Recent polling averages place the national generic ballot environment at a Democratic lead of roughly 5 to 8 points, reflecting the typical midterm penalty for the president's party amid low approval ratings and voter concerns over the economy and foreign policy developments. This backdrop has positioned Democratic popular-vote margins of 6-10 points as the leading market outcomes, with traders assigning the highest probabilities to those buckets. Redistricting adjustments and campaign spending patterns have also factored into assessments of how national sentiment translates to seat outcomes, though the popular vote itself remains the direct focus. Scheduled events such as upcoming debates and final campaign pushes could still shift the environment before November.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado2026 Parciales: Margen de victoria del voto popular de la Cámara
2026 Parciales: Margen de victoria del voto popular de la Cámara
Demócratas 8-10% 28%
Demócratas 6-8% 22%
Demócratas 10-12% 20%
Demócratas 4-6% 11%
$133,598 Vol.
$133,598 Vol.
2 nov 2026
Demócratas 16%+
1%
Demócratas 14-16%
2%
Demócratas 12-14%
7%
Demócratas 10-12%
20%
Demócratas 8-10%
28%
Demócratas 6-8%
22%
Demócratas 4-6%
11%
Demócratas 2-4%
7%
Demócratas 0-2%
2%
Republicanos 0-2%
3%
Republicanos 2-4%
3%
Republicanos 4-6%
1%
Republicanos 6%+
1%
Demócratas 8-10% 28%
Demócratas 6-8% 22%
Demócratas 10-12% 20%
Demócratas 4-6% 11%
$133,598 Vol.
$133,598 Vol.
2 nov 2026
Demócratas 16%+
$3,556 Vol.
1%
Demócratas 14-16%
$3,412 Vol.
2%
Demócratas 12-14%
$4,597 Vol.
7%
Demócratas 10-12%
$8,975 Vol.
20%
Demócratas 8-10%
$14,498 Vol.
28%
Demócratas 6-8%
$15,599 Vol.
22%
Demócratas 4-6%
$7,010 Vol.
11%
Demócratas 2-4%
$15,636 Vol.
7%
Demócratas 0-2%
$16,265 Vol.
2%
Republicanos 0-2%
$5,931 Vol.
3%
Republicanos 2-4%
$30,409 Vol.
3%
Republicanos 4-6%
$3,748 Vol.
1%
Republicanos 6%+
$3,962 Vol.
1%
This market will resolve according to the popular vote margin of victory between the Democratic Party and the Republican Party in the US House of Representatives midterm elections, scheduled for November 3, 2026.
For the purpose of this market, the “popular vote margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentage of valid votes cast for all Democratic Party House candidates and the percentage of valid votes cast for all Republican Party House candidates in this election. The percentage of the valid votes cast for each party’s House candidates will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes that party’s House candidates receive by the sum of all valid votes cast for U.S. House candidates in the election. Only votes cast for candidates for U.S. Representative (voting members of the House of Representatives from districts in the 50 states) will be considered; votes for Delegates and the Resident Commissioner will not be considered.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the vote totals as published by the US Clerk of the House. Any recount included in the Clerk of the House’s publication will be considered.
If the US House of Representatives midterm elections do not take place by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be the 2026 midterm election results published by the US Clerk of the House (https://history.house.gov/Institution/Election-Statistics/). If the 2026 midterm elections take place, and the Clerk of the House does not publish the results of this election by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source may be chosen.Recent polling averages place the national generic ballot environment at a Democratic lead of roughly 5 to 8 points, reflecting the typical midterm penalty for the president's party amid low approval ratings and voter concerns over the economy and foreign policy developments. This backdrop has positioned Democratic popular-vote margins of 6-10 points as the leading market outcomes, with traders assigning the highest probabilities to those buckets. Redistricting adjustments and campaign spending patterns have also factored into assessments of how national sentiment translates to seat outcomes, though the popular vote itself remains the direct focus. Scheduled events such as upcoming debates and final campaign pushes could still shift the environment before November.
This market will resolve according to the popular vote margin of victory between the Democratic Party and the Republican Party in the US House of Representatives midterm elections, scheduled for November 3, 2026.
For the purpose of this market, the “popular vote margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentage of valid votes cast for all Democratic Party House candidates and the percentage of valid votes cast for all Republican Party House candidates in this election. The percentage of the valid votes cast for each party’s House candidates will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes that party’s House candidates receive by the sum of all valid votes cast for U.S. House candidates in the election. Only votes cast for candidates for U.S. Representative (voting members of the House of Representatives from districts in the 50 states) will be considered; votes for Delegates and the Resident Commissioner will not be considered.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the vote totals as published by the US Clerk of the House. Any recount included in the Clerk of the House’s publication will be considered.
If the US House of Representatives midterm elections do not take place by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be the 2026 midterm election results published by the US Clerk of the House (https://history.house.gov/Institution/Election-Statistics/). If the 2026 midterm elections take place, and the Clerk of the House does not publish the results of this election by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source may be chosen.
For the purpose of this market, the “popular vote margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentage of valid votes cast for all Democratic Party House candidates and the percentage of valid votes cast for all Republican Party House candidates in this election. The percentage of the valid votes cast for each party’s House candidates will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes that party’s House candidates receive by the sum of all valid votes cast for U.S. House candidates in the election. Only votes cast for candidates for U.S. Representative (voting members of the House of Representatives from districts in the 50 states) will be considered; votes for Delegates and the Resident Commissioner will not be considered.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the vote totals as published by the US Clerk of the House. Any recount included in the Clerk of the House’s publication will be considered.
If the US House of Representatives midterm elections do not take place by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be the 2026 midterm election results published by the US Clerk of the House (https://history.house.gov/Institution/Election-Statistics/). If the 2026 midterm elections take place, and the Clerk of the House does not publish the results of this election by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source may be chosen.
Mercado abierto: Feb 18, 2026, 7:24 PM ET
Volumen
$133,598Fecha de finalización
3 nov 2026Mercado abierto
Feb 18, 2026, 7:24 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the popular vote margin of victory between the Democratic Party and the Republican Party in the US House of Representatives midterm elections, scheduled for November 3, 2026.
For the purpose of this market, the “popular vote margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentage of valid votes cast for all Democratic Party House candidates and the percentage of valid votes cast for all Republican Party House candidates in this election. The percentage of the valid votes cast for each party’s House candidates will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes that party’s House candidates receive by the sum of all valid votes cast for U.S. House candidates in the election. Only votes cast for candidates for U.S. Representative (voting members of the House of Representatives from districts in the 50 states) will be considered; votes for Delegates and the Resident Commissioner will not be considered.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the vote totals as published by the US Clerk of the House. Any recount included in the Clerk of the House’s publication will be considered.
If the US House of Representatives midterm elections do not take place by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be the 2026 midterm election results published by the US Clerk of the House (https://history.house.gov/Institution/Election-Statistics/). If the 2026 midterm elections take place, and the Clerk of the House does not publish the results of this election by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source may be chosen.Recent polling averages place the national generic ballot environment at a Democratic lead of roughly 5 to 8 points, reflecting the typical midterm penalty for the president's party amid low approval ratings and voter concerns over the economy and foreign policy developments. This backdrop has positioned Democratic popular-vote margins of 6-10 points as the leading market outcomes, with traders assigning the highest probabilities to those buckets. Redistricting adjustments and campaign spending patterns have also factored into assessments of how national sentiment translates to seat outcomes, though the popular vote itself remains the direct focus. Scheduled events such as upcoming debates and final campaign pushes could still shift the environment before November.
This market will resolve according to the popular vote margin of victory between the Democratic Party and the Republican Party in the US House of Representatives midterm elections, scheduled for November 3, 2026.
For the purpose of this market, the “popular vote margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentage of valid votes cast for all Democratic Party House candidates and the percentage of valid votes cast for all Republican Party House candidates in this election. The percentage of the valid votes cast for each party’s House candidates will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes that party’s House candidates receive by the sum of all valid votes cast for U.S. House candidates in the election. Only votes cast for candidates for U.S. Representative (voting members of the House of Representatives from districts in the 50 states) will be considered; votes for Delegates and the Resident Commissioner will not be considered.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the vote totals as published by the US Clerk of the House. Any recount included in the Clerk of the House’s publication will be considered.
If the US House of Representatives midterm elections do not take place by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be the 2026 midterm election results published by the US Clerk of the House (https://history.house.gov/Institution/Election-Statistics/). If the 2026 midterm elections take place, and the Clerk of the House does not publish the results of this election by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source may be chosen.
For the purpose of this market, the “popular vote margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentage of valid votes cast for all Democratic Party House candidates and the percentage of valid votes cast for all Republican Party House candidates in this election. The percentage of the valid votes cast for each party’s House candidates will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes that party’s House candidates receive by the sum of all valid votes cast for U.S. House candidates in the election. Only votes cast for candidates for U.S. Representative (voting members of the House of Representatives from districts in the 50 states) will be considered; votes for Delegates and the Resident Commissioner will not be considered.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the vote totals as published by the US Clerk of the House. Any recount included in the Clerk of the House’s publication will be considered.
If the US House of Representatives midterm elections do not take place by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be the 2026 midterm election results published by the US Clerk of the House (https://history.house.gov/Institution/Election-Statistics/). If the 2026 midterm elections take place, and the Clerk of the House does not publish the results of this election by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source may be chosen.
Volumen
$133,598Fecha de finalización
3 nov 2026Mercado abierto
Feb 18, 2026, 7:24 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent polling averages place the national generic ballot environment at a Democratic lead of roughly 5 to 8 points, reflecting the typical midterm penalty for the president's party amid low approval ratings and voter concerns over the economy and foreign policy developments. This backdrop has positioned Democratic popular-vote margins of 6-10 points as the leading market outcomes, with traders assigning the highest probabilities to those buckets. Redistricting adjustments and campaign spending patterns have also factored into assessments of how national sentiment translates to seat outcomes, though the popular vote itself remains the direct focus. Scheduled events such as upcoming debates and final campaign pushes could still shift the environment before November.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · ActualizadoRelacionado
¿Habrá entre 125 millones y 130 millones de votos emitidos en las elecciones de mitad de mandato de la Cámara de Representantes de EE.UU. de 2026?
23%
Sí
Will any US Federal or Statewide Midterm Election be within 0.01%?
25%
Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 OR-01 House election by 50%-55%?
29%
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
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