US-mediated talks between Ukraine and Russia remain stalled on core disputes, particularly Moscow’s insistence on Ukrainian withdrawal from remaining Donbas territory and formal recognition of Russian control over annexed regions, which Kyiv continues to reject. As of early September 2026, Trump administration envoys arrived in Moscow for renewed discussions, prompting a brief pause in strikes, yet Russian demands on security guarantees, NATO membership, and force reductions show no movement. Prior trilateral rounds earlier in the year produced only prisoner exchanges without progress on political or territorial terms. With roughly eight weeks until the October 31 deadline and no breakthrough in sight, traders price in the low likelihood of a comprehensive peace agreement materializing in that window.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · AktualisiertJa
7% Chance
NEU
NEU
31. Okt. 2026
Ja
7% Chance
NEU
NEU
31. Okt. 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Ukraine signs any written instrument (e.g., treaty, ceasefire/armistice, framework/“roadmap,” exchange of letters, or mediated agreement text) that: (i) includes both Ukraine and the Russian Federation as parties, and (ii) either ends hostilities/establishes a ceasefire or commits both sides to a defined process toward ending the war (i.e., stated objective of peace/normalization plus principles, steps, and/or a timetable) by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Only Ukraine’s signature is required; Russia’s signature or ratification is not.
Localized, temporary, or issue-specific arrangements—such as airstrike-limitation or deconfliction protocols, humanitarian pauses, evacuation corridors, prisoner-exchange or trade/export arrangements, border/DMZ adjustments, or ceasefires limited to a particular sector/front/municipality—will not qualify.
The document must bear a wet-ink or officially issued electronic signature of an authorized Ukrainian representative. Unsigned agreements (e.g., the 2023 Ohrid arrangement) will not qualify regardless of if they are otherwise officially enacted.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting. US-mediated talks between Ukraine and Russia remain stalled on core disputes, particularly Moscow’s insistence on Ukrainian withdrawal from remaining Donbas territory and formal recognition of Russian control over annexed regions, which Kyiv continues to reject. As of early September 2026, Trump administration envoys arrived in Moscow for renewed discussions, prompting a brief pause in strikes, yet Russian demands on security guarantees, NATO membership, and force reductions show no movement. Prior trilateral rounds earlier in the year produced only prisoner exchanges without progress on political or territorial terms. With roughly eight weeks until the October 31 deadline and no breakthrough in sight, traders price in the low likelihood of a comprehensive peace agreement materializing in that window.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Ukraine signs any written instrument (e.g., treaty, ceasefire/armistice, framework/“roadmap,” exchange of letters, or mediated agreement text) that: (i) includes both Ukraine and the Russian Federation as parties, and (ii) either ends hostilities/establishes a ceasefire or commits both sides to a defined process toward ending the war (i.e., stated objective of peace/normalization plus principles, steps, and/or a timetable) by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Only Ukraine’s signature is required; Russia’s signature or ratification is not.
Localized, temporary, or issue-specific arrangements—such as airstrike-limitation or deconfliction protocols, humanitarian pauses, evacuation corridors, prisoner-exchange or trade/export arrangements, border/DMZ adjustments, or ceasefires limited to a particular sector/front/municipality—will not qualify.
The document must bear a wet-ink or officially issued electronic signature of an authorized Ukrainian representative. Unsigned agreements (e.g., the 2023 Ohrid arrangement) will not qualify regardless of if they are otherwise officially enacted.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Only Ukraine’s signature is required; Russia’s signature or ratification is not.
Localized, temporary, or issue-specific arrangements—such as airstrike-limitation or deconfliction protocols, humanitarian pauses, evacuation corridors, prisoner-exchange or trade/export arrangements, border/DMZ adjustments, or ceasefires limited to a particular sector/front/municipality—will not qualify.
The document must bear a wet-ink or officially issued electronic signature of an authorized Ukrainian representative. Unsigned agreements (e.g., the 2023 Ohrid arrangement) will not qualify regardless of if they are otherwise officially enacted.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Markt eröffnet: Aug 26, 2026, 5:43 PM ET
Volumen
$8,833Enddatum
1. Nov. 2026Markt eröffnet
Aug 26, 2026, 5:43 PM ETAbwickler
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if Ukraine signs any written instrument (e.g., treaty, ceasefire/armistice, framework/“roadmap,” exchange of letters, or mediated agreement text) that: (i) includes both Ukraine and the Russian Federation as parties, and (ii) either ends hostilities/establishes a ceasefire or commits both sides to a defined process toward ending the war (i.e., stated objective of peace/normalization plus principles, steps, and/or a timetable) by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Only Ukraine’s signature is required; Russia’s signature or ratification is not.
Localized, temporary, or issue-specific arrangements—such as airstrike-limitation or deconfliction protocols, humanitarian pauses, evacuation corridors, prisoner-exchange or trade/export arrangements, border/DMZ adjustments, or ceasefires limited to a particular sector/front/municipality—will not qualify.
The document must bear a wet-ink or officially issued electronic signature of an authorized Ukrainian representative. Unsigned agreements (e.g., the 2023 Ohrid arrangement) will not qualify regardless of if they are otherwise officially enacted.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting. US-mediated talks between Ukraine and Russia remain stalled on core disputes, particularly Moscow’s insistence on Ukrainian withdrawal from remaining Donbas territory and formal recognition of Russian control over annexed regions, which Kyiv continues to reject. As of early September 2026, Trump administration envoys arrived in Moscow for renewed discussions, prompting a brief pause in strikes, yet Russian demands on security guarantees, NATO membership, and force reductions show no movement. Prior trilateral rounds earlier in the year produced only prisoner exchanges without progress on political or territorial terms. With roughly eight weeks until the October 31 deadline and no breakthrough in sight, traders price in the low likelihood of a comprehensive peace agreement materializing in that window.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Ukraine signs any written instrument (e.g., treaty, ceasefire/armistice, framework/“roadmap,” exchange of letters, or mediated agreement text) that: (i) includes both Ukraine and the Russian Federation as parties, and (ii) either ends hostilities/establishes a ceasefire or commits both sides to a defined process toward ending the war (i.e., stated objective of peace/normalization plus principles, steps, and/or a timetable) by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Only Ukraine’s signature is required; Russia’s signature or ratification is not.
Localized, temporary, or issue-specific arrangements—such as airstrike-limitation or deconfliction protocols, humanitarian pauses, evacuation corridors, prisoner-exchange or trade/export arrangements, border/DMZ adjustments, or ceasefires limited to a particular sector/front/municipality—will not qualify.
The document must bear a wet-ink or officially issued electronic signature of an authorized Ukrainian representative. Unsigned agreements (e.g., the 2023 Ohrid arrangement) will not qualify regardless of if they are otherwise officially enacted.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Only Ukraine’s signature is required; Russia’s signature or ratification is not.
Localized, temporary, or issue-specific arrangements—such as airstrike-limitation or deconfliction protocols, humanitarian pauses, evacuation corridors, prisoner-exchange or trade/export arrangements, border/DMZ adjustments, or ceasefires limited to a particular sector/front/municipality—will not qualify.
The document must bear a wet-ink or officially issued electronic signature of an authorized Ukrainian representative. Unsigned agreements (e.g., the 2023 Ohrid arrangement) will not qualify regardless of if they are otherwise officially enacted.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volumen
$8,833Enddatum
1. Nov. 2026Markt eröffnet
Aug 26, 2026, 5:43 PM ETAbwickler
0x65070BE91...US-mediated talks between Ukraine and Russia remain stalled on core disputes, particularly Moscow’s insistence on Ukrainian withdrawal from remaining Donbas territory and formal recognition of Russian control over annexed regions, which Kyiv continues to reject. As of early September 2026, Trump administration envoys arrived in Moscow for renewed discussions, prompting a brief pause in strikes, yet Russian demands on security guarantees, NATO membership, and force reductions show no movement. Prior trilateral rounds earlier in the year produced only prisoner exchanges without progress on political or territorial terms. With roughly eight weeks until the October 31 deadline and no breakthrough in sight, traders price in the low likelihood of a comprehensive peace agreement materializing in that window.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · Aktualisiert
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