Tom Aspinall holds the strongest trader consensus as the likely UFC heavyweight champion by year-end, reflecting his status as the current undisputed titleholder and recent indications he has recovered from the eye injury that sidelined him after the no-contest against Ciryl Gane at UFC 321 in late 2025. Gane sits second due to his high-level striking, prior near-miss in their aborted title fight, and positioning as the probable next opponent in a scheduled or targeted rematch. The rest of the division trails sharply, as Aspinall’s extended absence has slowed title opportunities while other ranked contenders like Alexander Volkov and Sergei Pavlovich await clearer paths amid stalled matchmaking. Recent mid-2026 updates on Aspinall’s training return and public readiness statements have reinforced his lead, though the division’s uncertainty around interim bouts and potential cross-division moves keeps secondary probabilities in play.