U.S. reinstates naval blockade targeting Iranian ports near Strait of Hormuz

↑ $85 surges to 87%31%

The U.S. announced a 20% security charge on cargo transiting the Strait of Hormuz and began enforcing a naval blockade targeting Iranian vessels, escalating tensions and causing WTI crude prices to spike sharply above $85.

President Trump abandons plan for 20% fee on Hormuz cargo, pledges intensified military operations

↑ $85 jumps to 57%9%

President Trump's decision to drop the toll plan on cargo transiting the Strait of Hormuz while pledging intensified military operations against Iran maintained market volatility and supply concerns. This kept WTI prices elevated but volatile, supporting the $85 price outcome near the end of the analysis window.

WTI crude oil technical analysis suggests potential rise toward $91 amid Middle East tensions

↑ $90 jumps to 33%11%

Technical analysis identified an inverted head and shoulders pattern with a breakout target near $91, supported by elevated geopolitical tensions and a US naval blockade on the Strait of Hormuz, fueling supply crunch fears and price gains.

President Trump threatens further strikes on Iran amid resumed U.S. naval blockade

↑ $85 surges to 48%25%

Renewed hostilities and U.S. military actions against Iran raised supply disruption fears, causing a spike in WTI prices and increasing market uncertainty. This event temporarily boosted the probability of the $85 price outcome as geopolitical risk re-emerged.

WTI crude rebounds to $79.56 following US-Iran interim deal and bullish technical signals

↑ $85 rises to 56%3%

Following the announcement of a US-Iran interim deal removing the war premium, WTI crude rebounded to $79.56 supported by bullish technical patterns and a focus on fundamentals such as supply, inventories, and OPEC+ policy.

WTI crude oil price rallies toward $85 amid supply concerns and geopolitical risks

↑ $85 surges to 72%47%

WTI crude oil prices rallied sharply toward $85 as geopolitical tensions remained elevated and supply concerns persisted despite some normalization. Seasonal demand increases and cautious OPEC+ output policies supported the bullish momentum, leading to a significant rise in market confidence for the $85 target.

WTI Crude Oil Hits One-Month High at $85 Amid US-Iran Tensions

Renewed US-Iran strikes and simmering war tensions pushed WTI crude oil prices to a one-month high near $85, reflecting increased supply risk and geopolitical uncertainty.

WTI crude prices jump over 3% on renewed Strait of Hormuz tensions and US economic data

↑ $85 surges to 53%31%

Renewed geopolitical tensions around the Strait of Hormuz and anticipation of US inflation data and Federal Reserve testimony caused WTI crude prices to surge over 3%, reflecting increased supply disruption fears and market uncertainty.

U.S.-Iran Agreement Implementation Lowers Geopolitical Risk Premium

With the U.S.-Iran interim agreement in place and the Strait of Hormuz reopened, Iranian crude returned to markets, removing much of the geopolitical risk premium and keeping WTI prices under pressure below $72.

WTI crude oil remains under pressure below $72 amid Iran supply return

↑ $85 drops to 9%5%

With the U.S.-Iran interim agreement in place and the Strait of Hormuz reopened, Iranian crude returned to the market, increasing supply and keeping WTI prices under pressure below $72 despite ongoing demand concerns.

Iranian crude supply returns, WTI prices pressured below $72

↓ $65 drops to 23%5%

With the U.S.-Iran interim agreement in place and the Strait of Hormuz reopened, Iranian crude returned to the market, increasing supply and pressuring WTI prices below $72. OPEC+ production increases and strong non-OPEC output also contributed to the downward price pressure.

Return of Iranian supply and reopening of Strait of Hormuz keeps WTI under pressure below $72

↑ $85 jumps to 23%9%

Following the U.S.-Iran interim agreement, Iranian crude exports resumed and the Strait of Hormuz reopened, increasing supply and removing much of the geopolitical premium. Combined with OPEC+ production increases and strong U.S. output, this kept WTI prices pressured below $72, reducing probabilities for higher price outcomes.

WTI crude oil rises 2.79% amid recovering demand and refinery activity

↑ $85 jumps to 14%6%

WTI crude oil prices climbed steadily on July 7, supported by strong refinery utilization and demand data, which helped stabilize prices after recent declines. This contributed to a modest recovery in market confidence for the $85 price outcome.

Projectile Hits Tanker in Strait of Hormuz, Renewing Supply Disruption Concerns

↑ $85 jumps to 13%6%

A projectile strike on a tanker in the Strait of Hormuz raised fresh concerns about supply disruptions, causing WTI crude prices to snap a two-day decline and begin to recover from recent lows, reflecting renewed geopolitical risk premiums.

WTI crude consolidates below $72 amid mixed US-Iran messaging and inventory build

↑ $85 rises to 8%1%

WTI crude oil prices stalled below $72 as traders reacted to mixed signals from the US and Iran regarding Middle East tensions, alongside a larger-than-expected build in US crude inventories. This combination kept prices subdued and volatile.

WTI Crude Oil Prices Extend Decline Below $72 on Supply Recovery

↑ $85 dips to 7%2%

By early July, WTI crude prices fell below $72 as the market fully priced in the return of Iranian supply and ongoing production increases from OPEC+ and non-OPEC producers. Despite stable demand growth forecasts, the increased supply and a strong U.S. dollar under restrictive Fed policy pressured prices downward.

Crude oil prices plunge amid optimism for Iran peace talks

↑ $85 plunges to 14%54%

Reports of potential interim peace agreement between the U.S. and Iran and expectations of reopening the Strait of Hormuz led to a sharp decline in WTI prices by over 3%, reflecting reduced geopolitical risk premiums.

Renewed U.S.-Iran attacks escalate Middle East tensions, crude surges

↑ $85 surges to 68%61%

Fresh attacks between U.S. and Iranian forces and projectile strikes on tankers in the Strait of Hormuz renewed supply disruption fears, causing WTI crude prices to surge sharply by nearly 3% to above $90, reversing prior declines.

Projectile attacks on tankers in Strait of Hormuz renew Middle East conflict concerns

↑ $85 rises to 9%3%

Attacks on three tankers in the Strait of Hormuz raised fresh geopolitical tensions, causing a short-term surge in WTI prices due to fears of supply disruption. This event temporarily increased the market's risk premium, supporting higher price outcomes.

Optimism on U.S.-Iran peace deal grows, crude prices slump

↓ $65 drops to 65%14%

Despite fresh U.S. strikes on Iran, optimism about a peace deal that could reopen the Strait of Hormuz led to a sharp decline in crude prices. Investors booked profits from recent spikes, reflecting the market's sensitivity to diplomatic developments.

U.S. President Trump Signals Possible Deal with Iran, Prompting Profit Taking

President Trump's remarks that Iran is seeking a deal with the U.S. raised expectations of an end to the standoff, leading to a sharp drop in crude oil prices as investors booked profits from recent gains.

Renewed U.S.-Iran Strikes Raise Supply Disruption Concerns

Fresh attacks between U.S. and Iranian forces cast doubt on the peace agreement and kept the Strait of Hormuz closed, causing crude oil prices to surge sharply due to renewed supply fears.

Renewed U.S.-Iran attacks escalate Middle East tensions, crude surges

↑ $90 rises to 5%2%

Fresh military strikes between the U.S. and Iran reignited fears of supply disruptions, keeping the Strait of Hormuz closed. This escalation caused WTI crude prices to surge by over 2.5%, reversing recent declines and increasing the geopolitical risk premium in oil markets.

WTI crude settles above $75.99 amid geopolitical uncertainty

↑ $85 rises to 7%2%

WTI crude oil settled above $75.99 on July 2, reflecting ongoing market uncertainty about supply disruptions and demand. The price movement was influenced by mixed signals from geopolitical developments and economic data, with traders cautiously positioning ahead of further news.

WTI Crude Oil Prices Near $67 Amid Market Uncertainty and Technical Downtrend

↑ $85 dips to 7%2%

WTI crude oil traded near $67, reflecting bearish technical trends and market uncertainty about the Middle East conflict's trajectory. Conflicting viewpoints on the peace agreement and potential military escalation contributed to price volatility and bearish sentiment.

OPEC+ announces production increase starting August amid rising global inventories

↓ $65 plunges to 10%31%

OPEC+ decided to raise production targets by 188,000 barrels per day from August, adding to supply amid already rising global inventories and softening demand. This announcement contributed to downward pressure on WTI prices, reinforcing market expectations of surplus conditions.

WTI crude oil prices fall below $70 as Strait of Hormuz reopens at reduced capacity

↑ $85 dips to 7%2%

The reopening of the Strait of Hormuz at about 85% capacity and increased Iranian crude exports led to a significant drop in WTI prices to near $70, reflecting the easing of supply disruption fears and increased global supply availability.

WTI crude oil falls below $70 amid easing US-Iran tensions and reopening of Strait of Hormuz

↑ $85 rises to 52%2%

Progress toward a US-Iran peace deal and the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz sharply eased supply disruption fears that had previously driven WTI prices above $100. This led to a significant price drop to near $70, reflecting expectations of increased supply and reduced geopolitical risk.