Lebanon’s parliamentary elections, originally slated for May 2026, were postponed two years by a parliamentary vote amid escalating Israel-Hezbollah clashes and security instability, shifting focus to 2028 and leaving the field wide open. Trader consensus reflects this uncertainty, with Amal Movement holding the slim lead at 2.2% due to its alliance with Hezbollah, control of the speakership under Nabih Berri, and entrenched Shia representation, while all other listed parties sit near 0.1%. Recent developments—including the U.S.-brokered framework agreement, government moves to restrict Hezbollah’s independent military role, and President Joseph Aoun’s push for state sovereignty—have heightened fragmentation across sectarian lines. Christian blocs such as Lebanese Forces and Kataeb, Druze Progressive Socialist Party, and smaller movements face barriers from confessional seat allocation and post-conflict realignments. Consolidation behind any single outcome would likely require major shifts in coalition negotiations, successful disarmament or reconstruction milestones, or electoral law reforms ahead of the delayed vote.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · ActualizadoGanador de las elecciones parlamentarias del Líbano
Ganador de las elecciones parlamentarias del Líbano
Movimiento Amal (Amal) 2.2%
Fuerzas Libanesas (FL) <1%
Movimiento Patriótico Libre (FPM) <1%
Partido Taqaddom <1%
$668,469 Vol.
$668,469 Vol.
Movimiento Amal (Amal)
2%
Fuerzas Libanesas (FL)
<1%
Movimiento Patriótico Libre (FPM)
<1%
Partido Taqaddom
<1%
Lana – Partido Socialdemócrata (Lana)
<1%
Alianza Watani (Watani)
<1%
Hezbolá (Hezb)
<1%
Partido Kataeb (Kataeb)
<1%
Movimiento Marada (MM)
<1%
Grupo Islámico (IG)
<1%
Partido Baaz Árabe Socialista en Líbano (Baaz)
<1%
Khatt Ahmar
<1%
Partido del Diálogo Nacional (NDP)
<1%
Partido Socialista Progresista (PSP)
<1%
Movimiento de la Independencia (IM)
<1%
Asociación de Proyectos Caritativos Islámicos (ICPA)
<1%
Partido Nacional Liberal (PNL)
<1%
Partido Mada (Mada)
<1%
Movimiento Dignidad (MD)
<1%
ReLebanon
<1%
Federación Revolucionaria Armenia (FRA)
<1%
Partido de la Unión (UP)
<1%
Organización Naserista Popular (PNO)
<1%
Movimiento Amal (Amal) 2.2%
Fuerzas Libanesas (FL) <1%
Movimiento Patriótico Libre (FPM) <1%
Partido Taqaddom <1%
$668,469 Vol.
$668,469 Vol.
Movimiento Amal (Amal)
2%
Fuerzas Libanesas (FL)
<1%
Movimiento Patriótico Libre (FPM)
<1%
Partido Taqaddom
<1%
Lana – Partido Socialdemócrata (Lana)
<1%
Alianza Watani (Watani)
<1%
Hezbolá (Hezb)
<1%
Partido Kataeb (Kataeb)
<1%
Movimiento Marada (MM)
<1%
Grupo Islámico (IG)
<1%
Partido Baaz Árabe Socialista en Líbano (Baaz)
<1%
Khatt Ahmar
<1%
Partido del Diálogo Nacional (NDP)
<1%
Partido Socialista Progresista (PSP)
<1%
Movimiento de la Independencia (IM)
<1%
Asociación de Proyectos Caritativos Islámicos (ICPA)
<1%
Partido Nacional Liberal (PNL)
<1%
Partido Mada (Mada)
<1%
Movimiento Dignidad (MD)
<1%
ReLebanon
<1%
Federación Revolucionaria Armenia (FRA)
<1%
Partido de la Unión (UP)
<1%
Organización Naserista Popular (PNO)
<1%
This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the next Lebanese Parliament.
If the results are not known definitively by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party that received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party in the Lebanese Parliament.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Lebanese Ministry of Interior and Municipalities (interior.gov.lb).
Note: If a listed party contests the election as part of a jointly listed coalition with one or more parties not listed in this market, the market corresponding to the listed party will represent the coalition and will count all seats won by the coalition collectively. If two or more listed parties contest the election as a jointly listed coalition, with or without additional parties not listed in this market, the market corresponding to the party within that coalition that won the most seats in the previous election will represent the coalition and will count all seats won by the coalition collectively. If such a coalition dissolves, each market will again represent its respective party individually.
Mercado abierto: Jan 6, 2026, 4:50 PM ET
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the next Lebanese Parliament.
If the results are not known definitively by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party that received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party in the Lebanese Parliament.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Lebanese Ministry of Interior and Municipalities (interior.gov.lb).
Note: If a listed party contests the election as part of a jointly listed coalition with one or more parties not listed in this market, the market corresponding to the listed party will represent the coalition and will count all seats won by the coalition collectively. If two or more listed parties contest the election as a jointly listed coalition, with or without additional parties not listed in this market, the market corresponding to the party within that coalition that won the most seats in the previous election will represent the coalition and will count all seats won by the coalition collectively. If such a coalition dissolves, each market will again represent its respective party individually.
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...Lebanon’s parliamentary elections, originally slated for May 2026, were postponed two years by a parliamentary vote amid escalating Israel-Hezbollah clashes and security instability, shifting focus to 2028 and leaving the field wide open. Trader consensus reflects this uncertainty, with Amal Movement holding the slim lead at 2.2% due to its alliance with Hezbollah, control of the speakership under Nabih Berri, and entrenched Shia representation, while all other listed parties sit near 0.1%. Recent developments—including the U.S.-brokered framework agreement, government moves to restrict Hezbollah’s independent military role, and President Joseph Aoun’s push for state sovereignty—have heightened fragmentation across sectarian lines. Christian blocs such as Lebanese Forces and Kataeb, Druze Progressive Socialist Party, and smaller movements face barriers from confessional seat allocation and post-conflict realignments. Consolidation behind any single outcome would likely require major shifts in coalition negotiations, successful disarmament or reconstruction milestones, or electoral law reforms ahead of the delayed vote.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
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