Traders assign a 95.5% implied probability against U.S. military draft authorization in 2026 due to the absence of any legislation amending the Military Selective Service Act to permit presidential induction authority, a step required since the all-volunteer force began in 1973. Recent congressional action focused solely on automating Selective Service registration via the fiscal year 2026 National Defense Authorization Act, without advancing conscription measures, amid sustained reliance on volunteer recruitment and bipartisan resistance to compulsory service. Ongoing conflicts have prompted statements keeping options open but produced no vote counts or executive actions toward activation. A major escalation in a theater such as the Middle East or East Asia that demands rapid force expansion beyond volunteer capacity could still prompt Congress to consider authorization before year-end.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · AktualisiertJa
5% Chance
$521,368 Vol.
$521,368 Vol.
30. Dez. 2026
Ja
5% Chance
$521,368 Vol.
$521,368 Vol.
30. Dez. 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any legislation is passed by both houses of the United States Congress and signed into law by the president, or otherwise enacted, which authorizes the induction of personnel into the United States Armed Forces through activation of the United States Selective Service System, or otherwise establishes a military draft, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Legislation that only modifies Selective Service registration requirements or administrative procedures without authorizing induction/conscription into the armed forces will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the United States federal government; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Traders assign a 95.5% implied probability against U.S. military draft authorization in 2026 due to the absence of any legislation amending the Military Selective Service Act to permit presidential induction authority, a step required since the all-volunteer force began in 1973. Recent congressional action focused solely on automating Selective Service registration via the fiscal year 2026 National Defense Authorization Act, without advancing conscription measures, amid sustained reliance on volunteer recruitment and bipartisan resistance to compulsory service. Ongoing conflicts have prompted statements keeping options open but produced no vote counts or executive actions toward activation. A major escalation in a theater such as the Middle East or East Asia that demands rapid force expansion beyond volunteer capacity could still prompt Congress to consider authorization before year-end.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any legislation is passed by both houses of the United States Congress and signed into law by the president, or otherwise enacted, which authorizes the induction of personnel into the United States Armed Forces through activation of the United States Selective Service System, or otherwise establishes a military draft, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Legislation that only modifies Selective Service registration requirements or administrative procedures without authorizing induction/conscription into the armed forces will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the United States federal government; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Legislation that only modifies Selective Service registration requirements or administrative procedures without authorizing induction/conscription into the armed forces will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the United States federal government; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Markt eröffnet: Mar 13, 2026, 1:23 PM ET
Volumen
$521,368Enddatum
31. Dez. 2026Markt eröffnet
Mar 13, 2026, 1:23 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if any legislation is passed by both houses of the United States Congress and signed into law by the president, or otherwise enacted, which authorizes the induction of personnel into the United States Armed Forces through activation of the United States Selective Service System, or otherwise establishes a military draft, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Legislation that only modifies Selective Service registration requirements or administrative procedures without authorizing induction/conscription into the armed forces will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the United States federal government; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Traders assign a 95.5% implied probability against U.S. military draft authorization in 2026 due to the absence of any legislation amending the Military Selective Service Act to permit presidential induction authority, a step required since the all-volunteer force began in 1973. Recent congressional action focused solely on automating Selective Service registration via the fiscal year 2026 National Defense Authorization Act, without advancing conscription measures, amid sustained reliance on volunteer recruitment and bipartisan resistance to compulsory service. Ongoing conflicts have prompted statements keeping options open but produced no vote counts or executive actions toward activation. A major escalation in a theater such as the Middle East or East Asia that demands rapid force expansion beyond volunteer capacity could still prompt Congress to consider authorization before year-end.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any legislation is passed by both houses of the United States Congress and signed into law by the president, or otherwise enacted, which authorizes the induction of personnel into the United States Armed Forces through activation of the United States Selective Service System, or otherwise establishes a military draft, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Legislation that only modifies Selective Service registration requirements or administrative procedures without authorizing induction/conscription into the armed forces will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the United States federal government; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Legislation that only modifies Selective Service registration requirements or administrative procedures without authorizing induction/conscription into the armed forces will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the United States federal government; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volumen
$521,368Enddatum
31. Dez. 2026Markt eröffnet
Mar 13, 2026, 1:23 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Traders assign a 95.5% implied probability against U.S. military draft authorization in 2026 due to the absence of any legislation amending the Military Selective Service Act to permit presidential induction authority, a step required since the all-volunteer force began in 1973. Recent congressional action focused solely on automating Selective Service registration via the fiscal year 2026 National Defense Authorization Act, without advancing conscription measures, amid sustained reliance on volunteer recruitment and bipartisan resistance to compulsory service. Ongoing conflicts have prompted statements keeping options open but produced no vote counts or executive actions toward activation. A major escalation in a theater such as the Middle East or East Asia that demands rapid force expansion beyond volunteer capacity could still prompt Congress to consider authorization before year-end.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · Aktualisiert
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