Disney’s live-action Moana opened to a soft $43 million domestically in mid-July, well below pre-release tracking of $60–85 million, and followed with an estimated $18 million in its second frame amid a steep 58% drop. Traders see this rapid erosion—driven by mixed audience reception and a $250 million budget—as signaling further sharp declines for the third weekend, with comparable titles and summer competition likely accelerating the fade. Historical patterns for underperforming Disney remakes and current legs near 2.1 reinforce expectations of limited holdover, though strong family appeal or positive word-of-mouth could moderate the drop and shift the market-implied ranges. Upcoming chart updates and any mid-week adjustments will serve as key swing factors in the tightly contested buckets.