Aurelien Tchouameni’s recent contract extension with Real Madrid until 2031 has anchored trader sentiment around a stay at the Santiago Bernabeu, reflected in the 96.4% implied probability for that outcome. The French midfielder, a regular starter in central midfield under multiple managers, committed to the project in July amid earlier speculation that a sale could help fund a move for Rodri. Links to Manchester United and other Premier League sides cooled once the long-term deal was confirmed, leaving only marginal probabilities for departures to clubs such as Manchester City, Arsenal, or Paris Saint-Germain. While a dramatic change in circumstances—such as an unprecedented offer or squad overhaul—could theoretically reopen the door before the next transfer window, the fresh terms and established role make any exit highly unlikely in the near term.