José Maria Neves leads trader consensus in the Cape Verde presidential election market at 67.5% implied probability, reflecting his status as the PAICV incumbent seeking re-election on November 15, 2026. His party secured a parliamentary majority in the May 2026 legislative vote, gaining seats to hold 37 of 72, which strengthens institutional positioning ahead of the presidential contest. Declared MpD challengers such as Janine Lélis and Joana Rosa trail at lower odds around 10.5% and below, consistent with the opposition's recent legislative setback. Market pricing also assigns single-digit probabilities to other listed contenders, underscoring limited shifts in the three months remaining before voting. No major late-breaking developments have altered the primary dynamic of incumbency advantage tied to recent legislative results.