Recent U.S.-mediated talks between Ukraine and Russia remain stalled on core disputes over territorial control in Donbas and security guarantees, with fresh envoy visits to Moscow and Kyiv only scheduled for mid-to-late September. Russia continues to insist on Ukrainian withdrawal from remaining Donetsk areas and limits on Kyiv’s military posture and alliances, positions Ukraine has rejected as unacceptable without firm external assurances against future aggression. Ongoing airstrikes and battlefield escalation have accompanied the diplomatic pause since earlier 2026 rounds in Abu Dhabi and Geneva produced only limited prisoner exchanges. With negotiations restarting weeks before the October 31 cutoff and no draft framework near completion, traders see little realistic path to a signed comprehensive peace agreement in the remaining window.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · AktualisiertJa
6% Chance
NEU
NEU
31. Okt. 2026
Ja
6% Chance
NEU
NEU
31. Okt. 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Ukraine signs any written instrument (e.g., treaty, ceasefire/armistice, framework/“roadmap,” exchange of letters, or mediated agreement text) that: (i) includes both Ukraine and the Russian Federation as parties, and (ii) either ends hostilities/establishes a ceasefire or commits both sides to a defined process toward ending the war (i.e., stated objective of peace/normalization plus principles, steps, and/or a timetable) by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Only Ukraine’s signature is required; Russia’s signature or ratification is not.
Localized, temporary, or issue-specific arrangements—such as airstrike-limitation or deconfliction protocols, humanitarian pauses, evacuation corridors, prisoner-exchange or trade/export arrangements, border/DMZ adjustments, or ceasefires limited to a particular sector/front/municipality—will not qualify.
The document must bear a wet-ink or officially issued electronic signature of an authorized Ukrainian representative. Unsigned agreements (e.g., the 2023 Ohrid arrangement) will not qualify regardless of if they are otherwise officially enacted.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting. Recent U.S.-mediated talks between Ukraine and Russia remain stalled on core disputes over territorial control in Donbas and security guarantees, with fresh envoy visits to Moscow and Kyiv only scheduled for mid-to-late September. Russia continues to insist on Ukrainian withdrawal from remaining Donetsk areas and limits on Kyiv’s military posture and alliances, positions Ukraine has rejected as unacceptable without firm external assurances against future aggression. Ongoing airstrikes and battlefield escalation have accompanied the diplomatic pause since earlier 2026 rounds in Abu Dhabi and Geneva produced only limited prisoner exchanges. With negotiations restarting weeks before the October 31 cutoff and no draft framework near completion, traders see little realistic path to a signed comprehensive peace agreement in the remaining window.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Ukraine signs any written instrument (e.g., treaty, ceasefire/armistice, framework/“roadmap,” exchange of letters, or mediated agreement text) that: (i) includes both Ukraine and the Russian Federation as parties, and (ii) either ends hostilities/establishes a ceasefire or commits both sides to a defined process toward ending the war (i.e., stated objective of peace/normalization plus principles, steps, and/or a timetable) by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Only Ukraine’s signature is required; Russia’s signature or ratification is not.
Localized, temporary, or issue-specific arrangements—such as airstrike-limitation or deconfliction protocols, humanitarian pauses, evacuation corridors, prisoner-exchange or trade/export arrangements, border/DMZ adjustments, or ceasefires limited to a particular sector/front/municipality—will not qualify.
The document must bear a wet-ink or officially issued electronic signature of an authorized Ukrainian representative. Unsigned agreements (e.g., the 2023 Ohrid arrangement) will not qualify regardless of if they are otherwise officially enacted.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Only Ukraine’s signature is required; Russia’s signature or ratification is not.
Localized, temporary, or issue-specific arrangements—such as airstrike-limitation or deconfliction protocols, humanitarian pauses, evacuation corridors, prisoner-exchange or trade/export arrangements, border/DMZ adjustments, or ceasefires limited to a particular sector/front/municipality—will not qualify.
The document must bear a wet-ink or officially issued electronic signature of an authorized Ukrainian representative. Unsigned agreements (e.g., the 2023 Ohrid arrangement) will not qualify regardless of if they are otherwise officially enacted.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Markt eröffnet: Aug 26, 2026, 5:43 PM ET
Volumen
$8,833Enddatum
1. Nov. 2026Markt eröffnet
Aug 26, 2026, 5:43 PM ETAbwickler
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if Ukraine signs any written instrument (e.g., treaty, ceasefire/armistice, framework/“roadmap,” exchange of letters, or mediated agreement text) that: (i) includes both Ukraine and the Russian Federation as parties, and (ii) either ends hostilities/establishes a ceasefire or commits both sides to a defined process toward ending the war (i.e., stated objective of peace/normalization plus principles, steps, and/or a timetable) by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Only Ukraine’s signature is required; Russia’s signature or ratification is not.
Localized, temporary, or issue-specific arrangements—such as airstrike-limitation or deconfliction protocols, humanitarian pauses, evacuation corridors, prisoner-exchange or trade/export arrangements, border/DMZ adjustments, or ceasefires limited to a particular sector/front/municipality—will not qualify.
The document must bear a wet-ink or officially issued electronic signature of an authorized Ukrainian representative. Unsigned agreements (e.g., the 2023 Ohrid arrangement) will not qualify regardless of if they are otherwise officially enacted.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting. Recent U.S.-mediated talks between Ukraine and Russia remain stalled on core disputes over territorial control in Donbas and security guarantees, with fresh envoy visits to Moscow and Kyiv only scheduled for mid-to-late September. Russia continues to insist on Ukrainian withdrawal from remaining Donetsk areas and limits on Kyiv’s military posture and alliances, positions Ukraine has rejected as unacceptable without firm external assurances against future aggression. Ongoing airstrikes and battlefield escalation have accompanied the diplomatic pause since earlier 2026 rounds in Abu Dhabi and Geneva produced only limited prisoner exchanges. With negotiations restarting weeks before the October 31 cutoff and no draft framework near completion, traders see little realistic path to a signed comprehensive peace agreement in the remaining window.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Ukraine signs any written instrument (e.g., treaty, ceasefire/armistice, framework/“roadmap,” exchange of letters, or mediated agreement text) that: (i) includes both Ukraine and the Russian Federation as parties, and (ii) either ends hostilities/establishes a ceasefire or commits both sides to a defined process toward ending the war (i.e., stated objective of peace/normalization plus principles, steps, and/or a timetable) by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Only Ukraine’s signature is required; Russia’s signature or ratification is not.
Localized, temporary, or issue-specific arrangements—such as airstrike-limitation or deconfliction protocols, humanitarian pauses, evacuation corridors, prisoner-exchange or trade/export arrangements, border/DMZ adjustments, or ceasefires limited to a particular sector/front/municipality—will not qualify.
The document must bear a wet-ink or officially issued electronic signature of an authorized Ukrainian representative. Unsigned agreements (e.g., the 2023 Ohrid arrangement) will not qualify regardless of if they are otherwise officially enacted.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Only Ukraine’s signature is required; Russia’s signature or ratification is not.
Localized, temporary, or issue-specific arrangements—such as airstrike-limitation or deconfliction protocols, humanitarian pauses, evacuation corridors, prisoner-exchange or trade/export arrangements, border/DMZ adjustments, or ceasefires limited to a particular sector/front/municipality—will not qualify.
The document must bear a wet-ink or officially issued electronic signature of an authorized Ukrainian representative. Unsigned agreements (e.g., the 2023 Ohrid arrangement) will not qualify regardless of if they are otherwise officially enacted.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volumen
$8,833Enddatum
1. Nov. 2026Markt eröffnet
Aug 26, 2026, 5:43 PM ETAbwickler
0x65070BE91...Recent U.S.-mediated talks between Ukraine and Russia remain stalled on core disputes over territorial control in Donbas and security guarantees, with fresh envoy visits to Moscow and Kyiv only scheduled for mid-to-late September. Russia continues to insist on Ukrainian withdrawal from remaining Donetsk areas and limits on Kyiv’s military posture and alliances, positions Ukraine has rejected as unacceptable without firm external assurances against future aggression. Ongoing airstrikes and battlefield escalation have accompanied the diplomatic pause since earlier 2026 rounds in Abu Dhabi and Geneva produced only limited prisoner exchanges. With negotiations restarting weeks before the October 31 cutoff and no draft framework near completion, traders see little realistic path to a signed comprehensive peace agreement in the remaining window.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · Aktualisiert
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