Current National Weather Service guidance and ensemble model consensus for Miami on July 29 indicate a high near 92–94°F under a persistent subtropical ridge, with typical July moisture supporting scattered afternoon thunderstorms that often cap peak readings. Sea-breeze convergence and high boundary-layer humidity (dew points in the upper 70s) moderate daytime maxima despite above-normal temperatures, consistent with recent days when Miami reached 94°F. Historical July averages near 90–91°F provide baseline context, while the 44.5% market-implied probability on 94–95°F reflects traders’ assessment that modest model spreads or slight steering changes could push the official observation into that bin. Updated short-range forecasts and any NHC or local mesoscale adjustments through July 28 evening remain the key near-term catalysts.