Recent polling averages place the CDU at 18–20% and the SPD at 12–15% ahead of the September 20, 2026 Berlin state election, reflecting a sustained gap that underpins the 92% trader consensus on CDU securing more votes. The current CDU-SPD governing coalition has faced voter dissatisfaction, with the SPD particularly weakened after the January 2026 power outage and subsequent criticism of crisis management; CDU Mayor Kai Wegner withdrew as lead candidate, replaced by Stefan Evers, while SPD candidate Steffen Krach has not reversed the party's downward trend. Multiple surveys from Forsa, INSA, Infratest dimap, and Civey through mid-to-late August confirm the SPD trailing in fifth place, with no coalition partner dynamics or late shifts narrowing the margin. This positioning aligns with broader state-level patterns where the junior coalition partner often loses ground in the final campaign phase.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · AktualisiertCDU
91% Chance
NEU
NEU
20. Sep. 2026
CDU
91% Chance
NEU
NEU
20. Sep. 2026
Parliamentary elections to elect the Abgeordnetenhaus of Berlin are scheduled to take place in Berlin on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve to “CDU” if CDU wins more valid second votes (Zweitstimme) than SPD in the specified election.
This market will resolve to “SPD” if SPD wins more valid second votes (Zweitstimme) than CDU in the specified election.
This market will resolve 50-50 if both CDU and SPD receive exactly the same number of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) in the specified election.
This market will resolve solely based on the number of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) won by each specified party.
Valid second votes will be counted only where the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin) attributes them to the aforementioned parties. Votes attributed to other parties or electoral designations will not count, regardless of electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent parliamentary-group arrangements. If either party formally merges into a successor party before the election and does not contest separately, this market will resolve 50-50.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve 50-50.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/).Recent polling averages place the CDU at 18–20% and the SPD at 12–15% ahead of the September 20, 2026 Berlin state election, reflecting a sustained gap that underpins the 92% trader consensus on CDU securing more votes. The current CDU-SPD governing coalition has faced voter dissatisfaction, with the SPD particularly weakened after the January 2026 power outage and subsequent criticism of crisis management; CDU Mayor Kai Wegner withdrew as lead candidate, replaced by Stefan Evers, while SPD candidate Steffen Krach has not reversed the party's downward trend. Multiple surveys from Forsa, INSA, Infratest dimap, and Civey through mid-to-late August confirm the SPD trailing in fifth place, with no coalition partner dynamics or late shifts narrowing the margin. This positioning aligns with broader state-level patterns where the junior coalition partner often loses ground in the final campaign phase.
Parliamentary elections to elect the Abgeordnetenhaus of Berlin are scheduled to take place in Berlin on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve to “CDU” if CDU wins more valid second votes (Zweitstimme) than SPD in the specified election.
This market will resolve to “SPD” if SPD wins more valid second votes (Zweitstimme) than CDU in the specified election.
This market will resolve 50-50 if both CDU and SPD receive exactly the same number of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) in the specified election.
This market will resolve solely based on the number of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) won by each specified party.
Valid second votes will be counted only where the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin) attributes them to the aforementioned parties. Votes attributed to other parties or electoral designations will not count, regardless of electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent parliamentary-group arrangements. If either party formally merges into a successor party before the election and does not contest separately, this market will resolve 50-50.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve 50-50.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/).
This market will resolve to “CDU” if CDU wins more valid second votes (Zweitstimme) than SPD in the specified election.
This market will resolve to “SPD” if SPD wins more valid second votes (Zweitstimme) than CDU in the specified election.
This market will resolve 50-50 if both CDU and SPD receive exactly the same number of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) in the specified election.
This market will resolve solely based on the number of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) won by each specified party.
Valid second votes will be counted only where the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin) attributes them to the aforementioned parties. Votes attributed to other parties or electoral designations will not count, regardless of electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent parliamentary-group arrangements. If either party formally merges into a successor party before the election and does not contest separately, this market will resolve 50-50.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve 50-50.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/).
Markt eröffnet: Aug 20, 2026, 2:17 PM ET
Volumen
$491Enddatum
20. Sep. 2026Markt eröffnet
Aug 20, 2026, 2:17 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Parliamentary elections to elect the Abgeordnetenhaus of Berlin are scheduled to take place in Berlin on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve to “CDU” if CDU wins more valid second votes (Zweitstimme) than SPD in the specified election.
This market will resolve to “SPD” if SPD wins more valid second votes (Zweitstimme) than CDU in the specified election.
This market will resolve 50-50 if both CDU and SPD receive exactly the same number of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) in the specified election.
This market will resolve solely based on the number of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) won by each specified party.
Valid second votes will be counted only where the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin) attributes them to the aforementioned parties. Votes attributed to other parties or electoral designations will not count, regardless of electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent parliamentary-group arrangements. If either party formally merges into a successor party before the election and does not contest separately, this market will resolve 50-50.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve 50-50.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/).Recent polling averages place the CDU at 18–20% and the SPD at 12–15% ahead of the September 20, 2026 Berlin state election, reflecting a sustained gap that underpins the 92% trader consensus on CDU securing more votes. The current CDU-SPD governing coalition has faced voter dissatisfaction, with the SPD particularly weakened after the January 2026 power outage and subsequent criticism of crisis management; CDU Mayor Kai Wegner withdrew as lead candidate, replaced by Stefan Evers, while SPD candidate Steffen Krach has not reversed the party's downward trend. Multiple surveys from Forsa, INSA, Infratest dimap, and Civey through mid-to-late August confirm the SPD trailing in fifth place, with no coalition partner dynamics or late shifts narrowing the margin. This positioning aligns with broader state-level patterns where the junior coalition partner often loses ground in the final campaign phase.
Parliamentary elections to elect the Abgeordnetenhaus of Berlin are scheduled to take place in Berlin on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve to “CDU” if CDU wins more valid second votes (Zweitstimme) than SPD in the specified election.
This market will resolve to “SPD” if SPD wins more valid second votes (Zweitstimme) than CDU in the specified election.
This market will resolve 50-50 if both CDU and SPD receive exactly the same number of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) in the specified election.
This market will resolve solely based on the number of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) won by each specified party.
Valid second votes will be counted only where the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin) attributes them to the aforementioned parties. Votes attributed to other parties or electoral designations will not count, regardless of electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent parliamentary-group arrangements. If either party formally merges into a successor party before the election and does not contest separately, this market will resolve 50-50.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve 50-50.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/).
This market will resolve to “CDU” if CDU wins more valid second votes (Zweitstimme) than SPD in the specified election.
This market will resolve to “SPD” if SPD wins more valid second votes (Zweitstimme) than CDU in the specified election.
This market will resolve 50-50 if both CDU and SPD receive exactly the same number of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) in the specified election.
This market will resolve solely based on the number of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) won by each specified party.
Valid second votes will be counted only where the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin) attributes them to the aforementioned parties. Votes attributed to other parties or electoral designations will not count, regardless of electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent parliamentary-group arrangements. If either party formally merges into a successor party before the election and does not contest separately, this market will resolve 50-50.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve 50-50.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/).
Volumen
$491Enddatum
20. Sep. 2026Markt eröffnet
Aug 20, 2026, 2:17 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Recent polling averages place the CDU at 18–20% and the SPD at 12–15% ahead of the September 20, 2026 Berlin state election, reflecting a sustained gap that underpins the 92% trader consensus on CDU securing more votes. The current CDU-SPD governing coalition has faced voter dissatisfaction, with the SPD particularly weakened after the January 2026 power outage and subsequent criticism of crisis management; CDU Mayor Kai Wegner withdrew as lead candidate, replaced by Stefan Evers, while SPD candidate Steffen Krach has not reversed the party's downward trend. Multiple surveys from Forsa, INSA, Infratest dimap, and Civey through mid-to-late August confirm the SPD trailing in fifth place, with no coalition partner dynamics or late shifts narrowing the margin. This positioning aligns with broader state-level patterns where the junior coalition partner often loses ground in the final campaign phase.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · Aktualisiert
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