Tom Aspinall holds the edge in the market as the current undisputed UFC heavyweight champion following Jon Jones’ retirement, with his strong finishing rate and prior interim title defenses supporting trader consensus around his 54.5% implied probability. Ciryl Gane’s 33% share reflects his status as interim champion after a second-round TKO of Alex Pereira in June 2026, combined with his technical striking and prior competitive showing against Aspinall. Their planned rematch—potentially in Paris later this year—remains the pivotal upcoming factor, as the outcome will likely determine the division’s trajectory through year-end. Lower-ranked contenders such as Alexander Volkov and Serghei Spivac trail significantly due to recent losses and limited immediate title contention, while Aspinall’s ongoing recovery from eye injuries introduces some uncertainty around his availability and performance.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · AktualisiertTom Aspinall 55%
Ciryl Gane 30%
Alexander Volkov 3.7%
Serghei Spivac <1%
$337,655 Vol.
$337,655 Vol.
Tom Aspinall
55%
Ciryl Gane
33%
Alexander Volkov
4%
Serghei Spivac
1%
Josh Hokit
<1%
Tyrell Fortune
<1%
Rizvan Kuniev
<1%
Curtis Blaydes
<1%
Marcin Tybura
<1%
Sergei Pavlovich
<1%
Jailton Almeida
<1%
Waldo Cortes Acosta
<1%
Ante Delija
<1%
Derrick Lewis
<1%
Tom Aspinall 55%
Ciryl Gane 30%
Alexander Volkov 3.7%
Serghei Spivac <1%
$337,655 Vol.
$337,655 Vol.
Tom Aspinall
55%
Ciryl Gane
33%
Alexander Volkov
4%
Serghei Spivac
1%
Josh Hokit
<1%
Tyrell Fortune
<1%
Rizvan Kuniev
<1%
Curtis Blaydes
<1%
Marcin Tybura
<1%
Sergei Pavlovich
<1%
Jailton Almeida
<1%
Waldo Cortes Acosta
<1%
Ante Delija
<1%
Derrick Lewis
<1%
Only official UFC division champions will count. Interim champions will not count.
If the relevant belt is vacant at this market’s check time, or there is otherwise no champion in the specified division, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the UFC (https://www.ufc.com/athletes).
Markt eröffnet: Jan 4, 2026, 2:33 PM ET
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...Only official UFC division champions will count. Interim champions will not count.
If the relevant belt is vacant at this market’s check time, or there is otherwise no champion in the specified division, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the UFC (https://www.ufc.com/athletes).
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...Tom Aspinall holds the edge in the market as the current undisputed UFC heavyweight champion following Jon Jones’ retirement, with his strong finishing rate and prior interim title defenses supporting trader consensus around his 54.5% implied probability. Ciryl Gane’s 33% share reflects his status as interim champion after a second-round TKO of Alex Pereira in June 2026, combined with his technical striking and prior competitive showing against Aspinall. Their planned rematch—potentially in Paris later this year—remains the pivotal upcoming factor, as the outcome will likely determine the division’s trajectory through year-end. Lower-ranked contenders such as Alexander Volkov and Serghei Spivac trail significantly due to recent losses and limited immediate title contention, while Aspinall’s ongoing recovery from eye injuries introduces some uncertainty around his availability and performance.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · Aktualisiert
Vorsicht bei externen Links.
Vorsicht bei externen Links.
Häufig gestellte Fragen