Israel's military has consolidated control over the strategic Ali al-Taher ridge in southern Lebanon through operations that cleared Hezbollah tunnels and infrastructure in recent weeks, following earlier June 2026 ceasefires that have since frayed. These actions respond to Hezbollah drone and rocket attacks on Israeli troops positioned in the self-declared security zone, prompting retaliatory strikes near Nabatieh and other areas as of early September 2026. Diplomatic talks, including Rome negotiations on pilot zones for Lebanese army deployment and Hezbollah disarmament verification, continue amid U.S. involvement, though Israel has signaled preparations for an extended presence until threats are neutralized. Ongoing clashes and enforcement of the security zone remain the dominant drivers of market probabilities for further Israeli military action.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · AktualisiertIsraelische Militäraktion gegen den Libanon am...?
Israelische Militäraktion gegen den Libanon am...?
$304,969 Vol.
6. Sep. 2026
3. September
65%
4. September
97%
5. September
32%
6. September
80%
7. September
67%
8. September
53%
9. September
51%
10. September
51%
11. September
51%
12. September
42%
13. September
50%
14. September
56%
15. September
51%
16. September
73%
17. September
51%
18. September
51%
19. September
45%
20. September
48%
21. September
51%
22. September
50%
23. September
51%
24. September
51%
25. September
49%
26. September
43%
27. September
49%
28. September
50%
29. September
47%
30. September
48%
$304,969 Vol.
3. September
$7,619 Vol.
65%
4. September
$622 Vol.
97%
5. September
$329 Vol.
32%
6. September
$17,479 Vol.
80%
7. September
$10,164 Vol.
67%
8. September
$41,635 Vol.
53%
9. September
$32,438 Vol.
51%
10. September
$13,064 Vol.
51%
11. September
$0 Vol.
51%
12. September
$28,714 Vol.
42%
13. September
$10,674 Vol.
50%
14. September
$33,998 Vol.
56%
15. September
$0 Vol.
51%
16. September
$9,390 Vol.
73%
17. September
$0 Vol.
51%
18. September
$0 Vol.
51%
19. September
$25,307 Vol.
45%
20. September
$8,162 Vol.
48%
21. September
$0 Vol.
51%
22. September
$0 Vol.
50%
23. September
$0 Vol.
51%
24. September
$0 Vol.
51%
25. September
$0 Vol.
49%
26. September
$35,655 Vol.
43%
27. September
$0 Vol.
49%
28. September
$0 Vol.
50%
29. September
$0 Vol.
47%
30. September
$29,720 Vol.
48%
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Israel takes a qualifying military action against Lebanon on the specified date Israel Daylight Time (IDT). Otherwise this market will resolve to “No.”
A qualifying military action refers to an air strike or a surface-to-surface missile strike, initiated by Israel, that directly impacts Lebanon. An air strike includes bombs, air-to-surface missiles, and air-launched drones. A surface-to-surface missile strike includes one-way attack drones and surface-to-surface missiles such as cruise or ballistic missiles.
The following actions do not constitute a qualifying military action:
Munitions destroyed or intercepted before impact;
Surface-to-air missile strikes;
Small-arms fire;
Ground incursions;
Cyber operations;
Naval gunfire and artillery fire;
Howitzers, artillery pieces, mortars, and rocket artillery (e.g. MLRS systems);
Minor surface-to-surface strikes, including short range loitering munitions, FPV drones, and ATGM strikes;
Any threat, authorization, or announcement of force that has not been executed.
Any munition that is intercepted or destroyed before impact does not constitute a qualifying military action. Debris, fragments, or any wreckage from intercepted munitions that land on Lebanon do not constitute a military action regardless of any damage incurred.
“Lebanon” refers to the terrestrial territory of Lebanon, including its internal waters. Lebanon’s maritime territory and airspace are not encompassed. Where territorial borders are disputed, all territory claimed by and under the de facto control of Lebanon as of market creation will qualify.
The occurrence, attribution, and timing of a qualifying military action will be primarily determined based on a consensus of information available from the resolution sources. Where multiple sources conflict regarding the occurrence, attribution, or timing of a relevant military action, this market will remain open until the earlier of: i) the confirmation of the occurrence, attribution, and timing of the action based on a consensus of information available from the resolution sources or ii) 3 full calendar days (IDT) from the date of the first credibly reported evidence of the action. If this period would extend past the end date, this market will remain open to allow for 3 full calendar days to pass. At the end of the third calendar day, if conflicting reports remain, the incident will be adjudicated based on the totality of information available from the resolution sources at that time. No single statement, denial, or presentation of evidence will govern where it is contradicted by the totality of information.
The resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments and militaries of Israel and Lebanon and a consensus of credible reporting.Israel's military has consolidated control over the strategic Ali al-Taher ridge in southern Lebanon through operations that cleared Hezbollah tunnels and infrastructure in recent weeks, following earlier June 2026 ceasefires that have since frayed. These actions respond to Hezbollah drone and rocket attacks on Israeli troops positioned in the self-declared security zone, prompting retaliatory strikes near Nabatieh and other areas as of early September 2026. Diplomatic talks, including Rome negotiations on pilot zones for Lebanese army deployment and Hezbollah disarmament verification, continue amid U.S. involvement, though Israel has signaled preparations for an extended presence until threats are neutralized. Ongoing clashes and enforcement of the security zone remain the dominant drivers of market probabilities for further Israeli military action.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Israel takes a qualifying military action against Lebanon on the specified date Israel Daylight Time (IDT). Otherwise this market will resolve to “No.”
A qualifying military action refers to an air strike or a surface-to-surface missile strike, initiated by Israel, that directly impacts Lebanon. An air strike includes bombs, air-to-surface missiles, and air-launched drones. A surface-to-surface missile strike includes one-way attack drones and surface-to-surface missiles such as cruise or ballistic missiles.
The following actions do not constitute a qualifying military action:
Munitions destroyed or intercepted before impact;
Surface-to-air missile strikes;
Small-arms fire;
Ground incursions;
Cyber operations;
Naval gunfire and artillery fire;
Howitzers, artillery pieces, mortars, and rocket artillery (e.g. MLRS systems);
Minor surface-to-surface strikes, including short range loitering munitions, FPV drones, and ATGM strikes;
Any threat, authorization, or announcement of force that has not been executed.
Any munition that is intercepted or destroyed before impact does not constitute a qualifying military action. Debris, fragments, or any wreckage from intercepted munitions that land on Lebanon do not constitute a military action regardless of any damage incurred.
“Lebanon” refers to the terrestrial territory of Lebanon, including its internal waters. Lebanon’s maritime territory and airspace are not encompassed. Where territorial borders are disputed, all territory claimed by and under the de facto control of Lebanon as of market creation will qualify.
The occurrence, attribution, and timing of a qualifying military action will be primarily determined based on a consensus of information available from the resolution sources. Where multiple sources conflict regarding the occurrence, attribution, or timing of a relevant military action, this market will remain open until the earlier of: i) the confirmation of the occurrence, attribution, and timing of the action based on a consensus of information available from the resolution sources or ii) 3 full calendar days (IDT) from the date of the first credibly reported evidence of the action. If this period would extend past the end date, this market will remain open to allow for 3 full calendar days to pass. At the end of the third calendar day, if conflicting reports remain, the incident will be adjudicated based on the totality of information available from the resolution sources at that time. No single statement, denial, or presentation of evidence will govern where it is contradicted by the totality of information.
The resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments and militaries of Israel and Lebanon and a consensus of credible reporting.
A qualifying military action refers to an air strike or a surface-to-surface missile strike, initiated by Israel, that directly impacts Lebanon. An air strike includes bombs, air-to-surface missiles, and air-launched drones. A surface-to-surface missile strike includes one-way attack drones and surface-to-surface missiles such as cruise or ballistic missiles.
The following actions do not constitute a qualifying military action:
Munitions destroyed or intercepted before impact;
Surface-to-air missile strikes;
Small-arms fire;
Ground incursions;
Cyber operations;
Naval gunfire and artillery fire;
Howitzers, artillery pieces, mortars, and rocket artillery (e.g. MLRS systems);
Minor surface-to-surface strikes, including short range loitering munitions, FPV drones, and ATGM strikes;
Any threat, authorization, or announcement of force that has not been executed.
Any munition that is intercepted or destroyed before impact does not constitute a qualifying military action. Debris, fragments, or any wreckage from intercepted munitions that land on Lebanon do not constitute a military action regardless of any damage incurred.
“Lebanon” refers to the terrestrial territory of Lebanon, including its internal waters. Lebanon’s maritime territory and airspace are not encompassed. Where territorial borders are disputed, all territory claimed by and under the de facto control of Lebanon as of market creation will qualify.
The occurrence, attribution, and timing of a qualifying military action will be primarily determined based on a consensus of information available from the resolution sources. Where multiple sources conflict regarding the occurrence, attribution, or timing of a relevant military action, this market will remain open until the earlier of: i) the confirmation of the occurrence, attribution, and timing of the action based on a consensus of information available from the resolution sources or ii) 3 full calendar days (IDT) from the date of the first credibly reported evidence of the action. If this period would extend past the end date, this market will remain open to allow for 3 full calendar days to pass. At the end of the third calendar day, if conflicting reports remain, the incident will be adjudicated based on the totality of information available from the resolution sources at that time. No single statement, denial, or presentation of evidence will govern where it is contradicted by the totality of information.
The resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments and militaries of Israel and Lebanon and a consensus of credible reporting.
Markt eröffnet: Sep 2, 2026, 8:01 PM ET
Volumen
$304,969Enddatum
1. Okt. 2026Markt eröffnet
Sep 2, 2026, 8:01 PM ETAbwickler
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if Israel takes a qualifying military action against Lebanon on the specified date Israel Daylight Time (IDT). Otherwise this market will resolve to “No.”
A qualifying military action refers to an air strike or a surface-to-surface missile strike, initiated by Israel, that directly impacts Lebanon. An air strike includes bombs, air-to-surface missiles, and air-launched drones. A surface-to-surface missile strike includes one-way attack drones and surface-to-surface missiles such as cruise or ballistic missiles.
The following actions do not constitute a qualifying military action:
Munitions destroyed or intercepted before impact;
Surface-to-air missile strikes;
Small-arms fire;
Ground incursions;
Cyber operations;
Naval gunfire and artillery fire;
Howitzers, artillery pieces, mortars, and rocket artillery (e.g. MLRS systems);
Minor surface-to-surface strikes, including short range loitering munitions, FPV drones, and ATGM strikes;
Any threat, authorization, or announcement of force that has not been executed.
Any munition that is intercepted or destroyed before impact does not constitute a qualifying military action. Debris, fragments, or any wreckage from intercepted munitions that land on Lebanon do not constitute a military action regardless of any damage incurred.
“Lebanon” refers to the terrestrial territory of Lebanon, including its internal waters. Lebanon’s maritime territory and airspace are not encompassed. Where territorial borders are disputed, all territory claimed by and under the de facto control of Lebanon as of market creation will qualify.
The occurrence, attribution, and timing of a qualifying military action will be primarily determined based on a consensus of information available from the resolution sources. Where multiple sources conflict regarding the occurrence, attribution, or timing of a relevant military action, this market will remain open until the earlier of: i) the confirmation of the occurrence, attribution, and timing of the action based on a consensus of information available from the resolution sources or ii) 3 full calendar days (IDT) from the date of the first credibly reported evidence of the action. If this period would extend past the end date, this market will remain open to allow for 3 full calendar days to pass. At the end of the third calendar day, if conflicting reports remain, the incident will be adjudicated based on the totality of information available from the resolution sources at that time. No single statement, denial, or presentation of evidence will govern where it is contradicted by the totality of information.
The resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments and militaries of Israel and Lebanon and a consensus of credible reporting.Israel's military has consolidated control over the strategic Ali al-Taher ridge in southern Lebanon through operations that cleared Hezbollah tunnels and infrastructure in recent weeks, following earlier June 2026 ceasefires that have since frayed. These actions respond to Hezbollah drone and rocket attacks on Israeli troops positioned in the self-declared security zone, prompting retaliatory strikes near Nabatieh and other areas as of early September 2026. Diplomatic talks, including Rome negotiations on pilot zones for Lebanese army deployment and Hezbollah disarmament verification, continue amid U.S. involvement, though Israel has signaled preparations for an extended presence until threats are neutralized. Ongoing clashes and enforcement of the security zone remain the dominant drivers of market probabilities for further Israeli military action.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Israel takes a qualifying military action against Lebanon on the specified date Israel Daylight Time (IDT). Otherwise this market will resolve to “No.”
A qualifying military action refers to an air strike or a surface-to-surface missile strike, initiated by Israel, that directly impacts Lebanon. An air strike includes bombs, air-to-surface missiles, and air-launched drones. A surface-to-surface missile strike includes one-way attack drones and surface-to-surface missiles such as cruise or ballistic missiles.
The following actions do not constitute a qualifying military action:
Munitions destroyed or intercepted before impact;
Surface-to-air missile strikes;
Small-arms fire;
Ground incursions;
Cyber operations;
Naval gunfire and artillery fire;
Howitzers, artillery pieces, mortars, and rocket artillery (e.g. MLRS systems);
Minor surface-to-surface strikes, including short range loitering munitions, FPV drones, and ATGM strikes;
Any threat, authorization, or announcement of force that has not been executed.
Any munition that is intercepted or destroyed before impact does not constitute a qualifying military action. Debris, fragments, or any wreckage from intercepted munitions that land on Lebanon do not constitute a military action regardless of any damage incurred.
“Lebanon” refers to the terrestrial territory of Lebanon, including its internal waters. Lebanon’s maritime territory and airspace are not encompassed. Where territorial borders are disputed, all territory claimed by and under the de facto control of Lebanon as of market creation will qualify.
The occurrence, attribution, and timing of a qualifying military action will be primarily determined based on a consensus of information available from the resolution sources. Where multiple sources conflict regarding the occurrence, attribution, or timing of a relevant military action, this market will remain open until the earlier of: i) the confirmation of the occurrence, attribution, and timing of the action based on a consensus of information available from the resolution sources or ii) 3 full calendar days (IDT) from the date of the first credibly reported evidence of the action. If this period would extend past the end date, this market will remain open to allow for 3 full calendar days to pass. At the end of the third calendar day, if conflicting reports remain, the incident will be adjudicated based on the totality of information available from the resolution sources at that time. No single statement, denial, or presentation of evidence will govern where it is contradicted by the totality of information.
The resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments and militaries of Israel and Lebanon and a consensus of credible reporting.
A qualifying military action refers to an air strike or a surface-to-surface missile strike, initiated by Israel, that directly impacts Lebanon. An air strike includes bombs, air-to-surface missiles, and air-launched drones. A surface-to-surface missile strike includes one-way attack drones and surface-to-surface missiles such as cruise or ballistic missiles.
The following actions do not constitute a qualifying military action:
Munitions destroyed or intercepted before impact;
Surface-to-air missile strikes;
Small-arms fire;
Ground incursions;
Cyber operations;
Naval gunfire and artillery fire;
Howitzers, artillery pieces, mortars, and rocket artillery (e.g. MLRS systems);
Minor surface-to-surface strikes, including short range loitering munitions, FPV drones, and ATGM strikes;
Any threat, authorization, or announcement of force that has not been executed.
Any munition that is intercepted or destroyed before impact does not constitute a qualifying military action. Debris, fragments, or any wreckage from intercepted munitions that land on Lebanon do not constitute a military action regardless of any damage incurred.
“Lebanon” refers to the terrestrial territory of Lebanon, including its internal waters. Lebanon’s maritime territory and airspace are not encompassed. Where territorial borders are disputed, all territory claimed by and under the de facto control of Lebanon as of market creation will qualify.
The occurrence, attribution, and timing of a qualifying military action will be primarily determined based on a consensus of information available from the resolution sources. Where multiple sources conflict regarding the occurrence, attribution, or timing of a relevant military action, this market will remain open until the earlier of: i) the confirmation of the occurrence, attribution, and timing of the action based on a consensus of information available from the resolution sources or ii) 3 full calendar days (IDT) from the date of the first credibly reported evidence of the action. If this period would extend past the end date, this market will remain open to allow for 3 full calendar days to pass. At the end of the third calendar day, if conflicting reports remain, the incident will be adjudicated based on the totality of information available from the resolution sources at that time. No single statement, denial, or presentation of evidence will govern where it is contradicted by the totality of information.
The resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments and militaries of Israel and Lebanon and a consensus of credible reporting.
Volumen
$304,969Enddatum
1. Okt. 2026Markt eröffnet
Sep 2, 2026, 8:01 PM ETAbwickler
0x65070BE91...Israel's military has consolidated control over the strategic Ali al-Taher ridge in southern Lebanon through operations that cleared Hezbollah tunnels and infrastructure in recent weeks, following earlier June 2026 ceasefires that have since frayed. These actions respond to Hezbollah drone and rocket attacks on Israeli troops positioned in the self-declared security zone, prompting retaliatory strikes near Nabatieh and other areas as of early September 2026. Diplomatic talks, including Rome negotiations on pilot zones for Lebanese army deployment and Hezbollah disarmament verification, continue amid U.S. involvement, though Israel has signaled preparations for an extended presence until threats are neutralized. Ongoing clashes and enforcement of the security zone remain the dominant drivers of market probabilities for further Israeli military action.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · Aktualisiert
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