**Persistent conflict and structural barriers keep full normalization highly improbable by September 30.** As of late August 2026, commercial traffic through the Strait of Hormuz remains at roughly 4% of pre-crisis levels (around 3–5 transits per day versus 85–130 historically), following Iran’s March closure amid the broader regional conflict. War-risk insurance premiums sit at approximately 40 times normal rates, rendering standard commercial operations uneconomic for most operators and forcing rerouting or “dark” transits with AIS disabled. Iranian enforcement actions, including IRGC turn-back orders and control over northern and southern corridors, combined with ongoing incidents, GPS interference, and a backlog of hundreds of stranded vessels, sustain the elevated risk environment. Recent diplomatic efforts, such as the expired June U.S.-Iran MoU and Iran-Oman route talks, produced only temporary rebounds before hostilities resumed, with no verified path to cleared lanes, reduced premiums, or pre-war traffic volumes in the coming weeks. These dynamics—rooted in unresolved sanctions, military posturing, and insurance market repricing—underpin the strong market-implied odds against normalization.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · AktualisiertJa
11% Chance
$6,270,777 Vol.
$6,270,777 Vol.
29. Sep. 2026
Ja
11% Chance
$6,270,777 Vol.
$6,270,777 Vol.
29. Sep. 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz equal to or above 60 for any date between market creation and September 30, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Daily transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls equal to or above the specified level, or once data has been published for the final date in the specified period and no such value has been published. If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.
Revisions to previously published data points made within this market’s timeframe will be considered. However, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for September 30, 2026, however, will not be considered.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.**Persistent conflict and structural barriers keep full normalization highly improbable by September 30.**
As of late August 2026, commercial traffic through the Strait of Hormuz remains at roughly 4% of pre-crisis levels (around 3–5 transits per day versus 85–130 historically), following Iran’s March closure amid the broader regional conflict. War-risk insurance premiums sit at approximately 40 times normal rates, rendering standard commercial operations uneconomic for most operators and forcing rerouting or “dark” transits with AIS disabled. Iranian enforcement actions, including IRGC turn-back orders and control over northern and southern corridors, combined with ongoing incidents, GPS interference, and a backlog of hundreds of stranded vessels, sustain the elevated risk environment.
Recent diplomatic efforts, such as the expired June U.S.-Iran MoU and Iran-Oman route talks, produced only temporary rebounds before hostilities resumed, with no verified path to cleared lanes, reduced premiums, or pre-war traffic volumes in the coming weeks. These dynamics—rooted in unresolved sanctions, military posturing, and insurance market repricing—underpin the strong market-implied odds against normalization.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz equal to or above 60 for any date between market creation and September 30, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Daily transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls equal to or above the specified level, or once data has been published for the final date in the specified period and no such value has been published. If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.
Revisions to previously published data points made within this market’s timeframe will be considered. However, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for September 30, 2026, however, will not be considered.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
Daily transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls equal to or above the specified level, or once data has been published for the final date in the specified period and no such value has been published. If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.
Revisions to previously published data points made within this market’s timeframe will be considered. However, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for September 30, 2026, however, will not be considered.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
Markt eröffnet: Jul 2, 2026, 4:44 PM ET
Volumen
$6,270,777Enddatum
30. Sep. 2026Markt eröffnet
Jul 2, 2026, 4:44 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz equal to or above 60 for any date between market creation and September 30, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Daily transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls equal to or above the specified level, or once data has been published for the final date in the specified period and no such value has been published. If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.
Revisions to previously published data points made within this market’s timeframe will be considered. However, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for September 30, 2026, however, will not be considered.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.**Persistent conflict and structural barriers keep full normalization highly improbable by September 30.**
As of late August 2026, commercial traffic through the Strait of Hormuz remains at roughly 4% of pre-crisis levels (around 3–5 transits per day versus 85–130 historically), following Iran’s March closure amid the broader regional conflict. War-risk insurance premiums sit at approximately 40 times normal rates, rendering standard commercial operations uneconomic for most operators and forcing rerouting or “dark” transits with AIS disabled. Iranian enforcement actions, including IRGC turn-back orders and control over northern and southern corridors, combined with ongoing incidents, GPS interference, and a backlog of hundreds of stranded vessels, sustain the elevated risk environment.
Recent diplomatic efforts, such as the expired June U.S.-Iran MoU and Iran-Oman route talks, produced only temporary rebounds before hostilities resumed, with no verified path to cleared lanes, reduced premiums, or pre-war traffic volumes in the coming weeks. These dynamics—rooted in unresolved sanctions, military posturing, and insurance market repricing—underpin the strong market-implied odds against normalization.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz equal to or above 60 for any date between market creation and September 30, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Daily transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls equal to or above the specified level, or once data has been published for the final date in the specified period and no such value has been published. If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.
Revisions to previously published data points made within this market’s timeframe will be considered. However, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for September 30, 2026, however, will not be considered.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
Daily transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls equal to or above the specified level, or once data has been published for the final date in the specified period and no such value has been published. If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.
Revisions to previously published data points made within this market’s timeframe will be considered. However, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for September 30, 2026, however, will not be considered.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
Volumen
$6,270,777Enddatum
30. Sep. 2026Markt eröffnet
Jul 2, 2026, 4:44 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...**Persistent conflict and structural barriers keep full normalization highly improbable by September 30.** As of late August 2026, commercial traffic through the Strait of Hormuz remains at roughly 4% of pre-crisis levels (around 3–5 transits per day versus 85–130 historically), following Iran’s March closure amid the broader regional conflict. War-risk insurance premiums sit at approximately 40 times normal rates, rendering standard commercial operations uneconomic for most operators and forcing rerouting or “dark” transits with AIS disabled. Iranian enforcement actions, including IRGC turn-back orders and control over northern and southern corridors, combined with ongoing incidents, GPS interference, and a backlog of hundreds of stranded vessels, sustain the elevated risk environment. Recent diplomatic efforts, such as the expired June U.S.-Iran MoU and Iran-Oman route talks, produced only temporary rebounds before hostilities resumed, with no verified path to cleared lanes, reduced premiums, or pre-war traffic volumes in the coming weeks. These dynamics—rooted in unresolved sanctions, military posturing, and insurance market repricing—underpin the strong market-implied odds against normalization.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · Aktualisiert
Vorsicht bei externen Links.
Vorsicht bei externen Links.
Häufig gestellte Fragen