**California’s Proposition 40, a one-time 5% wealth tax on residents worth over $1 billion as of January 1, 2026, qualified for the November 3, 2026 ballot after a labor union gathered sufficient signatures.** Strong opposition from Governor Gavin Newsom, major Democratic-aligned groups including the California Teachers Association and Medical Association, and billionaire-funded campaigns—such as Sergey Brin-backed efforts exceeding $80–90 million—has shaped trader sentiment. Two competing “poison pill” measures (Propositions 41 and 42) on the same ballot are structured to nullify the tax even if it receives majority support. Recent polling shows the measure trailing or narrowly ahead without a clear majority, amid concerns over capital flight, long-term revenue effects, and potential legal challenges to its retroactive and wealth-tax provisions. These factors have produced the current 69.5% implied probability against passage.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · AktualisiertJa
31% Chance
$3,723,876 Vol.
$3,723,876 Vol.
2. Nov. 2026
Ja
31% Chance
$3,723,876 Vol.
$3,723,876 Vol.
2. Nov. 2026
A one-time wealth tax on billionaires has been proposed to potentially appear on California's ballot for the November 3, 2026 general election. You can read more about that here: https://6abc.com/post/california-union-proposes-taxing-billionaires-offset-medicaid-cuts-low-income-people/18066430/
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any proposition containing a one-time tax targeting individuals, households, or family units with wealth, assets, or net worth of at least $1 billion (USD or equivalent) passes in the named election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If no qualifying ballot initiative is certified to appear on the official statewide California ballot as a proposition to be voted on in the stated election by June 25, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (the official cutoff date for new initiatives to be approved), or if all qualifying propositions/initiatives are removed from the ballot or amended before the election such that the main threshold drops below $1 billion, this market will resolve "No".
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of the State of California, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.**California’s Proposition 40, a one-time 5% wealth tax on residents worth over $1 billion as of January 1, 2026, qualified for the November 3, 2026 ballot after a labor union gathered sufficient signatures.** Strong opposition from Governor Gavin Newsom, major Democratic-aligned groups including the California Teachers Association and Medical Association, and billionaire-funded campaigns—such as Sergey Brin-backed efforts exceeding $80–90 million—has shaped trader sentiment. Two competing “poison pill” measures (Propositions 41 and 42) on the same ballot are structured to nullify the tax even if it receives majority support. Recent polling shows the measure trailing or narrowly ahead without a clear majority, amid concerns over capital flight, long-term revenue effects, and potential legal challenges to its retroactive and wealth-tax provisions. These factors have produced the current 69.5% implied probability against passage.
A one-time wealth tax on billionaires has been proposed to potentially appear on California's ballot for the November 3, 2026 general election. You can read more about that here: https://6abc.com/post/california-union-proposes-taxing-billionaires-offset-medicaid-cuts-low-income-people/18066430/
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any proposition containing a one-time tax targeting individuals, households, or family units with wealth, assets, or net worth of at least $1 billion (USD or equivalent) passes in the named election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If no qualifying ballot initiative is certified to appear on the official statewide California ballot as a proposition to be voted on in the stated election by June 25, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (the official cutoff date for new initiatives to be approved), or if all qualifying propositions/initiatives are removed from the ballot or amended before the election such that the main threshold drops below $1 billion, this market will resolve "No".
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of the State of California, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any proposition containing a one-time tax targeting individuals, households, or family units with wealth, assets, or net worth of at least $1 billion (USD or equivalent) passes in the named election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If no qualifying ballot initiative is certified to appear on the official statewide California ballot as a proposition to be voted on in the stated election by June 25, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (the official cutoff date for new initiatives to be approved), or if all qualifying propositions/initiatives are removed from the ballot or amended before the election such that the main threshold drops below $1 billion, this market will resolve "No".
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of the State of California, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Markt eröffnet: Oct 24, 2025, 3:48 PM ET
Volumen
$3,723,876Enddatum
3. Nov. 2026Markt eröffnet
Oct 24, 2025, 3:48 PM ETAbwickler
0x65070BE91...A one-time wealth tax on billionaires has been proposed to potentially appear on California's ballot for the November 3, 2026 general election. You can read more about that here: https://6abc.com/post/california-union-proposes-taxing-billionaires-offset-medicaid-cuts-low-income-people/18066430/
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any proposition containing a one-time tax targeting individuals, households, or family units with wealth, assets, or net worth of at least $1 billion (USD or equivalent) passes in the named election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If no qualifying ballot initiative is certified to appear on the official statewide California ballot as a proposition to be voted on in the stated election by June 25, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (the official cutoff date for new initiatives to be approved), or if all qualifying propositions/initiatives are removed from the ballot or amended before the election such that the main threshold drops below $1 billion, this market will resolve "No".
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of the State of California, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.**California’s Proposition 40, a one-time 5% wealth tax on residents worth over $1 billion as of January 1, 2026, qualified for the November 3, 2026 ballot after a labor union gathered sufficient signatures.** Strong opposition from Governor Gavin Newsom, major Democratic-aligned groups including the California Teachers Association and Medical Association, and billionaire-funded campaigns—such as Sergey Brin-backed efforts exceeding $80–90 million—has shaped trader sentiment. Two competing “poison pill” measures (Propositions 41 and 42) on the same ballot are structured to nullify the tax even if it receives majority support. Recent polling shows the measure trailing or narrowly ahead without a clear majority, amid concerns over capital flight, long-term revenue effects, and potential legal challenges to its retroactive and wealth-tax provisions. These factors have produced the current 69.5% implied probability against passage.
A one-time wealth tax on billionaires has been proposed to potentially appear on California's ballot for the November 3, 2026 general election. You can read more about that here: https://6abc.com/post/california-union-proposes-taxing-billionaires-offset-medicaid-cuts-low-income-people/18066430/
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any proposition containing a one-time tax targeting individuals, households, or family units with wealth, assets, or net worth of at least $1 billion (USD or equivalent) passes in the named election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If no qualifying ballot initiative is certified to appear on the official statewide California ballot as a proposition to be voted on in the stated election by June 25, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (the official cutoff date for new initiatives to be approved), or if all qualifying propositions/initiatives are removed from the ballot or amended before the election such that the main threshold drops below $1 billion, this market will resolve "No".
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of the State of California, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any proposition containing a one-time tax targeting individuals, households, or family units with wealth, assets, or net worth of at least $1 billion (USD or equivalent) passes in the named election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If no qualifying ballot initiative is certified to appear on the official statewide California ballot as a proposition to be voted on in the stated election by June 25, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (the official cutoff date for new initiatives to be approved), or if all qualifying propositions/initiatives are removed from the ballot or amended before the election such that the main threshold drops below $1 billion, this market will resolve "No".
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of the State of California, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volumen
$3,723,876Enddatum
3. Nov. 2026Markt eröffnet
Oct 24, 2025, 3:48 PM ETAbwickler
0x65070BE91...**California’s Proposition 40, a one-time 5% wealth tax on residents worth over $1 billion as of January 1, 2026, qualified for the November 3, 2026 ballot after a labor union gathered sufficient signatures.** Strong opposition from Governor Gavin Newsom, major Democratic-aligned groups including the California Teachers Association and Medical Association, and billionaire-funded campaigns—such as Sergey Brin-backed efforts exceeding $80–90 million—has shaped trader sentiment. Two competing “poison pill” measures (Propositions 41 and 42) on the same ballot are structured to nullify the tax even if it receives majority support. Recent polling shows the measure trailing or narrowly ahead without a clear majority, amid concerns over capital flight, long-term revenue effects, and potential legal challenges to its retroactive and wealth-tax provisions. These factors have produced the current 69.5% implied probability against passage.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · Aktualisiert
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