Trader consensus heavily favors no magnitude 8.0 or greater earthquake worldwide by June 30 due to the inherent rarity of such events on short timescales. USGS data show M8+ quakes occur only a handful of times per decade globally, with no reliable short-term prediction capability and no current elevated alerts or foreshock sequences indicating imminent rupture on major subduction zones. Recent seismic activity, including the April 2026 Japan M7.7 event, produced only modestly higher aftershock probabilities without shifting baseline odds meaningfully. Historical patterns confirm that megathrust or strike-slip failures capable of reaching M8 thresholds require specific stress accumulation over years, not days or weeks, leaving the remaining 22-day window with low likelihood absent sudden, unexpected model shifts in real-time monitoring.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado¿Megaquake para el 30 de junio?
¿Megaquake para el 30 de junio?
Sí
$76,573 Vol.
$76,573 Vol.
30 jun 2026
Sí
$76,573 Vol.
$76,573 Vol.
30 jun 2026
A "megaquake" is defined as an earthquake with a magnitude of 8.0 or greater.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if 1 or more earthquakes with a magnitude of 8.0 or higher occur anywhere on Earth between market creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until the end of the seventh day after the resolution time, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.Trader consensus heavily favors no magnitude 8.0 or greater earthquake worldwide by June 30 due to the inherent rarity of such events on short timescales. USGS data show M8+ quakes occur only a handful of times per decade globally, with no reliable short-term prediction capability and no current elevated alerts or foreshock sequences indicating imminent rupture on major subduction zones. Recent seismic activity, including the April 2026 Japan M7.7 event, produced only modestly higher aftershock probabilities without shifting baseline odds meaningfully. Historical patterns confirm that megathrust or strike-slip failures capable of reaching M8 thresholds require specific stress accumulation over years, not days or weeks, leaving the remaining 22-day window with low likelihood absent sudden, unexpected model shifts in real-time monitoring.
A "megaquake" is defined as an earthquake with a magnitude of 8.0 or greater.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if 1 or more earthquakes with a magnitude of 8.0 or higher occur anywhere on Earth between market creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until the end of the seventh day after the resolution time, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if 1 or more earthquakes with a magnitude of 8.0 or higher occur anywhere on Earth between market creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until the end of the seventh day after the resolution time, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
Mercado abierto: Dec 29, 2025, 6:00 PM ET
Volumen
$76,573Fecha de finalización
30 jun 2026Mercado abierto
Dec 29, 2025, 6:00 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...A "megaquake" is defined as an earthquake with a magnitude of 8.0 or greater.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if 1 or more earthquakes with a magnitude of 8.0 or higher occur anywhere on Earth between market creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until the end of the seventh day after the resolution time, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.Trader consensus heavily favors no magnitude 8.0 or greater earthquake worldwide by June 30 due to the inherent rarity of such events on short timescales. USGS data show M8+ quakes occur only a handful of times per decade globally, with no reliable short-term prediction capability and no current elevated alerts or foreshock sequences indicating imminent rupture on major subduction zones. Recent seismic activity, including the April 2026 Japan M7.7 event, produced only modestly higher aftershock probabilities without shifting baseline odds meaningfully. Historical patterns confirm that megathrust or strike-slip failures capable of reaching M8 thresholds require specific stress accumulation over years, not days or weeks, leaving the remaining 22-day window with low likelihood absent sudden, unexpected model shifts in real-time monitoring.
A "megaquake" is defined as an earthquake with a magnitude of 8.0 or greater.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if 1 or more earthquakes with a magnitude of 8.0 or higher occur anywhere on Earth between market creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until the end of the seventh day after the resolution time, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if 1 or more earthquakes with a magnitude of 8.0 or higher occur anywhere on Earth between market creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until the end of the seventh day after the resolution time, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
Volumen
$76,573Fecha de finalización
30 jun 2026Mercado abierto
Dec 29, 2025, 6:00 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus heavily favors no magnitude 8.0 or greater earthquake worldwide by June 30 due to the inherent rarity of such events on short timescales. USGS data show M8+ quakes occur only a handful of times per decade globally, with no reliable short-term prediction capability and no current elevated alerts or foreshock sequences indicating imminent rupture on major subduction zones. Recent seismic activity, including the April 2026 Japan M7.7 event, produced only modestly higher aftershock probabilities without shifting baseline odds meaningfully. Historical patterns confirm that megathrust or strike-slip failures capable of reaching M8 thresholds require specific stress accumulation over years, not days or weeks, leaving the remaining 22-day window with low likelihood absent sudden, unexpected model shifts in real-time monitoring.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
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