Ongoing containment of the Bundibugyo virus outbreak, with roughly 4,000 confirmed cases and 1,850 deaths concentrated in eastern DRC provinces as of early August 2026, underpins the 96.7% market-implied probability against a pandemic. Official surveillance from WHO, CDC, and ECDC shows sustained transmission limited to remote areas, swift isolation of the 20 Ugandan cases (outbreak declared over in July), and only isolated exports without secondary chains. Low likelihood of sustained global spread stems from the virus's transmission dynamics, effective contact tracing, and absence of urban or intercontinental amplification, consistent with prior Ebola events. Key variables that could alter odds include undetected spread into major transport hubs or emergence of higher-transmissibility variants, though current epidemiological data indicate these remain unlikely before year-end resolution.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · AktualisiertEbola pandemic in 2026?
Ebola pandemic in 2026?
3% Chance
$685,511 Vol.
$685,511 Vol.
31. Dez. 2026
3% Chance
$685,511 Vol.
$685,511 Vol.
31. Dez. 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the World Health Organization explicitly characterizes Ebola virus disease, Ebola, any Ebola strain, or any outbreak of ebola as a “pandemic” in an official public communication between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An explicit characterization includes official WHO statements, reports, press briefings, or publications that clearly describe the outbreak as a “pandemic.” A Public Health Emergency of International Concern (PHEIC) alone will not qualify unless it is also described as a pandemic.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official WHO communications. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Ongoing containment of the Bundibugyo virus outbreak, with roughly 4,000 confirmed cases and 1,850 deaths concentrated in eastern DRC provinces as of early August 2026, underpins the 96.7% market-implied probability against a pandemic. Official surveillance from WHO, CDC, and ECDC shows sustained transmission limited to remote areas, swift isolation of the 20 Ugandan cases (outbreak declared over in July), and only isolated exports without secondary chains. Low likelihood of sustained global spread stems from the virus's transmission dynamics, effective contact tracing, and absence of urban or intercontinental amplification, consistent with prior Ebola events. Key variables that could alter odds include undetected spread into major transport hubs or emergence of higher-transmissibility variants, though current epidemiological data indicate these remain unlikely before year-end resolution.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the World Health Organization explicitly characterizes Ebola virus disease, Ebola, any Ebola strain, or any outbreak of ebola as a “pandemic” in an official public communication between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An explicit characterization includes official WHO statements, reports, press briefings, or publications that clearly describe the outbreak as a “pandemic.” A Public Health Emergency of International Concern (PHEIC) alone will not qualify unless it is also described as a pandemic.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official WHO communications. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
An explicit characterization includes official WHO statements, reports, press briefings, or publications that clearly describe the outbreak as a “pandemic.” A Public Health Emergency of International Concern (PHEIC) alone will not qualify unless it is also described as a pandemic.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official WHO communications. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Markt eröffnet: May 15, 2026, 3:03 PM ET
Volumen
$685,511Enddatum
31. Dez. 2026Markt eröffnet
May 15, 2026, 3:03 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if the World Health Organization explicitly characterizes Ebola virus disease, Ebola, any Ebola strain, or any outbreak of ebola as a “pandemic” in an official public communication between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An explicit characterization includes official WHO statements, reports, press briefings, or publications that clearly describe the outbreak as a “pandemic.” A Public Health Emergency of International Concern (PHEIC) alone will not qualify unless it is also described as a pandemic.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official WHO communications. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Ongoing containment of the Bundibugyo virus outbreak, with roughly 4,000 confirmed cases and 1,850 deaths concentrated in eastern DRC provinces as of early August 2026, underpins the 96.7% market-implied probability against a pandemic. Official surveillance from WHO, CDC, and ECDC shows sustained transmission limited to remote areas, swift isolation of the 20 Ugandan cases (outbreak declared over in July), and only isolated exports without secondary chains. Low likelihood of sustained global spread stems from the virus's transmission dynamics, effective contact tracing, and absence of urban or intercontinental amplification, consistent with prior Ebola events. Key variables that could alter odds include undetected spread into major transport hubs or emergence of higher-transmissibility variants, though current epidemiological data indicate these remain unlikely before year-end resolution.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the World Health Organization explicitly characterizes Ebola virus disease, Ebola, any Ebola strain, or any outbreak of ebola as a “pandemic” in an official public communication between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An explicit characterization includes official WHO statements, reports, press briefings, or publications that clearly describe the outbreak as a “pandemic.” A Public Health Emergency of International Concern (PHEIC) alone will not qualify unless it is also described as a pandemic.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official WHO communications. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
An explicit characterization includes official WHO statements, reports, press briefings, or publications that clearly describe the outbreak as a “pandemic.” A Public Health Emergency of International Concern (PHEIC) alone will not qualify unless it is also described as a pandemic.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official WHO communications. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volumen
$685,511Enddatum
31. Dez. 2026Markt eröffnet
May 15, 2026, 3:03 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Ongoing containment of the Bundibugyo virus outbreak, with roughly 4,000 confirmed cases and 1,850 deaths concentrated in eastern DRC provinces as of early August 2026, underpins the 96.7% market-implied probability against a pandemic. Official surveillance from WHO, CDC, and ECDC shows sustained transmission limited to remote areas, swift isolation of the 20 Ugandan cases (outbreak declared over in July), and only isolated exports without secondary chains. Low likelihood of sustained global spread stems from the virus's transmission dynamics, effective contact tracing, and absence of urban or intercontinental amplification, consistent with prior Ebola events. Key variables that could alter odds include undetected spread into major transport hubs or emergence of higher-transmissibility variants, though current epidemiological data indicate these remain unlikely before year-end resolution.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · Aktualisiert
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