Incumbent Democrat Jonathan Jackson faces Republican Christian Maxwell in Illinois’s 1st congressional district, a South Side Chicago and suburban Cook County seat with a longstanding Democratic partisan lean. Primaries concluded in March 2026 with Jackson securing renomination and Maxwell advancing as the GOP nominee, leaving the general election matchup unchanged since then. The district delivered a roughly 32-point Democratic margin in 2024, and forecasters rate it Solid Democratic, yet the spread of margin buckets on the market shows traders assigning comparable probabilities across several Democratic victory ranges while keeping Republican win odds modest. Limited new polling and uncertainty over midterm turnout patterns, especially in urban versus suburban precincts, sustain the tight distribution. Events such as a national partisan wave, unusually high or low Democratic mobilization, or late-cycle developments could widen or narrow the final margin before November 3.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · ActualizadoIL-01 Margen de victoria en las elecciones a la Cámara
IL-01 Margen de victoria en las elecciones a la Cámara
Demócrata 55%+ 24%
Demócrata 45-50% 24%
Demócrata 0-15% 23%
Demócrata 40-45% 23%
NUEVO
NUEVO
3 nov 2026
Demócrata 55%+
24%
Demócrata 50-55%
21%
Demócrata 45-50%
24%
Demócrata 40-45%
23%
Demócrata 35-40%
18%
Demócrata 30-35%
18%
Demócrata 25-30%
19%
Demócrata 15-25%
18%
Demócrata 0-15%
23%
Republican Wins
18%
Demócrata 55%+ 24%
Demócrata 45-50% 24%
Demócrata 0-15% 23%
Demócrata 40-45% 23%
NUEVO
NUEVO
3 nov 2026
Demócrata 55%+
$20 Vol.
24%
Demócrata 50-55%
$20 Vol.
21%
Demócrata 45-50%
$20 Vol.
24%
Demócrata 40-45%
$20 Vol.
23%
Demócrata 35-40%
$20 Vol.
18%
Demócrata 30-35%
$20 Vol.
18%
Demócrata 25-30%
$20 Vol.
19%
Demócrata 15-25%
$20 Vol.
18%
Demócrata 0-15%
$20 Vol.
23%
Republican Wins
$20 Vol.
18%
The 2026 IL-01 House election is currently expected to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election.
The "margin of victory" is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For purposes of this market, candidates nominated by the Democratic & Republican Parties will represent the options for "Democrat" and "Republican," respectively. Independent candidates will not represent options for either party. The candidates may be named in the contract for the convenience of traders. In the event that any named candidate is replaced as the nominee of their respective party prior to election day, the name in the contract will be updated and the market will resolve based on the replacement nominee of the party.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose ballot-listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to "Other." If the listed candidate is represented in this market group as "Republican" or "Democrat" their ballot-listed last name will still be used for tiebreaking.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 IL-01 House election as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Incumbent Democrat Jonathan Jackson faces Republican Christian Maxwell in Illinois’s 1st congressional district, a South Side Chicago and suburban Cook County seat with a longstanding Democratic partisan lean. Primaries concluded in March 2026 with Jackson securing renomination and Maxwell advancing as the GOP nominee, leaving the general election matchup unchanged since then. The district delivered a roughly 32-point Democratic margin in 2024, and forecasters rate it Solid Democratic, yet the spread of margin buckets on the market shows traders assigning comparable probabilities across several Democratic victory ranges while keeping Republican win odds modest. Limited new polling and uncertainty over midterm turnout patterns, especially in urban versus suburban precincts, sustain the tight distribution. Events such as a national partisan wave, unusually high or low Democratic mobilization, or late-cycle developments could widen or narrow the final margin before November 3.
The 2026 IL-01 House election is currently expected to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election.
The "margin of victory" is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For purposes of this market, candidates nominated by the Democratic & Republican Parties will represent the options for "Democrat" and "Republican," respectively. Independent candidates will not represent options for either party. The candidates may be named in the contract for the convenience of traders. In the event that any named candidate is replaced as the nominee of their respective party prior to election day, the name in the contract will be updated and the market will resolve based on the replacement nominee of the party.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose ballot-listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to "Other." If the listed candidate is represented in this market group as "Republican" or "Democrat" their ballot-listed last name will still be used for tiebreaking.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 IL-01 House election as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election.
The "margin of victory" is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For purposes of this market, candidates nominated by the Democratic & Republican Parties will represent the options for "Democrat" and "Republican," respectively. Independent candidates will not represent options for either party. The candidates may be named in the contract for the convenience of traders. In the event that any named candidate is replaced as the nominee of their respective party prior to election day, the name in the contract will be updated and the market will resolve based on the replacement nominee of the party.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose ballot-listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to "Other." If the listed candidate is represented in this market group as "Republican" or "Democrat" their ballot-listed last name will still be used for tiebreaking.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 IL-01 House election as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Mercado abierto: Aug 10, 2026, 10:52 AM ET
Volumen
$200Fecha de finalización
3 nov 2026Mercado abierto
Aug 10, 2026, 10:52 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The 2026 IL-01 House election is currently expected to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election.
The "margin of victory" is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For purposes of this market, candidates nominated by the Democratic & Republican Parties will represent the options for "Democrat" and "Republican," respectively. Independent candidates will not represent options for either party. The candidates may be named in the contract for the convenience of traders. In the event that any named candidate is replaced as the nominee of their respective party prior to election day, the name in the contract will be updated and the market will resolve based on the replacement nominee of the party.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose ballot-listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to "Other." If the listed candidate is represented in this market group as "Republican" or "Democrat" their ballot-listed last name will still be used for tiebreaking.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 IL-01 House election as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Incumbent Democrat Jonathan Jackson faces Republican Christian Maxwell in Illinois’s 1st congressional district, a South Side Chicago and suburban Cook County seat with a longstanding Democratic partisan lean. Primaries concluded in March 2026 with Jackson securing renomination and Maxwell advancing as the GOP nominee, leaving the general election matchup unchanged since then. The district delivered a roughly 32-point Democratic margin in 2024, and forecasters rate it Solid Democratic, yet the spread of margin buckets on the market shows traders assigning comparable probabilities across several Democratic victory ranges while keeping Republican win odds modest. Limited new polling and uncertainty over midterm turnout patterns, especially in urban versus suburban precincts, sustain the tight distribution. Events such as a national partisan wave, unusually high or low Democratic mobilization, or late-cycle developments could widen or narrow the final margin before November 3.
The 2026 IL-01 House election is currently expected to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election.
The "margin of victory" is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For purposes of this market, candidates nominated by the Democratic & Republican Parties will represent the options for "Democrat" and "Republican," respectively. Independent candidates will not represent options for either party. The candidates may be named in the contract for the convenience of traders. In the event that any named candidate is replaced as the nominee of their respective party prior to election day, the name in the contract will be updated and the market will resolve based on the replacement nominee of the party.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose ballot-listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to "Other." If the listed candidate is represented in this market group as "Republican" or "Democrat" their ballot-listed last name will still be used for tiebreaking.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 IL-01 House election as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election.
The "margin of victory" is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For purposes of this market, candidates nominated by the Democratic & Republican Parties will represent the options for "Democrat" and "Republican," respectively. Independent candidates will not represent options for either party. The candidates may be named in the contract for the convenience of traders. In the event that any named candidate is replaced as the nominee of their respective party prior to election day, the name in the contract will be updated and the market will resolve based on the replacement nominee of the party.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose ballot-listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to "Other." If the listed candidate is represented in this market group as "Republican" or "Democrat" their ballot-listed last name will still be used for tiebreaking.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 IL-01 House election as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volumen
$200Fecha de finalización
3 nov 2026Mercado abierto
Aug 10, 2026, 10:52 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Incumbent Democrat Jonathan Jackson faces Republican Christian Maxwell in Illinois’s 1st congressional district, a South Side Chicago and suburban Cook County seat with a longstanding Democratic partisan lean. Primaries concluded in March 2026 with Jackson securing renomination and Maxwell advancing as the GOP nominee, leaving the general election matchup unchanged since then. The district delivered a roughly 32-point Democratic margin in 2024, and forecasters rate it Solid Democratic, yet the spread of margin buckets on the market shows traders assigning comparable probabilities across several Democratic victory ranges while keeping Republican win odds modest. Limited new polling and uncertainty over midterm turnout patterns, especially in urban versus suburban precincts, sustain the tight distribution. Events such as a national partisan wave, unusually high or low Democratic mobilization, or late-cycle developments could widen or narrow the final margin before November 3.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
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Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
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