**Diplomatic negotiations and Iran's post-2025 strike restrictions on IAEA access remain the dominant drivers of sentiment for visits to Isfahan, Fordow, or Natanz.** Following the June 2025 US-Israeli strikes that damaged facilities at these enrichment and conversion sites, Iran suspended full safeguards cooperation, denying inspectors entry to the affected locations and halting updated nuclear material declarations. This created a verified gap in continuity of knowledge that IAEA Director General Rafael Grossi has repeatedly flagged as unresolved. As of mid-2026, inspectors retain limited access only to unaffected sites, while the three primary enrichment complexes stay off-limits. June 2026 statements from Grossi indicated that inspections of enrichment facilities would form part of any interim US-Iran arrangement, yet Iranian officials conditioned such visits on a final comprehensive deal. Ongoing diplomatic timelines, any new bilateral commitments, or Iranian decisions to restore baseline NPT safeguards access therefore represent the key near-term catalysts that could shift probabilities for an IAEA visit before specific deadlines.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado¿El OIEA visita el sitio nuclear de Isfahan, Fordow o Natanz por...?
¿El OIEA visita el sitio nuclear de Isfahan, Fordow o Natanz por...?
$352,934 Vol.
31 ago 2026
31 de agosto
1%
31 de octubre
6%
31 de diciembre
22%
$352,934 Vol.
31 de agosto
$54,227 Vol.
1%
31 de octubre
$79,331 Vol.
6%
31 de diciembre
$26,052 Vol.
22%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if one or more International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) officials physically visit the Isfahan Nuclear Technology Center, Fordow Fuel Enrichment Plant, or Natanz Nuclear Facility in Iran between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
Pickaxe Mountain is not considered part of the Natanz Nuclear Facility.
IAEA officials refers to individuals acting in an official capacity on behalf of the IAEA, including IAEA inspectors, staff, and the Director General.
A qualifying visit must include physical presence within the recognized boundaries of one of the listed sites. Visits to other sites in Iran, or virtual inspections of the sites, will not qualify.
The resolution sources for this market will be the IAEA and a consensus of credible reporting.**Diplomatic negotiations and Iran's post-2025 strike restrictions on IAEA access remain the dominant drivers of sentiment for visits to Isfahan, Fordow, or Natanz.**
Following the June 2025 US-Israeli strikes that damaged facilities at these enrichment and conversion sites, Iran suspended full safeguards cooperation, denying inspectors entry to the affected locations and halting updated nuclear material declarations. This created a verified gap in continuity of knowledge that IAEA Director General Rafael Grossi has repeatedly flagged as unresolved.
As of mid-2026, inspectors retain limited access only to unaffected sites, while the three primary enrichment complexes stay off-limits. June 2026 statements from Grossi indicated that inspections of enrichment facilities would form part of any interim US-Iran arrangement, yet Iranian officials conditioned such visits on a final comprehensive deal.
Ongoing diplomatic timelines, any new bilateral commitments, or Iranian decisions to restore baseline NPT safeguards access therefore represent the key near-term catalysts that could shift probabilities for an IAEA visit before specific deadlines.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if one or more International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) officials physically visit the Isfahan Nuclear Technology Center, Fordow Fuel Enrichment Plant, or Natanz Nuclear Facility in Iran between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
Pickaxe Mountain is not considered part of the Natanz Nuclear Facility.
IAEA officials refers to individuals acting in an official capacity on behalf of the IAEA, including IAEA inspectors, staff, and the Director General.
A qualifying visit must include physical presence within the recognized boundaries of one of the listed sites. Visits to other sites in Iran, or virtual inspections of the sites, will not qualify.
The resolution sources for this market will be the IAEA and a consensus of credible reporting.
Pickaxe Mountain is not considered part of the Natanz Nuclear Facility.
IAEA officials refers to individuals acting in an official capacity on behalf of the IAEA, including IAEA inspectors, staff, and the Director General.
A qualifying visit must include physical presence within the recognized boundaries of one of the listed sites. Visits to other sites in Iran, or virtual inspections of the sites, will not qualify.
The resolution sources for this market will be the IAEA and a consensus of credible reporting.
Mercado abierto: Jul 8, 2026, 8:34 PM ET
Volumen
$352,934Fecha de finalización
31 dic 2026Mercado abierto
Jul 8, 2026, 8:34 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if one or more International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) officials physically visit the Isfahan Nuclear Technology Center, Fordow Fuel Enrichment Plant, or Natanz Nuclear Facility in Iran between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
Pickaxe Mountain is not considered part of the Natanz Nuclear Facility.
IAEA officials refers to individuals acting in an official capacity on behalf of the IAEA, including IAEA inspectors, staff, and the Director General.
A qualifying visit must include physical presence within the recognized boundaries of one of the listed sites. Visits to other sites in Iran, or virtual inspections of the sites, will not qualify.
The resolution sources for this market will be the IAEA and a consensus of credible reporting.**Diplomatic negotiations and Iran's post-2025 strike restrictions on IAEA access remain the dominant drivers of sentiment for visits to Isfahan, Fordow, or Natanz.**
Following the June 2025 US-Israeli strikes that damaged facilities at these enrichment and conversion sites, Iran suspended full safeguards cooperation, denying inspectors entry to the affected locations and halting updated nuclear material declarations. This created a verified gap in continuity of knowledge that IAEA Director General Rafael Grossi has repeatedly flagged as unresolved.
As of mid-2026, inspectors retain limited access only to unaffected sites, while the three primary enrichment complexes stay off-limits. June 2026 statements from Grossi indicated that inspections of enrichment facilities would form part of any interim US-Iran arrangement, yet Iranian officials conditioned such visits on a final comprehensive deal.
Ongoing diplomatic timelines, any new bilateral commitments, or Iranian decisions to restore baseline NPT safeguards access therefore represent the key near-term catalysts that could shift probabilities for an IAEA visit before specific deadlines.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if one or more International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) officials physically visit the Isfahan Nuclear Technology Center, Fordow Fuel Enrichment Plant, or Natanz Nuclear Facility in Iran between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
Pickaxe Mountain is not considered part of the Natanz Nuclear Facility.
IAEA officials refers to individuals acting in an official capacity on behalf of the IAEA, including IAEA inspectors, staff, and the Director General.
A qualifying visit must include physical presence within the recognized boundaries of one of the listed sites. Visits to other sites in Iran, or virtual inspections of the sites, will not qualify.
The resolution sources for this market will be the IAEA and a consensus of credible reporting.
Pickaxe Mountain is not considered part of the Natanz Nuclear Facility.
IAEA officials refers to individuals acting in an official capacity on behalf of the IAEA, including IAEA inspectors, staff, and the Director General.
A qualifying visit must include physical presence within the recognized boundaries of one of the listed sites. Visits to other sites in Iran, or virtual inspections of the sites, will not qualify.
The resolution sources for this market will be the IAEA and a consensus of credible reporting.
Volumen
$352,934Fecha de finalización
31 dic 2026Mercado abierto
Jul 8, 2026, 8:34 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...**Diplomatic negotiations and Iran's post-2025 strike restrictions on IAEA access remain the dominant drivers of sentiment for visits to Isfahan, Fordow, or Natanz.** Following the June 2025 US-Israeli strikes that damaged facilities at these enrichment and conversion sites, Iran suspended full safeguards cooperation, denying inspectors entry to the affected locations and halting updated nuclear material declarations. This created a verified gap in continuity of knowledge that IAEA Director General Rafael Grossi has repeatedly flagged as unresolved. As of mid-2026, inspectors retain limited access only to unaffected sites, while the three primary enrichment complexes stay off-limits. June 2026 statements from Grossi indicated that inspections of enrichment facilities would form part of any interim US-Iran arrangement, yet Iranian officials conditioned such visits on a final comprehensive deal. Ongoing diplomatic timelines, any new bilateral commitments, or Iranian decisions to restore baseline NPT safeguards access therefore represent the key near-term catalysts that could shift probabilities for an IAEA visit before specific deadlines.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
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