**Iceland’s August 29, 2026 referendum on resuming EU accession negotiations produced a narrow “No” victory of 52.8% to 47.2%, creating a 5.6-point margin that aligns with the market’s dominant 3–6% outcome.** High turnout of 82.5% reflected deep engagement, with rural constituencies delivering decisive opposition driven by fishing-industry concerns over sovereignty and quota control, while urban Reykjavík leaned “Yes.” The centre-left government advanced the vote earlier than planned amid external pressures including U.S. trade measures and Arctic security developments, yet domestic priorities on fisheries and independence prevailed. Late polling shifts toward “No” and final rural tallies locked in the result. Limited remaining uncertainty stems mainly from any official recount or precise rounding conventions that could theoretically alter the exact percentage band, though current certified figures place the outcome firmly inside the leading category.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · AktualisiertNein 3–6 % 95.5%
Ja 9–12 % 8.2%
Nein 9–12 % 7.4%
Ja <3% 6.9%
$16,834 Vol.
$16,834 Vol.
29. Aug. 2026
Ja 15 %+
1%
Ja 12–15 %
1%
Ja 9–12 %
8%
Ja 6–9 %
1%
Ja 3–6 %
1%
Ja <3%
7%
Nein <3%
7%
Nein 3–6 %
95%
Nein 6–9 %
5%
Nein 9–12 %
7%
Nein 12–15 %
4%
Nein 15%+
4%
Nein 3–6 % 95.5%
Ja 9–12 % 8.2%
Nein 9–12 % 7.4%
Ja <3% 6.9%
$16,834 Vol.
$16,834 Vol.
29. Aug. 2026
Ja 15 %+
$827 Vol.
1%
Ja 12–15 %
$323 Vol.
1%
Ja 9–12 %
$2,594 Vol.
8%
Ja 6–9 %
$315 Vol.
1%
Ja 3–6 %
$1,117 Vol.
1%
Ja <3%
$382 Vol.
7%
Nein <3%
$3,391 Vol.
7%
Nein 3–6 %
$1,284 Vol.
95%
Nein 6–9 %
$424 Vol.
5%
Nein 9–12 %
$355 Vol.
7%
Nein 12–15 %
$297 Vol.
4%
Nein 15%+
$5,525 Vol.
4%
The Icelandic European Union membership negotiations referendum is scheduled to be held on August 29, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between "Yes" and "No" in the referendum.
The “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by "Yes" and "No". Percentages will be determined by dividing the number of valid votes each option receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the referendum.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If "Yes" and "No" receive the exact same number of valid votes, this market will resolve to the lowest "No" margin bracket.
This market will resolve based on the results of the vote once the count has been made official. If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
If the referendum is officially rescheduled to a date prior to December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the same rule applies to the new ballot and its corresponding deadlines. If the results of the referendum are not known definitively, or no qualifying referendum vote occurs, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other.”
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the vote as published by the Government of Iceland, including the National Electoral Commission of Iceland (https://island.is/en/o/landskjorstjorn) and Statistics Iceland (https://www.statice.is/statistics/population/elections/); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.**Iceland’s August 29, 2026 referendum on resuming EU accession negotiations produced a narrow “No” victory of 52.8% to 47.2%, creating a 5.6-point margin that aligns with the market’s dominant 3–6% outcome.**
High turnout of 82.5% reflected deep engagement, with rural constituencies delivering decisive opposition driven by fishing-industry concerns over sovereignty and quota control, while urban Reykjavík leaned “Yes.” The centre-left government advanced the vote earlier than planned amid external pressures including U.S. trade measures and Arctic security developments, yet domestic priorities on fisheries and independence prevailed. Late polling shifts toward “No” and final rural tallies locked in the result. Limited remaining uncertainty stems mainly from any official recount or precise rounding conventions that could theoretically alter the exact percentage band, though current certified figures place the outcome firmly inside the leading category.
The Icelandic European Union membership negotiations referendum is scheduled to be held on August 29, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between "Yes" and "No" in the referendum.
The “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by "Yes" and "No". Percentages will be determined by dividing the number of valid votes each option receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the referendum.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If "Yes" and "No" receive the exact same number of valid votes, this market will resolve to the lowest "No" margin bracket.
This market will resolve based on the results of the vote once the count has been made official. If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
If the referendum is officially rescheduled to a date prior to December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the same rule applies to the new ballot and its corresponding deadlines. If the results of the referendum are not known definitively, or no qualifying referendum vote occurs, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other.”
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the vote as published by the Government of Iceland, including the National Electoral Commission of Iceland (https://island.is/en/o/landskjorstjorn) and Statistics Iceland (https://www.statice.is/statistics/population/elections/); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between "Yes" and "No" in the referendum.
The “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by "Yes" and "No". Percentages will be determined by dividing the number of valid votes each option receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the referendum.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If "Yes" and "No" receive the exact same number of valid votes, this market will resolve to the lowest "No" margin bracket.
This market will resolve based on the results of the vote once the count has been made official. If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
If the referendum is officially rescheduled to a date prior to December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the same rule applies to the new ballot and its corresponding deadlines. If the results of the referendum are not known definitively, or no qualifying referendum vote occurs, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other.”
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the vote as published by the Government of Iceland, including the National Electoral Commission of Iceland (https://island.is/en/o/landskjorstjorn) and Statistics Iceland (https://www.statice.is/statistics/population/elections/); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
Markt eröffnet: Aug 27, 2026, 12:19 PM ET
Volumen
$16,834Enddatum
29. Aug. 2026Markt eröffnet
Aug 27, 2026, 12:19 PM ETAbwickler
0x69c47De9D...The Icelandic European Union membership negotiations referendum is scheduled to be held on August 29, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between "Yes" and "No" in the referendum.
The “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by "Yes" and "No". Percentages will be determined by dividing the number of valid votes each option receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the referendum.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If "Yes" and "No" receive the exact same number of valid votes, this market will resolve to the lowest "No" margin bracket.
This market will resolve based on the results of the vote once the count has been made official. If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
If the referendum is officially rescheduled to a date prior to December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the same rule applies to the new ballot and its corresponding deadlines. If the results of the referendum are not known definitively, or no qualifying referendum vote occurs, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other.”
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the vote as published by the Government of Iceland, including the National Electoral Commission of Iceland (https://island.is/en/o/landskjorstjorn) and Statistics Iceland (https://www.statice.is/statistics/population/elections/); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.**Iceland’s August 29, 2026 referendum on resuming EU accession negotiations produced a narrow “No” victory of 52.8% to 47.2%, creating a 5.6-point margin that aligns with the market’s dominant 3–6% outcome.**
High turnout of 82.5% reflected deep engagement, with rural constituencies delivering decisive opposition driven by fishing-industry concerns over sovereignty and quota control, while urban Reykjavík leaned “Yes.” The centre-left government advanced the vote earlier than planned amid external pressures including U.S. trade measures and Arctic security developments, yet domestic priorities on fisheries and independence prevailed. Late polling shifts toward “No” and final rural tallies locked in the result. Limited remaining uncertainty stems mainly from any official recount or precise rounding conventions that could theoretically alter the exact percentage band, though current certified figures place the outcome firmly inside the leading category.
The Icelandic European Union membership negotiations referendum is scheduled to be held on August 29, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between "Yes" and "No" in the referendum.
The “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by "Yes" and "No". Percentages will be determined by dividing the number of valid votes each option receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the referendum.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If "Yes" and "No" receive the exact same number of valid votes, this market will resolve to the lowest "No" margin bracket.
This market will resolve based on the results of the vote once the count has been made official. If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
If the referendum is officially rescheduled to a date prior to December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the same rule applies to the new ballot and its corresponding deadlines. If the results of the referendum are not known definitively, or no qualifying referendum vote occurs, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other.”
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the vote as published by the Government of Iceland, including the National Electoral Commission of Iceland (https://island.is/en/o/landskjorstjorn) and Statistics Iceland (https://www.statice.is/statistics/population/elections/); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between "Yes" and "No" in the referendum.
The “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by "Yes" and "No". Percentages will be determined by dividing the number of valid votes each option receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the referendum.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If "Yes" and "No" receive the exact same number of valid votes, this market will resolve to the lowest "No" margin bracket.
This market will resolve based on the results of the vote once the count has been made official. If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
If the referendum is officially rescheduled to a date prior to December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the same rule applies to the new ballot and its corresponding deadlines. If the results of the referendum are not known definitively, or no qualifying referendum vote occurs, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other.”
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the vote as published by the Government of Iceland, including the National Electoral Commission of Iceland (https://island.is/en/o/landskjorstjorn) and Statistics Iceland (https://www.statice.is/statistics/population/elections/); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
Volumen
$16,834Enddatum
29. Aug. 2026Markt eröffnet
Aug 27, 2026, 12:19 PM ETAbwickler
0x69c47De9D...**Iceland’s August 29, 2026 referendum on resuming EU accession negotiations produced a narrow “No” victory of 52.8% to 47.2%, creating a 5.6-point margin that aligns with the market’s dominant 3–6% outcome.** High turnout of 82.5% reflected deep engagement, with rural constituencies delivering decisive opposition driven by fishing-industry concerns over sovereignty and quota control, while urban Reykjavík leaned “Yes.” The centre-left government advanced the vote earlier than planned amid external pressures including U.S. trade measures and Arctic security developments, yet domestic priorities on fisheries and independence prevailed. Late polling shifts toward “No” and final rural tallies locked in the result. Limited remaining uncertainty stems mainly from any official recount or precise rounding conventions that could theoretically alter the exact percentage band, though current certified figures place the outcome firmly inside the leading category.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · Aktualisiert
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