**"One Night Only,"** a high-concept romantic comedy from Will Gluck (director of the sleeper hit *Anyone But You*), opens widely on August 7, 2026, amid a crowded late-summer marketplace dominated by the second weekend of *Spider-Man: Brand New Day* ($360 million domestic debut). Pre-release tracking from mid-July pegged the opening in the $8–12 million range, but mixed-to-negative early reviews—describing the film as a “sexless sex comedy” and “bizarrely dystopian romcom”—have introduced downside risk just days before release. Trader sentiment reflects this uncertainty. The near-even implied probabilities across the $6–9 million+ brackets signal limited conviction in any single outcome, driven by several offsetting factors: modest genre expectations for R-rated rom-coms in August, the star power of Monica Barbaro and Callum Turner, and the absence of strong advance word-of-mouth or major marketing breakthroughs. Historical performance of similar mid-budget comedies and the film’s dystopian premise further complicate forecasts, leaving room for both modest success on audience curiosity and a softer debut if reviews dampen interest. Upcoming weekend actuals and any last-minute buzz shifts will be the decisive swing factors.