**Seven Republican Senators have announced they will not seek re-election in 2026, aligning with the market's dominant 77.5% probability on that outcome.** Twenty Republican-held seats are up for election in the Class II cycle, and the seven retirements announced through mid-2026 (including Thom Tillis, Joni Ernst, Steve Daines, Cynthia Lummis, Alan Armstrong, and others such as Mitch McConnell) reflect typical midterm attrition driven by age, primary pressure, and institutional factors. Recent developments include Bill Cassidy's primary defeat in Louisiana, which adds to the count of incumbents not advancing, while filing deadlines and remaining primaries through late 2026 could produce limited additional exits. Trader consensus prices the low likelihood of major further shifts, consistent with historical Senate retirement patterns and the current pace of announcements.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · Aktualisiert7 78%
11 7.8%
9 5.1%
5 3.0%
$101,131 Vol.
$101,131 Vol.
31. Aug. 2026
<5
1%
5
3%
6
1%
7
78%
8
1%
9
5%
10
1%
11
8%
12+
<1%
7 78%
11 7.8%
9 5.1%
5 3.0%
$101,131 Vol.
$101,131 Vol.
31. Aug. 2026
<5
$22,734 Vol.
1%
5
$17,511 Vol.
3%
6
$27,247 Vol.
1%
7
$16,977 Vol.
78%
8
$4,623 Vol.
1%
9
$2,208 Vol.
5%
10
$1,873 Vol.
1%
11
$2,845 Vol.
8%
12+
$5,112 Vol.
<1%
The 2026 U.S. general elections for Congress are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the total number of Republican members of the U.S. Senate who are considered to be retiring or not seeking reelection in 2026.
For the purposes of this market, a member may be considered not to seek reelection if:
• They publicly announce they are retiring from Congress and will not run for reelection to their current seat
• They choose to run for a different elected office in 2026 instead of running for reelection to their current seat
• They do not seek their party’s nomination for reelection to their current seat, meaning they neither file for reelection nor participate in their party’s nominating process (such as a primary, convention, or caucus)
Only members whose current term is scheduled to end with the 2026 regular election for the Senate may qualify for this market.
This market will not resolve until after the relevant final 2026 candidate filing deadline has passed in all states, which is expected to occur in late August 2026.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.**Seven Republican Senators have announced they will not seek re-election in 2026, aligning with the market's dominant 77.5% probability on that outcome.** Twenty Republican-held seats are up for election in the Class II cycle, and the seven retirements announced through mid-2026 (including Thom Tillis, Joni Ernst, Steve Daines, Cynthia Lummis, Alan Armstrong, and others such as Mitch McConnell) reflect typical midterm attrition driven by age, primary pressure, and institutional factors. Recent developments include Bill Cassidy's primary defeat in Louisiana, which adds to the count of incumbents not advancing, while filing deadlines and remaining primaries through late 2026 could produce limited additional exits. Trader consensus prices the low likelihood of major further shifts, consistent with historical Senate retirement patterns and the current pace of announcements.
The 2026 U.S. general elections for Congress are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the total number of Republican members of the U.S. Senate who are considered to be retiring or not seeking reelection in 2026.
For the purposes of this market, a member may be considered not to seek reelection if:
• They publicly announce they are retiring from Congress and will not run for reelection to their current seat
• They choose to run for a different elected office in 2026 instead of running for reelection to their current seat
• They do not seek their party’s nomination for reelection to their current seat, meaning they neither file for reelection nor participate in their party’s nominating process (such as a primary, convention, or caucus)
Only members whose current term is scheduled to end with the 2026 regular election for the Senate may qualify for this market.
This market will not resolve until after the relevant final 2026 candidate filing deadline has passed in all states, which is expected to occur in late August 2026.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This market will resolve according to the total number of Republican members of the U.S. Senate who are considered to be retiring or not seeking reelection in 2026.
For the purposes of this market, a member may be considered not to seek reelection if:
• They publicly announce they are retiring from Congress and will not run for reelection to their current seat
• They choose to run for a different elected office in 2026 instead of running for reelection to their current seat
• They do not seek their party’s nomination for reelection to their current seat, meaning they neither file for reelection nor participate in their party’s nominating process (such as a primary, convention, or caucus)
Only members whose current term is scheduled to end with the 2026 regular election for the Senate may qualify for this market.
This market will not resolve until after the relevant final 2026 candidate filing deadline has passed in all states, which is expected to occur in late August 2026.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Markt eröffnet: Dec 12, 2025, 6:43 PM ET
Volumen
$101,131Enddatum
31. Aug. 2026Markt eröffnet
Dec 12, 2025, 6:43 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...The 2026 U.S. general elections for Congress are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the total number of Republican members of the U.S. Senate who are considered to be retiring or not seeking reelection in 2026.
For the purposes of this market, a member may be considered not to seek reelection if:
• They publicly announce they are retiring from Congress and will not run for reelection to their current seat
• They choose to run for a different elected office in 2026 instead of running for reelection to their current seat
• They do not seek their party’s nomination for reelection to their current seat, meaning they neither file for reelection nor participate in their party’s nominating process (such as a primary, convention, or caucus)
Only members whose current term is scheduled to end with the 2026 regular election for the Senate may qualify for this market.
This market will not resolve until after the relevant final 2026 candidate filing deadline has passed in all states, which is expected to occur in late August 2026.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.**Seven Republican Senators have announced they will not seek re-election in 2026, aligning with the market's dominant 77.5% probability on that outcome.** Twenty Republican-held seats are up for election in the Class II cycle, and the seven retirements announced through mid-2026 (including Thom Tillis, Joni Ernst, Steve Daines, Cynthia Lummis, Alan Armstrong, and others such as Mitch McConnell) reflect typical midterm attrition driven by age, primary pressure, and institutional factors. Recent developments include Bill Cassidy's primary defeat in Louisiana, which adds to the count of incumbents not advancing, while filing deadlines and remaining primaries through late 2026 could produce limited additional exits. Trader consensus prices the low likelihood of major further shifts, consistent with historical Senate retirement patterns and the current pace of announcements.
The 2026 U.S. general elections for Congress are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the total number of Republican members of the U.S. Senate who are considered to be retiring or not seeking reelection in 2026.
For the purposes of this market, a member may be considered not to seek reelection if:
• They publicly announce they are retiring from Congress and will not run for reelection to their current seat
• They choose to run for a different elected office in 2026 instead of running for reelection to their current seat
• They do not seek their party’s nomination for reelection to their current seat, meaning they neither file for reelection nor participate in their party’s nominating process (such as a primary, convention, or caucus)
Only members whose current term is scheduled to end with the 2026 regular election for the Senate may qualify for this market.
This market will not resolve until after the relevant final 2026 candidate filing deadline has passed in all states, which is expected to occur in late August 2026.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This market will resolve according to the total number of Republican members of the U.S. Senate who are considered to be retiring or not seeking reelection in 2026.
For the purposes of this market, a member may be considered not to seek reelection if:
• They publicly announce they are retiring from Congress and will not run for reelection to their current seat
• They choose to run for a different elected office in 2026 instead of running for reelection to their current seat
• They do not seek their party’s nomination for reelection to their current seat, meaning they neither file for reelection nor participate in their party’s nominating process (such as a primary, convention, or caucus)
Only members whose current term is scheduled to end with the 2026 regular election for the Senate may qualify for this market.
This market will not resolve until after the relevant final 2026 candidate filing deadline has passed in all states, which is expected to occur in late August 2026.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volumen
$101,131Enddatum
31. Aug. 2026Markt eröffnet
Dec 12, 2025, 6:43 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...**Seven Republican Senators have announced they will not seek re-election in 2026, aligning with the market's dominant 77.5% probability on that outcome.** Twenty Republican-held seats are up for election in the Class II cycle, and the seven retirements announced through mid-2026 (including Thom Tillis, Joni Ernst, Steve Daines, Cynthia Lummis, Alan Armstrong, and others such as Mitch McConnell) reflect typical midterm attrition driven by age, primary pressure, and institutional factors. Recent developments include Bill Cassidy's primary defeat in Louisiana, which adds to the count of incumbents not advancing, while filing deadlines and remaining primaries through late 2026 could produce limited additional exits. Trader consensus prices the low likelihood of major further shifts, consistent with historical Senate retirement patterns and the current pace of announcements.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · AktualisiertVerwandte
Wird die Zahl der republikanischen Mitglieder des Repräsentantenhauses, die 2026 in den Ruhestand gehen, zwischen 36 und 39 liegen (einschließlich)?
83%
Ja
Wird die Anzahl der demokratischen Mitglieder des Repräsentantenhauses, die 2026 zurücktreten, zwischen 20 und 23 liegen (einschließlich)?
46%
Ja
Werden die amtierenden republikanischen Senatoren bei genau drei Nominierungswahlen im Zyklus 2026 nicht gewinnen?
79%
Ja
Vorsicht bei externen Links.
Vorsicht bei externen Links.
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