Ongoing deadlock within the Peace Implementation Council Steering Board continues to drive trader sentiment toward “No HR in 2026” at 80 percent. Christian Schmidt’s May 2026 resignation and the subsequent appointment of Louis J. Crishock as acting High Representative have not produced a permanent successor, despite multiple Steering Board sessions. US and EU member states remain divided over preferred candidates, including René Troccaz, Antonio Zanardi Landi, and Peter Sørensen, blocking the required consensus. With no agreement reached by late July and consultations still unresolved, markets assign the lowest probabilities to named individuals while reflecting the procedural reality that the PIC must overcome entrenched diplomatic differences before any appointment can occur in the remaining months of the year.