal from OPEC, or otherwise formally initiates withdrawal under applicable OPEC procedure, regardless of whether the withdrawal takes effect after this market’s timeframe. Withdrawals from OPEC+ will not alone be considered withdrawals from OPEC.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OPEC and OPEC member states; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Mercado abierto: Apr 28, 2026, 1:35 PM ET
Volumen
$32,435Fecha de finalización
31 dic 2026Mercado abierto
Apr 28, 2026, 1:35 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) dissolves by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
OPEC will be considered dissolved if any of the following conditions are met:
- More than half of the OPEC member states, as of market creation and excluding the United Arab Emirates, officially withdraw from OPEC.
- An official agreement amongst the OPEC member states is adopted which dissolves, disbands, terminates, or otherwise formally ends OPEC.
- OPEC otherwise ceases to exist as an intergovernmental organization or legal entity.
An OPEC member state will be considered to have withdrawn once it officially announces its withdrawal from OPEC, or otherwise formally initiates withdrawal under applicable OPEC procedure, regardless of whether the withdrawal takes effect after this market’s timeframe. Withdrawals from OPEC+ will not alone be considered withdrawals from OPEC.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OPEC and OPEC member states; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
OPEC maintains active operations through 2026 with regular ministerial meetings, production adjustments by core members including Saudi Arabia, Russia, Iraq, Kuwait, and others, and the release of its World Oil Outlook projecting long-term demand. The UAE's withdrawal in May 2026 reduced membership to 11 countries but prompted no broader exits or structural breakdown, as the group continues coordinating output cuts and market stabilization efforts. Traders assign a 95.5% implied probability against dissolution by year-end due to this ongoing institutional cohesion and historical resilience. Even with near-certain consensus, major escalations in conflicts involving key producers or coordinated withdrawals exceeding half the remaining members could theoretically trigger resolution to Yes, though no such developments have materialized in recent months.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) dissolves by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
OPEC will be considered dissolved if any of the following conditions are met:
- More than half of the OPEC member states, as of market creation and excluding the United Arab Emirates, officially withdraw from OPEC.
- An official agreement amongst the OPEC member states is adopted which dissolves, disbands, terminates, or otherwise formally ends OPEC.
- OPEC otherwise ceases to exist as an intergovernmental organization or legal entity.
An OPEC member state will be considered to have withdrawn once it officially announces its withdrawal from OPEC, or otherwise formally initiates withdrawal under applicable OPEC procedure, regardless of whether the withdrawal takes effect after this market’s timeframe. Withdrawals from OPEC+ will not alone be considered withdrawals from OPEC.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OPEC and OPEC member states; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
OPEC will be considered dissolved if any of the following conditions are met:
- More than half of the OPEC member states, as of market creation and excluding the United Arab Emirates, officially withdraw from OPEC.
- An official agreement amongst the OPEC member states is adopted which dissolves, disbands, terminates, or otherwise formally ends OPEC.
- OPEC otherwise ceases to exist as an intergovernmental organization or legal entity.
An OPEC member state will be considered to have withdrawn once it officially announces its withdrawal from OPEC, or otherwise formally initiates withdrawal under applicable OPEC procedure, regardless of whether the withdrawal takes effect after this market’s timeframe. Withdrawals from OPEC+ will not alone be considered withdrawals from OPEC.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OPEC and OPEC member states; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volumen
$32,435Fecha de finalización
31 dic 2026Mercado abierto
Apr 28, 2026, 1:35 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...OPEC maintains active operations through 2026 with regular ministerial meetings, production adjustments by core members including Saudi Arabia, Russia, Iraq, Kuwait, and others, and the release of its World Oil Outlook projecting long-term demand. The UAE's withdrawal in May 2026 reduced membership to 11 countries but prompted no broader exits or structural breakdown, as the group continues coordinating output cuts and market stabilization efforts. Traders assign a 95.5% implied probability against dissolution by year-end due to this ongoing institutional cohesion and historical resilience. Even with near-certain consensus, major escalations in conflicts involving key producers or coordinated withdrawals exceeding half the remaining members could theoretically trigger resolution to Yes, though no such developments have materialized in recent months.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
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