Elon Musk's typical posting cadence on X, with multiple original tweets and replies logged on August 22 alone, anchors trader expectations for the 40-64 tweet range as the clear favorite at 51.5% implied probability. Recent activity shows steady engagement with SpaceX milestones, political commentary, and platform updates rather than an accelerated or muted pace, supporting moderate volume over the three-day window. The 29.5% probability on fewer than 40 tweets reflects the possibility of a quieter stretch amid competing business demands, while higher bins remain discounted given the absence of catalysts that historically drive spikes. Market-implied odds capture aggregated real-money sentiment on his established habits ahead of the period close.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · Aktualisiert40-64 52%
<40 31%
65-89 17%
90-114 2.5%
$215,318 Vol.
$215,318 Vol.
24. Aug. 2026
<40
31%
40-64
52%
65-89
17%
90-114
2%
115-139
1%
140-164
<1%
165-189
1%
190-214
<1%
215–239
<1%
240+
<1%
40-64 52%
<40 31%
65-89 17%
90-114 2.5%
$215,318 Vol.
$215,318 Vol.
24. Aug. 2026
<40
$30,772 Vol.
31%
40-64
$24,027 Vol.
52%
65-89
$17,905 Vol.
17%
90-114
$29,416 Vol.
2%
115-139
$41,474 Vol.
1%
140-164
$16,522 Vol.
<1%
165-189
$28,187 Vol.
1%
190-214
$14,520 Vol.
<1%
215–239
$8,044 Vol.
<1%
240+
$4,452 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from August 22 12:00 PM ET to August 24, 2026 12:00 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.poly.havingsomuch.fun. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.Elon Musk's typical posting cadence on X, with multiple original tweets and replies logged on August 22 alone, anchors trader expectations for the 40-64 tweet range as the clear favorite at 51.5% implied probability. Recent activity shows steady engagement with SpaceX milestones, political commentary, and platform updates rather than an accelerated or muted pace, supporting moderate volume over the three-day window. The 29.5% probability on fewer than 40 tweets reflects the possibility of a quieter stretch amid competing business demands, while higher bins remain discounted given the absence of catalysts that historically drive spikes. Market-implied odds capture aggregated real-money sentiment on his established habits ahead of the period close.
This market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from August 22 12:00 PM ET to August 24, 2026 12:00 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.poly.havingsomuch.fun. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.poly.havingsomuch.fun. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
Markt eröffnet: Aug 20, 2026, 12:07 PM ET
Volumen
$215,318Enddatum
24. Aug. 2026Markt eröffnet
Aug 20, 2026, 12:07 PM ETAbwicklungsquelle
https://x.com/elonmuskResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from August 22 12:00 PM ET to August 24, 2026 12:00 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.poly.havingsomuch.fun. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.Elon Musk's typical posting cadence on X, with multiple original tweets and replies logged on August 22 alone, anchors trader expectations for the 40-64 tweet range as the clear favorite at 51.5% implied probability. Recent activity shows steady engagement with SpaceX milestones, political commentary, and platform updates rather than an accelerated or muted pace, supporting moderate volume over the three-day window. The 29.5% probability on fewer than 40 tweets reflects the possibility of a quieter stretch amid competing business demands, while higher bins remain discounted given the absence of catalysts that historically drive spikes. Market-implied odds capture aggregated real-money sentiment on his established habits ahead of the period close.
This market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from August 22 12:00 PM ET to August 24, 2026 12:00 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.poly.havingsomuch.fun. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.poly.havingsomuch.fun. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
Volumen
$215,318Enddatum
24. Aug. 2026Markt eröffnet
Aug 20, 2026, 12:07 PM ETAbwicklungsquelle
https://x.com/elonmuskResolver
0x69c47De9D...Elon Musk's typical posting cadence on X, with multiple original tweets and replies logged on August 22 alone, anchors trader expectations for the 40-64 tweet range as the clear favorite at 51.5% implied probability. Recent activity shows steady engagement with SpaceX milestones, political commentary, and platform updates rather than an accelerated or muted pace, supporting moderate volume over the three-day window. The 29.5% probability on fewer than 40 tweets reflects the possibility of a quieter stretch amid competing business demands, while higher bins remain discounted given the absence of catalysts that historically drive spikes. Market-implied odds capture aggregated real-money sentiment on his established habits ahead of the period close.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · Aktualisiert
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