**Ukraine’s ongoing full-scale war with Russia and the associated martial law framework remain the dominant barriers to any leadership change for President Volodymyr Zelenskyy before the end of 2026.** Martial law, first imposed in February 2022 and extended in 90-day increments by parliamentary vote, prohibits presidential and parliamentary elections; the most recent extension runs through at least 31 October 2026. Ukraine’s constitution permits the incumbent to continue exercising presidential powers until a successor is inaugurated, allowing Zelenskyy to remain in office after his original five-year term expired in May 2024. Recent internal pressure, including a public call for wartime elections by ousted Defense Minister Mykhailo Fedorov in mid-August 2026, highlighted domestic frustrations over corruption concerns, personnel decisions, and war fatigue. Zelenskyy rejected the proposal outright, describing elections under current conditions as a “huge risk” and a “tsunami” that would divide the country and benefit Russia. Polling indicates limited public appetite for voting while hostilities continue, with only a small minority favoring an immediate ballot. Ongoing U.S.-mediated diplomatic efforts in early September 2026 and battlefield developments have not altered the legal or security obstacles to a rapid transition. Traders therefore assign high probability to Zelenskyy remaining in office through year-end, reflecting the entrenched wartime legal structure, broad elite and public preference for deferring elections until after martial law ends, and the absence of any imminent mechanism or consensus for removal.