**No at 95% reflects trader expectations that a trilateral Trump-Putin-Zelensky summit is unlikely before the end of 2026.** As of September 2026, U.S. envoys Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner are in Moscow and Kyiv pursuing renewed bilateral talks on ending the Russia-Ukraine war, but these efforts center on envoy-level discussions and separate leader engagements rather than a three-way meeting of principals. Putin has continued to emphasize that Russia and Ukraine should settle matters directly, with longstanding conditions including Ukrainian territorial concessions in Donbas, limits on Ukrainian forces, and no NATO membership—positions Ukraine has rejected. Earlier 2025 attempts by the Trump administration to arrange a Putin-Zelensky bilateral followed by a trilateral session produced no such outcome, and subsequent negotiations stalled. With only a few months remaining before 2027 and no confirmed schedule or breakthrough signaling imminent leader-level convergence, the market pricing aligns with the structural barriers and absence of recent catalysts for a trilateral summit.